Brady Choban

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	42	51	3.91	3.65	20.5%	7.9%	—	K 16.1% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.49
2025	24	MIX2 levels	48	56	2.59	2.99	19.6%	6.5%	—	K 16.0% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.59
2026	25	AAALAA	27	36	7.07	4.73	11.6%	14.0%	—	K 10.0% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.55
2027PROJ	26	MLBLAA	57	60	5.18	5.18	11.3%	10.1%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBLAA	24	25	5.11	5.13	12.5%	10.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBLAA	34	36	5.11	5.15	13.2%	10.1%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control60Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsTyler Mizenko (age 26) · Raul Fernandez (age 26) · Justin Lehr (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%11.3%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%1.3%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	1	0	1	7	2	1	0	0%	0.7	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	54.00	2.50	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Angels	1	0	1	7	2	1	0	0%	0.7	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	54.00	1.60	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	51	215	44	17	5	0%	1.2	16.1%	8.8%	7.3%	3.0%	3.91	4.49	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	51	215	44	17	5	0%	1.2	16.1%	8.8%	7.3%	3.0%	3.91	4.49	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	51	215	44	17	5	0%	1.2	20.5%	7.9%	12.6%	2.3%	3.91	3.65	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	230	45	15	3	0%	1.2	16.0%	6.5%	9.6%	1.9%	2.59	3.59	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	230	45	15	3	0%	1.2	16.0%	6.5%	9.6%	1.9%	2.59	3.59	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	230	45	15	3	0%	1.2	19.6%	6.5%	13.0%	1.3%	2.59	2.99	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	27	0	36	172	20	24	2	0%	1.3	10.0%	12.6%	-2.6%	1.3%	7.07	4.55	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	27	0	36	172	20	24	2	0%	1.3	10.0%	12.6%	-2.6%	1.3%	7.07	4.55	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	27	0	36	172	20	24	2	0%	1.3	11.6%	14.0%	-2.3%	1.2%	7.07	4.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	LAA	57	0	60	253	29	25	6	0%	1.1	11.3%	10.1%	1.3%	2.5%	5.18	5.18	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAA	56	0	59	247	31	25	6	0%	1.0	12.5%	10.0%	2.5%	2.6%	5.11	5.13	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAA	54	0	57	240	32	24	7	0%	1.1	13.2%	10.1%	3.1%	2.7%	5.11	5.15	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAA	24	0	25	106	13	11	3	0%	1.0	12.5%	10.0%	2.5%	2.6%	5.11	5.13	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAA	34	0	36	152	20	15	4	0%	1.1	13.2%	10.1%	3.1%	2.7%	5.11	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	60	255	33	26	7	0%	1.0	12.9%	10.1%	2.8%	2.7%	5.11	4.76	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	109	86	23	0%	1.1	12.9%	10.1%	2.8%	2.7%	5.11	4.76	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		118	0	143	624	91	56	13	0%	1.2	14.5%	9.1%	5.5%	2.1%	4.42	4.16	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	0	200	875	127	79	18	0%	1.2	14.5%	9.1%	5.5%	2.1%	4.42	4.16	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Choban (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	11.3%	10.1%	2.5%	—	5.14	12.9%	2.8%	115	-0.04	—	—	—
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	90
Raul Fernandez R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	13.6%	9.3%	2.2%	.270	5.54	20.4%	6.2%	38	+1.19	4.03	165	89
Justin Lehr R 2004 · 4.36 FIP	26	SU	4.36	11.1%	8.3%	2.1%	.283	4.47	15.2%	5.6%	50	+0.11	4.23	148	89
Jason Jester R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	26	SU	4.94	11.9%	9.4%	3.0%	.311	2.88	17.6%	12.5%	60	-2.06	2.48	229	87
Sean Green R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	27	SU	4.07	10.8%	8.6%	1.4%	.291	3.42	17.3%	7.7%	217	-0.65	3.16	260	87
Benjamin Sandoval R 2015 · 4.66 FIP	28	SU	4.66	8.6%	7.8%	2.4%	.253	5.16	5.8%	-5.7%	62	+0.50	4.66	146	86
Bryan Morris R 2013 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	8.5%	3.2%	.243	3.90	17.7%	9.2%	145	-0.88	3.48	231	86
Nate Bump R 2003 · 4.74 FIP	27	SU	4.74	10.2%	12.0%	1.8%	.244	4.27	12.5%	5.5%	112	-0.47	4.06	148	85
Marc Magliaro R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	26	SU	4.77	9.1%	10.1%	2.1%	.302	3.98	17.1%	10.6%	110	-0.79	3.94	125	85
Robert Coles R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	24	SU	4.45	9.8%	9.4%	1.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.29	109	84
Connor Fenlong R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	13.4%	11.8%	1.3%	.313	4.14	22.4%	14.4%	54	-0.02	4.14	102	84
Chris Spurling R 2003 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	11.7%	6.4%	2.8%	.267	4.92	8.8%	3.3%	92	+0.47	4.13	219	84
Willie Eyre R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	9.5%	6.5%	2.9%	.300	4.18	13.2%	4.8%	86	-0.55	2.87	164	84
Starling Peralta R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	9.9%	10.0%	1.7%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	117	84
Chad Paronto R 2001 · 5.28 FIP	26	SU	5.28	12.5%	8.6%	3.9%	.292	3.73	14.9%	8.4%	36	-1.55	3.65	160	84
Kurt Spomer R 2015 · 5.35 FIP	26	SU	5.35	11.1%	7.3%	4.1%	.268	3.43	14.2%	6.2%	135	-1.92	3.17	199	84
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	84
Jonathan Brand R 2024 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	13.6%	10.6%	2.4%	.284	4.87	22.0%	11.9%	115	+0.26	3.34	198	83
Justin Camp R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	140	83
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	12.3%	10.1%	1.02	5.13
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Mike Barlow ('75-'81, -2 WAR*)	1.2	62	14.0%*	9.4%*	0.76*	4.97*