Aaron Rund — OGILVIE

Aaron Rund P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 59 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%16.7%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%2.3%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	25	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	39	0	57	239	56	23	0	0%	1.5	18.0%	11.1%	7.0%	0.0%	3.00	2.98	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	39	0	57	239	56	23	0	0%	1.5	18.0%	11.1%	7.0%	0.0%	3.00	2.98	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	39	0	57	239	56	23	0	0%	1.5	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	0.0%	3.00	2.35	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	36	0	46	208	44	25	1	0%	1.3	16.3%	13.8%	2.5%	0.5%	5.09	3.74	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	36	0	46	208	44	25	1	0%	1.3	16.3%	13.8%	2.5%	0.5%	5.09	3.74	—
2025	26	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	36	0	46	208	44	25	1	0%	1.3	21.2%	12.0%	9.1%	0.5%	5.09	3.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIL	56	0	59	249	42	36	7	0%	1.1	16.7%	14.4%	2.3%	2.7%	5.38	5.38	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	54	0	56	237	41	34	7	0%	1.0	17.2%	14.1%	3.0%	2.9%	5.35	5.41	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIL	50	0	53	223	39	31	7	0%	1.1	17.3%	14.1%	3.2%	3.1%	5.41	5.50	-0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	16	0	17	72	12	10	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	14.1%	3.0%	2.9%	5.35	5.41	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIL	26	0	27	114	20	16	4	0%	1.0	17.3%	14.1%	3.2%	3.1%	5.41	5.50	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	0	44	185	32	26	6	0%	1.0	17.2%	14.1%	3.1%	3.0%	5.39	5.08	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	119	27	0%	1.1	17.2%	14.1%	3.1%	3.0%	5.39	5.08	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		75	0	103	447	77	55	1	0%	1.4	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	0.2%	3.93	3.33	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	0	200	868	150	107	2	0%	1.4	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	0.2%	3.93	3.33	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Rund (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	16.7%	14.4%	2.7%	—	5.45	17.2%	3.1%	109	+0.07	—	—	—
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	89
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	85
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	84
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	82
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	82
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	82
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	82
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	82
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	81
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	81
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	81
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	80
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	17.0%	14.2%	1.12	5.38
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37