Evan Aschenbeck

P South Bend Cubs

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	MIX2 levels	19	15	94	2.39	2.96	18.8%	5.7%	—	K 14.3% · BB 6.6% · FIP 3.54
2027PROJ	26	MLBCHC	11	11	70	4.89	4.89	12.8%	7.5%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBCHC	5	5	31	4.79	4.80	13.7%	7.6%	0.0
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBCHC	8	8	48	4.80	4.84	14.2%	7.8%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control60Command40

CompsMiguel Cienfuegos (age 26) · Jack Snodgrass (age 27) · Kyle Hald (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%12.8%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%5.3%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	94	383	72	22	5	79%	5.0	14.3%	6.6%	7.7%	1.5%	2.39	3.54	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	94	383	72	22	5	79%	5.0	14.3%	6.6%	7.7%	1.5%	2.39	3.54	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	15	94	383	72	22	5	79%	5.0	18.8%	5.7%	13.1%	1.3%	2.39	2.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CHC	11	11	70	296	38	22	8	100%	6.4	12.8%	7.5%	5.3%	2.8%	4.89	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	84	353	48	27	10	100%	6.4	13.7%	7.6%	6.1%	2.9%	4.85	4.86	+0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	81	342	49	27	10	100%	6.2	14.2%	7.8%	6.4%	3.0%	4.86	4.90	0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	78	327	54	24	10	100%	6.5	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	3.1%	4.77	4.73	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	73	307	50	23	10	100%	6.1	16.2%	7.5%	8.6%	3.3%	4.84	4.90	0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	31	131	18	10	4	100%	6.2	13.7%	7.6%	6.1%	2.8%	4.79	4.80	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	48	203	29	16	6	100%	6.0	14.2%	7.8%	6.4%	2.9%	4.80	4.84	0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	54	228	37	16	7	100%	6.0	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.71	4.67	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	57	241	39	18	8	100%	6.3	16.2%	7.5%	8.6%	3.2%	4.77	4.83	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	190	801	123	60	24	100%	6.3	15.3%	7.5%	7.8%	3.0%	4.76	4.40	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	130	63	25	100%	6.3	15.3%	7.5%	7.8%	3.0%	4.76	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		19	15	94	383	55	25	6	79%	5.0	14.3%	6.6%	7.7%	1.5%	2.39	3.54	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	32	200	812	117	54	12	79%	5.0	14.3%	6.6%	7.7%	1.5%	2.39	3.54	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Aschenbeck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	12.8%	7.5%	2.8%	—	4.83	14.7%	7.2%	242	-0.06	—	—	—
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	85
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	82
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	81
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	81
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	80
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	80
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	79
Josh Outman L 2011 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	13.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.302	3.80	21.8%	11.8%	123	-0.23	2.95	380	78
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	78
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	78
John Anderson L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SP-	4.12	11.0%	8.5%	1.6%	.316	4.23	14.3%	5.6%	115	+0.11	4.12	235	78
Lance Davis L 2001 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	11.5%	7.4%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	106	78
Matthew Crownover L 2018 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	377	77
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	77
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	77
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	77
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	77
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	77
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	76
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	77	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.84
Bryan Hickerson ('95)	2.0	81	15.9%	8.1%	1.16	4.72
Travis Harper ('06)	2.1	69	15.0%	7.5%	1.33	4.94
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*
J. C. Ramirez ('13-'19, -0 WAR*)	1.4	72	15.1%*	8.7%*	1.30*	4.83*
Mike Jeffcoat ('83-'94, 1 WAR*)	2.5	83	15.2%*	6.7%*	1.16*	4.65*
Bobby Hogue ('48-'52, 1 WAR*)	1.6	65	14.7%*	8.9%*	1.02*	4.43*