Nick Payero

P Everett AquaSox

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	ROKCIN	4	0	8	10.57	6.10	20.9%	11.6%	—	K 20.9% · BB 11.6% · FIP 5.36
2024	24	MIX4 levels	21	14	88	3.49	3.88	21.0%	6.0%	—	K 16.5% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.21
2025	25	A+SEA	23	16	107	4.61	4.78	21.5%	10.4%	—	K 16.6% · BB 12.0% · FIP 5.81
2027PROJ	27	MLBSEA	10	10	70	5.46	5.46	16.1%	12.2%	-0.4
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBSEA	4	4	25	5.40	5.43	16.7%	12.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBSEA	5	5	36	5.41	5.48	17.0%	12.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · Edgar Alberto Garcia (age 27) · Bryce Morrow (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.46

FIP5.46

K%16.1%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%3.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	4	0	8	43	9	5	2	0%	1.9	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	4.7%	10.57	5.36	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	4	0	8	43	9	5	2	0%	1.9	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	4.7%	10.57	6.10	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	14	88	367	77	22	12	67%	4.2	16.5%	6.3%	10.2%	3.1%	3.49	4.21	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	14	88	367	77	22	12	67%	4.2	16.5%	6.3%	10.2%	3.1%	3.49	4.21	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	21	14	88	367	77	22	12	67%	4.2	21.0%	6.0%	15.0%	3.3%	3.49	3.88	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	23	16	107	460	99	48	18	70%	4.7	16.6%	12.0%	4.6%	4.7%	4.61	5.81	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	23	16	107	460	99	48	18	70%	4.7	16.6%	12.0%	4.6%	4.7%	4.61	5.81	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	23	16	107	460	99	48	18	70%	4.7	21.5%	10.4%	11.1%	3.9%	4.61	4.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SEA	10	10	70	296	48	36	10	100%	7.0	16.1%	12.2%	3.9%	3.3%	5.46	5.46	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	68	287	48	34	10	100%	6.8	16.7%	12.0%	4.7%	3.3%	5.40	5.43	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	65	274	46	33	10	100%	6.5	17.0%	12.0%	4.9%	3.5%	5.41	5.48	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	4	4	25	106	18	13	4	100%	6.2	16.7%	12.0%	4.7%	3.3%	5.40	5.43	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	5	5	36	152	26	18	5	100%	7.2	17.0%	12.0%	4.9%	3.5%	5.41	5.48	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	61	256	43	31	9	100%	6.7	16.9%	12.0%	4.8%	3.4%	5.41	5.08	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	142	102	30	100%	6.8	16.9%	12.0%	4.8%	3.4%	5.41	5.08	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		48	30	203	870	146	83	35	62%	4.2	16.8%	9.6%	7.2%	4.0%	4.35	5.11	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	30	200	859	144	82	35	62%	4.2	16.8%	9.6%	7.2%	4.0%	4.35	5.11	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Payero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.46	16.1%	12.2%	3.3%	—	5.45	16.8%	4.8%	133	-0.01	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	82
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	82
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	82
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	79
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	79
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	79
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	76
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	75
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	75
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	75
Noah Skirrow R 2024 · 4.77 FIP	26	SP-	4.77	11.7%	11.7%	2.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	371	75
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	75
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	74
Terance Marin R 2016 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP-	4.91	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	.294	4.22	12.4%	7.5%	88	-0.69	3.54	322	74
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	73
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	73
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	73
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	73
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	16.6%	12.1%	1.30	5.42
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*