Michael Guzman — OGILVIE

Michael GuzmanSS ACL Rangers

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 165 lbs ROK HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .283 / .285

PA5

HR0

K%27

BB%9

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER36

scouting grade only

EYE64

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	211	170	42	3	2	4	35	47	4	13	2	247	388	359	746	112	314	22	17	344	119	+5	+2	—	—	+5	1.1
2024	18	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	—	218	174	48	9	1	2	35	44	6	14	1	276	412	374	786	98	354	20	16	361	131	+8	+2	—	—	+5	1.5
2025	19	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	50	39	7	3	0	0	11	14	0	1	0	179	360	256	616	77	280	28	22	303	91	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	211	184	31	2	1	3	21	70	4	13	2	168	268	239	507	71	247	33	10	234	45	-14	+2	—	—	+5	-0.8
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	218	188	35	6	1	1	22	65	6	14	1	186	292	245	536	59	267	30	10	246	53	-12	+2	—	—	+5	-0.5
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	50	43	5	2	0	0	7	21	0	1	0	116	240	163	403	47	217	42	14	194	17	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	211	184	31	2	1	3	21	70	4	13	2	168	268	239	507	71	248	33	10	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	—	211	170	42	3	2	4	35	47	4	13	2	247	388	359	746	112	314	22	17	344	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	218	188	35	6	1	1	22	65	6	14	1	186	292	245	536	59	274	30	10	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	—	218	174	48	9	1	2	35	44	6	14	1	276	412	374	786	98	354	20	16	361	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	50	43	5	2	0	0	7	21	0	1	0	116	240	163	403	47	227	42	14	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	—	50	39	7	3	0	0	11	14	0	1	0	179	360	256	616	77	280	28	22	303	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	211	184	31	2	1	3	21	70	4	13	2	168	268	239	507	71	247	33	10	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	218	188	35	6	1	1	22	65	6	14	1	186	292	245	536	59	267	30	10	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	50	43	5	2	0	0	7	21	0	1	0	116	240	163	403	47	217	42	14	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	211	184	31	2	1	3	21	70	4	13	2	168	268	239	507	71	247	33	10	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	218	188	35	6	1	1	22	65	6	14	1	186	292	245	536	59	267	30	10	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	50	43	5	2	0	0	7	21	0	1	0	116	240	163	403	47	217	42	14	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		272	20	0	264	65	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	145	129	27	5	1	2	13	38	2	3	1	209	292	310	602	101	275	26	9	275	73	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	TEX	48%	283	252	55	10	2	5	26	72	3	6	1	218	299	333	632	115	277	25	9	283	78	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	TEX	54%	381	338	73	13	2	7	35	95	5	8	2	216	299	328	627	112	279	25	9	288	81	-9	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	447	398	88	16	3	9	41	111	5	10	2	221	302	344	646	123	280	25	9	291	83	-9	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	486	432	95	17	3	10	45	121	6	11	3	220	302	343	645	123	280	25	9	292	84	-10	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	508	450	99	18	3	10	47	126	6	12	3	220	302	340	642	120	280	25	9	292	84	-10	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	518	458	100	18	3	10	49	129	6	12	3	218	302	336	638	118	280	25	9	292	84	-10	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	520	459	100	18	3	10	50	130	6	12	3	218	303	336	638	118	279	25	10	291	83	-10	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	514	454	99	18	3	10	49	130	6	11	3	218	303	337	640	119	279	25	10	290	82	-11	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	506	446	97	17	3	10	49	129	6	11	2	217	303	336	640	119	278	25	10	287	80	-12	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	TEX	52%	494	438	93	17	2	9	47	127	6	10	2	212	297	322	619	110	276	26	10	283	78	-13	+1	-3	+5	+11	0.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	TEX	52%	476	422	87	15	2	8	45	125	6	9	2	206	292	308	600	102	273	26	9	278	74	-15	+1	-4	+5	+10	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	50	44	10	2	0	1	5	13	1	1	0	227	320	341	661	114	277	26	10	270	73	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	TEX	48%	137	121	27	5	1	3	13	35	2	3	1	223	309	355	664	132	279	26	9	278	78	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	TEX	54%	207	183	40	7	1	4	19	52	3	5	1	219	302	333	636	115	281	25	9	283	81	-5	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	248	220	49	9	1	5	23	62	3	6	1	223	305	341	646	118	282	25	9	286	83	-5	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	272	242	55	10	2	6	25	68	3	6	1	227	307	360	667	132	282	25	9	287	84	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	286	253	57	10	2	6	27	71	4	7	1	225	310	352	662	126	282	25	9	287	84	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	287	254	57	10	2	6	27	71	4	7	1	224	309	350	659	126	282	25	9	287	84	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	285	252	56	10	2	6	27	71	4	6	1	222	307	349	657	127	282	25	9	286	83	-6	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	275	244	54	10	1	6	26	69	3	6	1	221	304	344	648	123	281	25	9	285	82	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	266	235	50	9	1	5	26	68	3	6	1	213	299	323	623	111	280	26	10	282	80	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	TEX	52%	258	228	49	9	1	5	25	67	3	5	1	215	301	329	630	114	278	26	10	278	78	-7	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2038	32	MLB CTX	TEX	52%	247	218	46	8	1	5	24	65	3	5	1	211	298	326	624	115	275	26	10	273	74	-8	+1	-2	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2818	2494	550	99	15	58	267	712	36	63	11	221	305	342	647	121	284	25	9	283	78	-63	+8	-6	+30	+61	3.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	126	23	3	13	62	164	8	15	3	219	304	337	641	118	282	25	10	283	78	-15	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	5762	5096	1085	192	32	104	546	1490	73	143	30	213	298	324	623	111	278	26	9	283	78	-120	+12	-10	+57	+114	5.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	123	22	4	12	62	168	8	16	3	214	299	329	628	115	279	26	10	283	78	-15	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.3	2,880	54	62	218	298	333	+31	+21	5.1	4.6
/162	664	13	14	+7.1	+4.8	1.2	pk7: 4
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Guzman (OGILVIE)	20	30→35	31→36	52→57	64	200/283/285	85	272	1	1	27%	9%	65	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ryan Vega 2016 · A	19	40	35→40	52→45	41	190/245/253	62	253	3	9	25%	5%	42	-2.9	221/274/312	91	286	8	7	24%	6%	66	-1.1	200/263/287	87	275	8	6	29%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Edwin Ventura 2018 · A	20	42	35→30	52→55	39	198/239/256	58	257	3	9	24%	4%	39	-3.1	194/248/246	52	266	2	16	26%	6%	40	-3.0	176/234/198	22	242	0	27	25%	6%	24	-1.7
✕Óscar Mercado 2015 · A	20	37→47	37→50	53→60	42	180/237/249	69	230	5	19	23%	5%	38	-3.2	203/250/272	69	253	4	26	20%	5%	48	-2.5	235/299/388	153	272	15	22	19%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	39	38→40	47→50	39	189/242/268	78	269	6	5	31%	6%	44	-2.8	186/245/258	72	280	3	6	32%	6%	43	-2.8	147/214/205	58	225	0	6	32%	6%	18	-1.5
✕Stanley Martinez 2016 · A	19	40	36→45	48→50	44	189/254/259	70	267	2	9	28%	7%	47	-2.6	203/274/293	90	276	7	8	27%	7%	63	-1.4	202/276/292	90	272	8	7	27%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Alvaro Rubi 2016 · A	19	41	36→30	49→45	50	190/258/252	62	226	3	6	17%	7%	47	-2.5	206/294/284	78	244	4	7	16%	9%	69	-0.9	201/303/279	78	232	4	6	14%	9%	71	-0.2
✕Conner Capel 2017 · A	20	40→45	36→45	52→55	44	190/237/258	67	240	2	13	21%	5%	39	-3.1	205/259/328	123	274	12	11	28%	6%	64	-1.3	213/285/332	119	269	12	19	24%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Luis Pimentel 2009 · A	20	41	35→45	48→50	47	194/249/253	59	233	3	6	18%	6%	43	-2.8	216/269/306	90	253	8	7	17%	6%	63	-1.4	223/274/321	98	252	10	6	16%	5%	69	-0.3
✕Markus Brisker 2011 · A	20	39→36	36→40	50→55	39	186/240/244	58	286	4	18	35%	6%	38	-3.2	182/259/263	81	297	5	19	37%	8%	51	-2.3	161/246/235	74	266	5	23	38%	8%	37	-1.6
✕Daz Cameron 2017 · A	20	40→45	35→50	51→55	37	182/242/243	61	309	2	18	39%	7%	38	-3.2	202/266/323	121	294	10	18	33%	7%	66	-1.1	225/296/393	168	284	19	27	27%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Jose Quero 2019 · A	20	38	39→40	44→30	44	188/251/268	79	246	7	3	26%	7%	48	-2.5	205/261/316	111	263	10	6	25%	7%	62	-1.4	196/247/344	148	225	15	4	21%	6%	68	-0.2
✕Rymer Liriano 2011 · A	20	37→47	41→45	49→55	33	186/229/281	96	294	10	15	39%	5%	42	-2.9	235/283/354	119	322	10	26	29%	5%	79	-0.2	243/295/366	123	333	11	27	29%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Esney Chacon 2021 · A	21	40	35→30	52→55	47	188/243/243	56	235	2	18	20%	7%	38	-3.2	199/259/252	53	308	2	9	33%	7%	47	-2.6	201/262/243	41	313	1	9	33%	7%	42	-1.1
✕Kenny Hart 2009 · A	19	39	35→45	45→50	36	187/240/243	56	275	2	6	31%	4%	38	-3.2	206/286/294	88	287	6	9	28%	7%	68	-1.0	200/295/300	100	268	8	12	26%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Angel Molina 2017 · A	19	37	39→40	50→55	40	183/236/266	82	230	7	15	24%	4%	42	-2.9	195/240/284	89	253	7	8	25%	4%	47	-2.6	176/207/266	90	220	8	0	24%	2%	30	-1.1
✕Granden Goetzman 2012 · A	19	39→44	36→45	51→55	41	187/245/251	65	267	3	12	30%	6%	41	-3.0	199/245/288	89	276	6	13	29%	5%	49	-2.4	213/244/319	106	283	7	25	27%	4%	52	-0.9
✕Miguel Alfonzo 2007 · A	19	37	36→40	46→50	41	176/244/239	63	271	3	9	34%	7%	38	-3.2	198/270/274	76	314	6	10	36%	7%	57	-1.8	192/269/265	73	315	7	9	38%	7%	53	-0.9
✕Argenis Aldazoro 2013 · A	20	35	40→55	48→50	39	177/227/273	96	239	7	8	28%	5%	40	-3.1	204/239/315	111	271	10	8	28%	4%	53	-2.1	221/248/346	125	282	12	9	26%	4%	61	-0.5
✕Michael A. Taylor 2011 · A	20	38→48	37→55	45→60	41	183/239/259	76	257	4	5	29%	6%	41	-3.0	195/242/303	108	291	8	17	34%	5%	52	-2.2	240/298/383	143	310	19	14	28%	7%	90	+0.5
✕Ignacio Valdez 2014 · A	19	38	36→45	49→50	39	180/242/249	69	280	3	11	35%	7%	40	-3.1	173/238/275	102	269	8	7	37%	7%	45	-2.7	141/208/262	122	210	12	5	38%	6%	30	-1.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps