Michael Guzman

SS ACL Rangers

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 165 lbs ROK HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1837ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	17	ROKDSL Rangers B…	211	.247/.388/.359	4	13	38	—	.155/.268/.210
2024	18	ROKDSL Rangers R…	218	.276/.412/.374	2	14	45	—	.168/.287/.222
2025	19	ROKTEX	50	.179/.360/.256	0	1	18	—	.116/.240/.163
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBTEX	185	.203/.280/.278	1	3	60	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBTEX	24	.208/.285/.296	0	0	66	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBTEX	77	.213/.289/.311	1	1	71	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

BB%93

Chase%39

ISO36

Speed35

wRC+30

wOBA28

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .278 / .276

PA32

HR0

K%28

BB%8

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	211	170	42	3	2	4	35	47	4	13	2	247	388	359	746	112	314	22	17	344	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	—	218	174	48	9	1	2	35	44	6	14	1	276	412	374	786	98	354	20	16	361	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	50	39	7	3	0	0	11	14	0	1	0	179	360	256	616	77	280	28	22	303	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	211	181	28	2	1	2	24	59	4	13	2	155	268	210	478	55	208	28	11	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	218	185	31	5	1	1	25	55	6	14	1	168	287	222	509	54	223	25	11	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	50	43	5	2	0	0	7	21	0	1	0	116	240	163	403	47	219	42	14	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	211	181	28	2	1	2	24	59	4	13	2	155	268	210	478	55	213	28	11	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	—	211	170	42	3	2	4	35	47	4	13	2	247	388	359	746	112	314	22	17	344	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	218	185	31	5	1	1	25	55	6	14	1	168	287	222	509	54	229	25	11	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	—	218	174	48	9	1	2	35	44	6	14	1	276	412	374	786	98	354	20	16	361	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	50	43	5	2	0	0	7	21	0	1	0	116	240	163	403	47	227	42	14	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	—	50	39	7	3	0	0	11	14	0	1	0	179	360	256	616	77	280	28	22	303	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	211	181	28	2	1	2	24	59	4	13	2	155	268	210	478	55	208	28	11	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	218	185	31	5	1	1	25	55	6	14	1	168	287	222	509	54	223	25	11	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	50	43	5	2	0	0	7	21	0	1	0	116	240	163	403	47	219	42	14	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	218	185	31	5	1	1	25	55	6	14	1	168	287	222	509	54	223	25	11	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	50	43	5	2	0	0	7	21	0	1	0	116	240	163	403	47	219	42	14	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	185	165	33	6	1	1	16	53	2	3	1	203	280	278	558	75	285	29	9	257	60	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	71	64	13	2	0	1	6	20	1	1	0	208	285	295	580	87	286	28	8	266	66	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	TEX	50%	154	138	29	5	1	2	13	43	2	3	1	212	289	309	598	97	288	28	8	273	71	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	TEX	57%	236	211	45	8	1	4	20	64	3	4	1	216	292	321	613	105	289	27	8	279	75	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	TEX	60%	306	274	60	11	2	5	26	83	3	5	1	219	295	330	625	112	289	27	8	283	78	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	TEX	62%	355	318	70	12	2	7	30	95	4	6	1	221	297	338	634	117	289	27	8	287	80	-8	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	TEX	63%	377	338	74	13	2	7	32	102	4	6	1	220	296	335	631	116	289	27	8	286	79	-9	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	TEX	65%	386	346	75	13	2	7	33	105	4	5	1	218	294	331	625	113	288	27	9	283	78	-10	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	TEX	65%	383	343	74	13	2	7	33	105	4	4	1	216	291	325	616	109	287	27	9	280	75	-11	+0	-1	+4	+8	0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	208	285	296	582	88	286	29	8	267	66	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	TEX	50%	77	69	14	2	0	1	7	21	1	1	0	213	289	311	601	99	287	27	9	274	71	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	TEX	57%	134	120	25	4	1	2	11	37	2	2	1	216	293	324	617	108	288	28	8	280	75	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	TEX	60%	185	165	37	6	1	4	16	50	2	3	1	219	296	334	630	115	289	27	9	285	78	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	TEX	62%	222	199	44	7	1	5	19	60	2	4	1	221	298	342	639	120	289	27	9	289	80	-5	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	TEX	63%	239	213	47	8	1	5	21	64	3	4	1	220	297	339	636	119	288	27	9	287	79	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	TEX	65%	251	224	48	8	1	5	22	68	3	3	1	219	295	335	629	116	288	27	9	285	78	-7	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	TEX	65%	249	223	48	8	1	5	21	68	3	2	1	216	292	328	620	112	286	27	8	281	75	-7	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1381	1235	267	44	6	27	119	375	16	19	6	216	293	327	621	111	286	27	9	284	70	-38	+1	-1	+15	+30	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	126	21	3	13	56	177	8	9	3	217	295	330	625	114	287	27	9	284	70	-18	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2779	2470	509	87	14	43	252	761	35	63	10	206	289	305	594	99	277	27	9	272	70	-64	+4	-2	+25	+50	1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	118	20	3	10	59	178	8	15	2	204	287	301	588	97	274	27	9	272	70	-18	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKACL Rangers · 50 PAwOBA .297 → .195 (−102)K% 28.0% → 41.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.00%	÷0.981	×1.440	—	—	41.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.00%	÷1.016	×0.620	—	×1.008	13.53%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.00%	÷0.991	×0.820	—	×1.008	13.33%
Doubles /BIP	12.00%	÷1.017	×0.720	—	×1.008	8.56%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.138	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.302	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 128, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .297 → .195; ISO .077 → .050; BABIP .280 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Rangers Red · 218 PAwOBA .356 → .234 (−122)K% 20.2% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.18%	÷0.969	×1.220	—	—	25.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.06%	÷0.976	×0.700	—	×1.008	11.60%
HBP% /PA	2.75%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.94%
Singles /BIP	27.69%	÷1.025	×0.680	×0.980	×1.008	18.13%
Doubles /BIP	6.92%	÷1.032	×0.600	×0.980	×1.008	3.97%
Triples /BIP	0.77%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.980	×1.008	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	1.54%	÷1.333	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.55%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .356 → .234; ISO .098 → .049; BABIP .354 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Rangers Blue · 211 PAwOBA .340 → .224 (−116)K% 22.3% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.27%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	28.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.59%	÷1.024	×0.700	—	×1.022	11.60%
HBP% /PA	1.90%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.36%
Singles /BIP	26.83%	÷1.069	×0.680	×1.041	×1.022	18.16%
Doubles /BIP	2.44%	÷0.901	×0.600	×1.041	×1.022	1.73%
Triples /BIP	1.63%	÷1.036	×0.600	×1.041	×1.022	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.25%	÷1.180	×0.470	—	×1.022	1.32%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 114, 2B 80, 3B 107, K 94, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.

Result: wOBA .340 → .224; ISO .112 → .056; BABIP .314 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
	/162	664	7	9	233	273	324	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Kiko Garcia'76-'85 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	12	34	232*	283*	343*	+14	+14	2.2	3.0
#3Kiko Garcia'76-'85 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	/162	664	5	14	232*	283*	343*	+5.7	+6.0	0.9	pk7: 4
#4Tim Bogar'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,710 PA	2.6	1,710	24	13	217*	284*	324*	+11	+37	2.1	2.9
#4Tim Bogar'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,710 PA	/162	664	9	5	217*	284*	324*	+4.2	+14.4	0.8	pk7: 4
#5Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
#5Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	/162	664	3	3	229*	288*	313*	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.1	1,412	25	21	218	291	329	+15	+18	1.8	1.8
	/162	664	12	10	218	291	329	+7.1	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Michael Guzman

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps