Jose Guerra

C DSL Colorado

Age 21 S/R 5'11" / 180 lbs ROK HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1694ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	17	ROKCOL	72	.262/.375/.361	1	0	38	—	.185/.264/.262
2024	18	ROKDSL Colorado	84	.176/.238/.216	0	4	-24	—	.120/.175/.147
2025	19	ROKDSL Colorado	115	.242/.339/.347	1	2	24	—	.153/.239/.194
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBCOL	225	.214/.272/.291	2	3	60	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBCOL	24	.229/.287/.327	0	0	65	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBCOL	78	.233/.291/.340	1	1	69	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Z-Con%80

Whiff%72

K%67

ISO55

wOBA36

Speed31

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .270 / .288

PA39

HR0

K%25

BB%6

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	72	61	16	3	0	1	11	10	0	0	1	262	375	361	736	98	300	14	15	340	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	84	74	13	3	0	0	5	15	1	4	0	176	237	216	454	41	210	18	6	204	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	115	95	23	7	0	1	8	21	6	2	1	242	339	347	687	105	289	18	7	301	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	72	65	12	2	0	1	7	12	0	0	1	185	264	262	525	77	209	17	10	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	84	75	9	2	0	0	4	17	1	4	0	120	175	147	322	27	126	20	5	133	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	115	98	15	4	0	0	5	25	6	2	1	153	239	194	432	41	186	22	4	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	72	65	12	2	0	1	7	12	0	0	1	185	264	262	525	77	212	17	10	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	72	61	16	3	0	1	11	10	0	0	1	262	375	361	736	98	300	14	15	340	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	84	75	9	2	0	0	4	17	1	4	0	120	175	147	322	27	148	20	5	133	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	84	74	13	3	0	0	5	15	1	4	0	176	237	216	454	41	210	18	6	204	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	115	98	15	4	0	0	5	25	6	2	1	153	239	194	432	41	197	22	4	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	115	95	23	7	0	1	8	21	6	2	1	242	339	347	687	105	289	18	7	301	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	72	65	12	2	0	1	7	12	0	0	1	185	264	262	525	77	209	17	10	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	84	79	9	2	0	0	4	17	1	4	0	114	175	139	314	25	126	20	5	133	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	115	103	15	4	0	0	5	25	6	2	1	146	239	184	423	39	186	22	4	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	84	79	9	2	0	0	4	17	1	4	0	114	175	139	314	25	126	20	5	133	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	115	103	15	4	0	0	5	25	6	2	1	146	239	184	423	39	186	22	4	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	COL	0%	225	207	45	9	1	2	13	57	3	3	1	214	272	291	563	76	285	25	6	256	60	-11	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	COL	34%	72	67	15	3	0	1	4	18	1	1	0	218	277	305	581	86	287	25	6	264	65	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	COL	50%	156	143	32	6	1	2	10	39	2	3	1	222	281	316	597	95	288	25	6	270	69	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	COL	57%	238	218	48	9	1	3	15	59	3	4	1	225	285	326	611	102	289	25	6	276	73	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	COL	60%	309	282	64	12	2	5	20	76	4	5	1	227	287	335	622	108	289	25	6	280	76	-9	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	COL	62%	357	326	74	14	2	6	23	87	5	6	2	228	289	341	630	113	289	24	6	283	78	-9	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	COL	63%	379	346	78	15	2	6	25	93	5	6	2	227	288	338	627	111	289	25	7	282	77	-10	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	COL	65%	388	355	79	15	2	6	25	96	5	6	2	225	286	334	620	108	288	25	6	279	75	-11	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	COL	65%	386	353	79	15	2	6	25	97	5	6	2	223	283	327	611	105	286	25	6	275	73	-13	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	COL	34%	24	23	5	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	229	287	327	614	97	300	25	4	277	65	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	COL	50%	78	72	17	3	1	1	5	19	1	1	0	233	291	340	631	107	302	24	6	284	69	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	COL	57%	135	124	28	5	1	2	8	33	2	2	1	236	295	351	646	115	303	24	6	290	73	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	COL	60%	187	170	41	8	2	3	12	46	3	3	1	238	298	360	658	122	304	25	6	295	76	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	COL	62%	223	203	49	9	2	4	15	54	3	4	1	240	300	367	668	127	304	24	7	298	78	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	COL	63%	240	219	53	10	2	5	16	59	3	4	1	239	299	364	663	125	303	25	7	297	77	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	COL	65%	252	231	55	10	2	5	16	62	3	4	1	237	297	359	656	122	302	25	6	293	75	-7	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	COL	65%	251	230	53	10	2	4	16	63	3	4	1	234	294	352	645	118	300	25	6	289	73	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1390	1272	301	56	12	24	89	342	18	22	6	237	296	356	652	119	304	25	6	293	68	-42	+2	-1	+25	+30	1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	141	26	6	11	42	160	8	10	3	237	296	356	652	119	304	25	6	293	68	-20	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2595	2364	512	98	12	36	165	629	38	44	13	217	279	314	592	97	277	24	6	269	68	-71	+3	-2	+42	+50	2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	129	25	3	9	41	158	10	11	3	218	280	316	596	98	279	24	6	269	68	-20	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Colorado · 115 PAwOBA .302 → .203 (−98)K% 18.3% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.26%	÷1.016	×1.220	—	—	21.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.96%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×0.985	4.67%
HBP% /PA	5.22%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	3.60%
Singles /BIP	20.27%	÷1.008	×0.680	×1.010	×0.985	13.60%
Doubles /BIP	9.46%	÷1.011	×0.600	×1.010	×0.985	5.58%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.011	×0.600	×1.010	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.35%	÷1.163	×0.470	—	×0.985	0.54%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 102, 3B 102, K 103, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .302 → .203; ISO .105 → .061; BABIP .289 → .186. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Colorado · 84 PAwOBA .206 → .133 (−74)K% 17.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.86%	÷1.054	×1.220	—	—	20.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.95%	÷0.998	×0.700	—	×0.995	4.15%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.83%
Singles /BIP	16.95%	÷1.014	×0.680	×0.955	×0.995	10.80%
Doubles /BIP	5.08%	÷1.186	×0.600	×0.955	×0.995	2.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.916	×0.600	×0.955	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.038	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 103, 2B 137, 3B 83, K 111, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .206 → .133; ISO .041 → .021; BABIP .210 → .126. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Rockies · 72 PAwOBA .332 → .225 (−107)K% 13.9% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.89%	÷1.017	×1.220	—	—	16.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.28%	÷1.119	×0.700	—	×1.008	9.63%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.006	×0.680	×1.050	×1.008	16.82%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.975	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	3.83%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.96%	÷0.968	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.96%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 100, K 103, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .332 → .225; ISO .098 → .058; BABIP .300 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
#3Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	/162	664	15	4	228*	295*	352*	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.2	1,429	22	22	226	284	333	+26	+24	2.5	2.5
	/162	664	10	10	226	284	333	+11.9	+11.2	1.2	pk7: 2
#4Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
	/162	664	11	1	226*	277*	345*	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#5Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
	/162	664	13	1	218*	277*	341*	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#6Andy Allanson'86-'95 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	16	23	238*	283*	326*	+29	-0	0.3	0.5
	/162	664	7	9	238*	283*	326*	+11.6	-0.1	0.1	pk7: 1

Jose Guerra

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps