Jose Guerra — OGILVIE

Jose GuerraC DSL Colorado

Age 20 S/R 5'11" / 180 lbs ROK HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 98 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .273 / .299

PA8

HR0

K%26

BB%6

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$30M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	72	61	16	3	0	1	11	10	0	0	1	262	375	361	736	98	300	14	15	340	116	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	84	74	13	3	0	0	5	15	1	4	0	176	237	216	454	41	210	18	6	204	24	-8	+1	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	19	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	115	95	23	7	0	1	8	21	6	2	1	242	339	347	687	105	289	18	7	301	90	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	72	66	13	2	0	1	6	14	0	0	1	197	264	273	537	76	251	19	8	249	55	-4	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	84	76	10	2	0	0	3	20	1	4	0	132	175	158	333	26	153	24	4	145	-16	-12	+1	—	—	+2	-0.9
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	115	98	19	5	0	1	5	30	6	2	1	194	275	276	551	82	228	26	4	227	40	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	72	66	13	2	0	1	6	14	0	0	1	197	264	273	537	76	235	19	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	72	61	16	3	0	1	11	10	0	0	1	262	375	361	736	98	300	14	15	340	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	84	76	10	2	0	0	3	20	1	4	0	132	175	158	333	26	169	24	4	145	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	84	74	13	3	0	0	5	15	1	4	0	176	237	216	454	41	210	18	6	204	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	115	98	19	5	0	1	5	30	6	2	1	194	275	276	551	82	257	26	4	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	115	95	23	7	0	1	8	21	6	2	1	242	339	347	687	105	289	18	7	301	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	72	66	13	2	0	1	6	14	0	0	1	197	264	273	537	76	251	19	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	84	80	10	2	0	0	3	20	1	4	0	125	175	150	325	25	153	24	4	145	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	115	103	19	5	0	1	5	30	6	2	1	184	275	262	537	78	228	26	4	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	72	66	13	2	0	1	6	14	0	0	1	197	264	273	537	76	251	19	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	84	80	10	2	0	0	3	20	1	4	0	125	175	150	325	25	153	24	4	145	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	115	103	19	5	0	1	5	30	6	2	1	184	275	262	537	78	228	26	4	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	COL	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		286	25	12	262	63	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	COL	34%	184	168	37	7	1	3	12	47	2	3	1	220	280	327	608	107	288	26	7	274	71	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	COL	48%	313	285	64	12	2	5	21	78	4	5	1	225	287	333	620	109	289	25	7	282	77	-9	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	COL	54%	402	366	84	16	2	8	28	100	5	7	2	230	293	350	643	120	290	25	7	288	81	-9	+1	+0	+7	+9	0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	COL	55%	462	421	98	18	3	10	32	114	6	8	2	233	296	361	657	128	291	25	7	292	84	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	COL	56%	496	451	105	19	3	11	35	122	7	8	2	233	298	361	660	129	291	25	7	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	COL	56%	516	468	109	20	3	12	36	127	7	8	2	233	297	365	663	132	291	25	7	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	COL	55%	520	471	110	20	3	12	37	128	7	9	2	234	299	365	664	132	291	25	7	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	COL	55%	520	470	109	20	3	12	38	129	7	8	2	232	299	364	663	132	290	25	7	294	85	-9	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	517	467	108	20	3	11	38	129	7	8	2	231	299	358	656	126	290	25	7	292	84	-10	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.0
2036	30	MLB MLE	COL	53%	509	460	104	19	2	11	37	129	7	8	2	226	294	348	641	122	288	25	7	289	82	-11	+1	-2	+9	+11	0.8
2037	31	MLB MLE	COL	52%	481	437	98	18	2	10	35	123	6	7	2	224	291	343	634	119	286	26	7	285	79	-12	+1	-3	+9	+10	0.5
2038	32	MLB MLE	COL	56%	450	408	90	16	2	9	33	117	6	7	2	221	289	336	624	115	283	26	7	280	75	-13	+1	-4	+8	+10	0.2
2039	33	MLB MLE	COL	59%	410	372	80	14	2	7	30	109	5	6	2	215	283	320	602	105	279	27	7	273	71	-14	+0	-4	+7	+9	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	COL	34%	63	58	13	3	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	224	286	328	613	103	303	25	6	279	71	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	COL	48%	152	139	33	6	1	3	10	38	2	2	1	237	298	360	658	122	305	25	7	288	77	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	COL	54%	218	198	48	9	2	5	15	54	3	4	1	242	306	384	689	141	306	25	7	294	81	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	COL	55%	256	233	57	11	2	6	18	63	3	4	1	245	307	386	693	142	307	25	7	299	84	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	COL	56%	278	252	62	12	2	7	20	68	4	5	1	246	312	393	704	147	307	24	7	301	85	-5	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	COL	56%	290	263	64	12	2	7	21	71	4	5	1	243	309	384	693	141	307	24	7	302	86	-5	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	COL	55%	288	261	64	12	2	7	21	71	4	5	1	245	311	387	698	142	307	25	7	302	86	-5	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	COL	55%	285	258	63	12	2	7	21	71	4	5	1	244	311	388	699	143	307	25	7	301	85	-5	+1	-0	+5	+6	0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	276	250	61	11	2	7	20	69	4	4	1	244	310	388	698	144	306	25	7	299	84	-5	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	COL	53%	268	243	58	11	2	6	20	68	3	4	1	239	305	374	679	136	304	25	7	296	82	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	COL	52%	251	228	54	10	1	6	18	64	3	4	1	237	301	368	670	132	302	25	7	292	79	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	COL	56%	253	230	53	10	1	6	18	66	3	4	1	230	295	361	656	130	298	26	7	286	75	-7	+0	-2	+5	+5	0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	COL	59%	242	219	49	9	1	5	18	64	3	4	1	224	292	342	634	119	293	26	7	278	71	-8	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3120	2832	679	128	20	73	224	783	41	51	12	240	305	376	681	137	305	25	7	295	79	-69	+5	-8	+56	+68	5.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	141	27	4	15	47	163	9	11	2	239	305	375	680	136	304	25	7	295	79	-14	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6059	5491	1239	228	31	123	427	1518	83	98	26	226	291	346	637	120	287	25	7	285	79	-129	+9	-15	+103	+125	9.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	132	24	3	13	46	163	9	11	3	224	290	341	632	117	285	25	7	285	79	-15	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#5Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.8	3,217	65	51	228	290	349	+57	+32	7.5	6.5
/162	664	13	11	+11.9	+6.6	1.5	pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Guerra (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	213/273/299	86	286	1	1	26%	6%	63	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	42→47	41→50	50	44	203/259/304	102	267	7	10	26%	7%	59	-1.7	221/283/344	123	281	11	10	24%	7%	77	-0.3	231/280/377	146	276	15	12	22%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	41	195/245/269	75	266	5	9	28%	6%	45	-2.7	236/283/325	89	313	8	10	26%	6%	72	-0.7	247/301/337	90	312	4	24	21%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→44	39→45	53→50	43	195/254/284	89	269	5	13	28%	7%	53	-2.1	216/286/322	106	302	9	13	29%	9%	74	-0.6	216/290/325	109	297	11	14	29%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Jean Batista 2012 · A	20	43	40→55	50→45	36	208/238/300	92	279	7	8	28%	4%	49	-2.4	219/244/339	120	282	10	7	26%	3%	61	-1.5	224/238/371	147	277	12	6	24%	1%	63	-0.4
✕Alejandro Flores 2016 · A	20	37	39→50	45→40	43	182/248/265	83	263	7	5	32%	8%	46	-2.6	201/260/300	99	294	8	6	32%	7%	58	-1.7	200/255/329	129	272	11	4	29%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Riley Unroe 2016 · A	20	43→48	36→45	44→55	44	205/262/267	62	280	4	8	27%	7%	51	-2.2	194/260/260	66	281	4	12	30%	8%	49	-2.4	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Miguel Gómez 2013 · A	20	42→52	38→50	49→40	41	199/257/279	80	273	4	6	28%	6%	53	-2.1	221/266/318	97	290	7	5	25%	5%	64	-1.3	271/289/403	131	306	13	1	16%	2%	89	+0.4
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42→41	36→45	47→45	43	198/272/267	70	271	3	8	27%	6%	56	-1.9	199/300/314	115	273	13	6	30%	9%	79	-0.2	175/316/278	103	239	9	4	27%	12%	76	-0.2
✕Josh Johnson 2006 · A	20	43→49	39→45	48→50	50	203/280/297	94	266	5	9	24%	9%	65	-1.2	218/304/287	69	285	3	10	22%	11%	72	-0.7	244/312/343	100	289	8	16	17%	9%	85	+0.1
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	53	-2.1	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	71	-0.8	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2022 · A	20	44	40→55	52→50	40	212/257/310	97	289	6	9	28%	5%	59	-1.7	208/259/315	107	277	10	9	27%	6%	61	-1.5	228/287/392	163	266	21	11	23%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→50	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	52	-2.2	204/247/318	114	284	10	6	31%	5%	57	-1.8	161/223/251	90	239	8	7	35%	7%	32	-1.1
✕Jose Marquez 2018 · A	20	41	37→50	44→50	40	195/244/271	76	263	4	4	27%	5%	45	-2.7	217/261/322	105	296	8	7	28%	5%	63	-1.3	200/247/320	120	277	13	10	32%	5%	55	-0.6
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→49	41→45	47→55	46	196/269/296	99	264	8	11	28%	8%	61	-1.5	204/280/290	86	281	5	16	27%	8%	63	-1.3	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	38→44	40→45	54→50	40	185/249/285	100	275	6	9	34%	7%	51	-2.2	203/274/314	111	281	9	13	29%	8%	68	-1.0	202/276/313	110	274	9	14	28%	9%	65	-1.0
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→46	40→50	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	63	-1.3	225/292/371	146	302	16	5	30%	7%	87	+0.4	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Marcus Littlewood 2013 · A	21	40	40→45	48→45	41	198/249/288	90	271	8	7	29%	6%	51	-2.2	198/267/305	107	269	9	5	28%	8%	62	-1.4	204/271/311	107	262	9	4	25%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Jon Del Campo 2007 · A	19	43	38→45	45→55	46	205/268/282	77	271	6	5	26%	8%	57	-1.8	205/257/287	82	297	4	5	30%	6%	53	-2.1	267/298/376	109	332	10	18	22%	3%	90	+0.3
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	45→48	42→50	47→45	46	221/286/323	102	285	10	12	26%	8%	74	-0.6	228/311/363	135	276	12	9	21%	10%	93	+0.8	222/308/359	137	264	13	9	20%	10%	88	+0.4
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→41	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	59	-1.7	214/277/357	143	320	16	4	36%	7%	78	-0.3	203/271/348	146	303	18	4	37%	7%	72	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps