Jesus Abreu — OGILVIE

Jesus AbreuC DSL Marlins

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 79 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .271 / .277

PA6

HR0

K%32

BB%8

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	64	50	12	2	1	0	8	14	4	2	0	240	387	320	707	80	316	22	12	326	107	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	104	81	14	4	0	0	15	34	6	0	0	173	343	222	565	49	286	33	14	279	75	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	19	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	89	70	12	3	1	2	14	27	4	1	0	171	341	329	669	157	238	30	16	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	64	53	10	1	1	0	5	20	4	2	0	189	306	245	552	57	256	31	8	243	51	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	104	87	9	2	0	0	9	49	6	0	0	103	235	126	362	23	215	47	9	183	10	-11	+0	—	—	+2	-0.9
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	89	76	8	2	1	1	8	40	4	1	0	105	227	197	425	92	173	45	9	189	14	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	64	53	10	1	1	0	5	20	4	2	0	189	306	245	552	57	286	31	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	64	50	12	2	1	0	8	14	4	2	0	240	387	320	707	80	316	22	12	326	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	104	87	9	2	0	0	9	49	6	0	0	103	235	126	362	23	225	47	9	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	104	81	14	4	0	0	15	34	6	0	0	173	343	222	565	49	286	33	14	279	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	89	76	8	2	1	1	8	40	4	1	0	105	227	197	425	92	194	45	9	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	89	70	12	3	1	2	14	27	4	1	0	171	341	329	669	157	238	30	16	312	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	64	55	10	1	1	0	5	20	4	2	0	182	306	236	543	55	256	31	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	104	88	9	2	0	0	9	49	6	0	0	102	235	125	360	23	215	47	9	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	89	77	8	2	1	1	8	40	4	1	0	104	227	195	422	91	173	45	9	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	64	55	10	1	1	0	5	20	4	2	0	182	306	236	543	55	256	31	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	104	88	9	2	0	0	9	49	6	0	0	102	235	125	360	23	215	47	9	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	89	77	8	2	1	1	8	40	4	1	0	104	227	195	422	91	173	45	9	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		287	33	0	254	58	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	167	149	31	6	1	2	13	51	3	4	1	208	285	302	587	94	289	31	8	267	67	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	300	268	56	10	2	5	24	89	5	8	2	209	286	317	603	108	290	30	8	276	73	-10	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	392	351	75	14	3	7	31	115	7	10	3	214	290	330	621	117	291	29	8	282	77	-11	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	455	408	88	16	3	9	36	132	8	12	4	216	292	336	628	120	292	29	8	286	79	-11	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	491	440	95	17	3	10	39	142	9	13	4	216	293	336	629	120	293	29	8	288	81	-11	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	512	457	99	18	3	11	41	148	9	13	4	217	294	341	635	125	292	29	8	289	82	-11	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	520	463	100	18	3	11	43	151	9	13	4	216	295	339	634	123	292	29	8	289	82	-11	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	520	463	100	18	3	11	43	152	9	13	4	216	295	339	634	123	292	29	8	288	81	-12	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	515	458	98	17	3	11	43	151	9	13	4	214	294	336	630	122	291	29	8	286	80	-12	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	507	451	95	17	3	10	42	150	9	12	4	211	291	328	619	118	289	30	8	283	78	-13	+1	-2	+9	+11	0.5
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	479	428	89	16	3	9	40	143	8	12	4	208	288	322	610	114	287	30	8	279	75	-14	+1	-3	+9	+10	0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	447	399	82	14	3	8	37	136	8	11	3	206	286	316	602	110	284	30	8	274	71	-15	+1	-4	+8	+10	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	57	52	10	2	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	192	263	288	552	96	281	30	7	247	67	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	145	130	27	5	1	2	11	43	3	4	1	208	285	308	592	100	283	30	8	256	73	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	213	190	39	7	1	4	17	62	4	5	2	205	284	316	600	111	284	29	8	262	77	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	252	226	48	8	2	5	20	73	4	6	2	212	288	332	620	119	284	29	8	265	79	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	275	246	53	9	2	6	22	80	5	7	2	215	293	341	635	126	285	29	8	267	81	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	288	258	54	9	2	6	23	83	5	7	2	209	287	329	616	120	284	29	8	269	82	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	288	257	54	9	2	6	24	84	5	7	2	210	290	331	621	121	284	29	8	269	82	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	285	254	54	9	2	6	24	83	5	7	2	213	293	335	628	122	284	29	8	268	81	-6	+1	-0	+5	+6	0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	275	245	52	9	2	6	23	81	5	7	2	212	293	339	632	127	283	29	8	266	80	-7	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	267	238	49	8	2	5	22	79	5	7	2	206	287	319	606	113	282	30	8	263	78	-7	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	250	223	45	8	1	5	21	75	4	6	2	202	282	314	596	112	279	30	8	259	75	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	232	207	41	7	1	4	19	70	4	6	2	198	278	300	578	101	276	30	8	254	71	-8	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2827	2526	526	90	18	56	230	830	50	70	21	208	287	325	612	116	285	29	8	264	75	-73	+6	-6	+50	+61	3.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	121	21	4	13	53	191	11	16	5	208	287	325	612	117	284	29	8	264	75	-17	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5568	4957	1036	186	35	105	454	1671	107	137	41	209	289	324	614	115	290	30	8	280	75	-139	+10	-10	+95	+115	7.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	121	22	4	12	53	195	12	16	5	209	289	323	612	114	290	30	8	280	75	-17	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#4Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#5Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.4	2,905	58	73	214	289	334	+52	+28	6.1	5.4
/162	664	13	17	+11.9	+6.4	1.4	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Abreu (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	194/271/277	83	287	1	2	32%	8%	58	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brandon Barnes 2006 · A	20	37→47	38→55	47→50	37	184/237/264	80	266	6	6	32%	5%	41	-3.0	182/229/258	76	281	5	7	35%	5%	36	-3.3	243/288/366	124	328	11	16	28%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/248/255	81	275	5	19	36%	8%	45	-2.7	193/258/268	75	281	5	10	31%	7%	51	-2.3	172/238/215	43	239	3	6	27%	7%	30	-1.1
✕Jase Bowen 2021 · A	20	41→40	36→50	50→55	39	192/247/263	71	293	3	8	34%	6%	45	-2.7	190/249/299	109	289	12	14	37%	5%	55	-2.0	203/254/335	133	288	14	24	34%	5%	62	-0.9
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	41	-3.0	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	43	-2.8	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	24	-1.1
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→41	39→55	47→45	39	169/233/258	89	267	6	8	37%	7%	39	-3.1	207/271/343	136	302	13	8	34%	8%	73	-0.6	206/286/370	164	268	21	5	30%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Johnni Turbo 2009 · A	20	37→47	37→40	54→55	36	184/222/257	73	263	4	13	31%	4%	33	-3.6	211/247/290	79	307	4	16	31%	4%	50	-2.3	254/283/341	87	306	5	19	18%	3%	73	-0.4
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2008 · A	19	37	38→45	46→50	37	179/239/262	83	292	6	10	38%	7%	42	-2.9	183/273/286	103	276	11	8	35%	9%	62	-1.4	165/268/271	106	240	13	6	34%	10%	56	-0.6
✕Emilio Guerrero 2013 · A	20	38→42	37→45	47→45	37	184/233/259	75	278	4	7	34%	5%	38	-3.2	213/258/302	89	294	7	8	29%	5%	57	-1.8	218/255/332	114	290	9	5	28%	4%	61	-0.8
✕Luis Liberato 2016 · A	20	37→47	37→50	53→50	41	180/242/256	76	270	4	13	33%	7%	42	-2.9	209/260/327	118	304	9	6	32%	7%	64	-1.3	213/280/360	147	293	15	9	31%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Stone Garrett 2016 · A	20	41→39	35→60	49→50	38	198/237/257	59	280	3	7	29%	5%	38	-3.2	171/211/255	84	305	6	8	44%	4%	29	-3.8	221/282/389	168	300	20	11	32%	7%	86	+0.2
✕David Kandilas 2011 · A	20	41→44	38→45	51→55	39	200/238/278	78	271	5	10	28%	5%	44	-2.8	217/271/320	103	285	7	15	25%	6%	67	-1.1	215/276/314	99	281	7	19	25%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2007 · A	20	35	37→45	48→45	34	175/223/246	71	263	5	6	34%	4%	32	-3.7	209/264/290	81	278	5	5	25%	5%	57	-1.8	217/275/301	85	280	4	3	23%	5%	63	-0.6
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2010 · A	19	38	38→45	51→50	38	189/234/265	77	255	6	13	28%	4%	40	-3.0	216/275/340	124	268	12	12	23%	6%	74	-0.6	220/275/339	119	277	13	9	24%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Wilfredo Lara 2023 · A	19	37→40	38→45	49→50	40	178/244/259	80	265	5	10	33%	6%	43	-2.8	190/263/291	101	272	9	13	31%	8%	58	-1.7	175/255/268	93	250	8	18	31%	9%	48	-1.4
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	42	-2.9	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	40	-3.0	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	17	-1.4
✕James Harris 2014 · A	20	36→46	36→40	46→50	42	175/238/243	68	248	3	10	29%	6%	37	-3.3	209/269/298	89	302	7	12	31%	7%	61	-1.5	221/283/309	88	314	7	14	30%	7%	66	-0.8
✕Jalen Miller 2017 · A	20	37→43	38→45	50	37	185/224/263	78	253	5	9	29%	4%	36	-3.4	198/239/300	102	266	9	9	28%	5%	50	-2.3	180/240/294	114	233	12	18	28%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	40	37→40	50→55	42	192/252/267	75	262	4	12	27%	6%	48	-2.5	202/274/290	88	285	7	19	30%	8%	61	-1.5	196/282/285	89	259	11	29	27%	9%	63	-0.8
✕Matthew Lugo 2021 · A	20	43→48	37→55	51→50	40	202/261/274	72	302	4	7	33%	6%	53	-2.1	223/270/330	107	303	9	11	28%	5%	68	-1.0	219/269/376	157	284	16	17	29%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Diomedes Del Rio 2017 · A	19	38	36→55	53→50	41	181/253/249	68	278	3	8	34%	7%	45	-2.7	199/265/293	94	283	4	9	29%	7%	58	-1.7	197/264/318	122	274	4	11	28%	7%	62	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps