Jesus Abreu

C DSL Marlins

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1842ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	17	ROKMIA	64	.240/.387/.320	0	2	44	—	.173/.306/.231
2024	18	ROKMIA	104	.173/.343/.222	0	0	11	—	.106/.255/.129
2025	19	ROKMIA	89	.171/.341/.329	2	1	10	—	.107/.239/.200
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBMIA	199	.191/.273/.266	1	4	55	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBMIA	24	.189/.272/.269	0	1	61	0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBMIA	77	.194/.276/.281	1	2	65	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

ISO80

Chase%77

BB%65

Speed62

wOBA39

wRC+33

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .271 / .263

PA35

HR0

K%33

BB%8

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	64	50	12	2	1	0	8	14	4	2	0	240	387	320	707	80	316	22	12	326	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	104	81	14	4	0	0	15	34	6	0	0	173	343	222	565	49	286	33	14	279	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	89	70	12	3	1	2	14	27	4	1	0	171	341	329	669	157	238	30	16	312	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	64	52	9	1	1	0	6	17	4	2	0	173	306	231	537	58	214	27	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	104	85	9	2	0	0	11	41	6	0	0	106	255	129	384	24	178	39	11	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	89	75	8	2	1	1	9	34	4	1	0	107	239	200	439	93	140	38	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	64	52	9	1	1	0	6	17	4	2	0	173	306	231	537	58	243	27	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	64	50	12	2	1	0	8	14	4	2	0	240	387	320	707	80	316	22	12	326	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	104	85	9	2	0	0	11	41	6	0	0	106	255	129	384	24	196	39	11	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	104	81	14	4	0	0	15	34	6	0	0	173	343	222	565	49	286	33	14	279	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	89	75	8	2	1	1	9	34	4	1	0	107	239	200	439	93	171	38	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	89	70	12	3	1	2	14	27	4	1	0	171	341	329	669	157	238	30	16	312	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	64	54	9	1	1	0	6	17	4	2	0	167	306	222	529	56	214	27	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	104	86	9	2	0	0	11	41	6	0	0	105	255	128	383	23	178	39	11	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	89	76	8	2	1	1	9	34	4	1	0	105	239	197	436	92	140	38	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	104	86	9	2	0	0	11	41	6	0	0	105	255	128	383	23	178	39	11	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	89	76	8	2	1	1	9	34	4	1	0	105	239	197	436	92	140	38	10	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	199	177	33	6	1	1	16	65	4	4	2	191	273	266	538	75	287	33	8	250	55	-11	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	71	64	12	2	0	1	6	23	1	2	1	196	277	281	558	85	288	32	8	258	61	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	50%	155	138	28	5	1	2	13	49	3	4	2	200	281	294	575	94	289	32	8	264	65	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	237	211	43	8	2	3	20	73	4	6	2	204	285	305	590	101	291	31	8	270	69	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	60%	307	273	56	10	2	5	26	93	5	8	3	207	288	314	602	107	291	30	8	274	72	-10	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	62%	356	317	66	12	2	6	30	107	6	9	4	209	290	321	611	112	291	30	8	278	74	-11	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	63%	379	338	71	13	2	7	32	114	6	10	4	208	289	319	607	110	290	30	8	277	73	-12	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	65%	387	346	70	13	2	6	32	118	6	9	4	206	286	314	600	108	289	30	8	274	71	-13	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	65%	385	344	70	13	2	6	32	118	6	9	4	204	284	308	591	104	287	31	8	270	69	-14	+0	-1	+7	+8	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	8	0	1	0	189	272	269	541	79	279	33	8	251	61	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	50%	77	70	13	2	0	1	6	24	1	2	1	194	276	281	557	87	280	31	8	257	65	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	134	120	24	4	1	2	11	41	2	3	1	197	279	292	571	94	281	31	8	262	69	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	60%	185	165	33	6	1	3	15	56	3	5	2	200	282	300	582	100	282	30	8	267	72	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	62%	222	197	40	7	1	4	19	67	4	6	2	203	283	307	591	105	281	30	9	270	74	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	63%	240	214	42	7	1	4	20	72	4	6	3	202	282	305	587	103	281	30	8	269	73	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	65%	252	225	45	8	1	4	21	77	4	6	3	200	280	300	581	101	280	31	8	266	71	-9	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	65%	250	223	44	8	1	4	21	77	4	6	3	197	278	294	572	97	278	31	8	262	69	-9	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1384	1236	245	43	6	22	115	422	22	35	15	198	278	296	574	98	279	30	8	265	65	-48	+1	-1	+25	+30	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	115	20	3	10	54	198	10	16	7	198	278	295	572	97	280	30	8	265	65	-22	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2569	2274	447	82	15	37	220	798	52	61	24	197	282	295	577	98	282	31	9	265	65	-81	+2	-2	+41	+50	1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	113	21	4	9	56	202	13	15	6	197	283	294	577	97	283	31	9	265	65	-23	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Marlins · 89 PAwOBA .308 → .183 (−126)K% 30.3% → 38.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.34%	÷0.973	×1.220	—	—	38.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.73%	÷1.029	×0.700	—	×0.985	10.54%
HBP% /PA	4.49%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	3.10%
Singles /BIP	13.95%	÷0.955	×0.680	×0.950	×0.985	9.30%
Doubles /BIP	6.98%	÷1.073	×0.600	×0.950	×0.985	3.65%
Triples /BIP	2.33%	÷1.097	×0.600	×0.950	×0.985	1.19%
Home runs /BIP	4.65%	÷1.383	×0.470	—	×0.985	1.56%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 91, 2B 115, 3B 119, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .308 → .183; ISO .157 → .066; BABIP .238 → .140. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Marlins · 104 PAwOBA .279 → .185 (−94)K% 32.7% → 39.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.69%	÷1.004	×1.220	—	—	39.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.42%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×0.995	10.07%
HBP% /PA	5.77%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	4.02%
Singles /BIP	21.28%	÷0.976	×0.680	×0.950	×0.995	14.01%
Doubles /BIP	8.51%	÷1.059	×0.600	×0.950	×0.995	4.56%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.933	×0.600	×0.950	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.940	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 87, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .279 → .185; ISO .049 → .027; BABIP .286 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Marlins · 64 PAwOBA .329 → .233 (−96)K% 21.9% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.88%	÷1.006	×1.220	—	—	26.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.84%
HBP% /PA	6.25%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	4.41%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.968	×0.680	—	×1.008	17.70%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷0.990	×0.600	—	×1.008	3.39%
Triples /BIP	2.78%	÷1.150	×0.600	—	×1.008	1.46%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.285	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 94, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .329 → .233; ISO .080 → .049; BABIP .316 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Marc Hill'73-'86 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,047 PA	3.1	2,047	34	1	218*	292*	337*	+35	-0	2.6	3.3
#3Marc Hill'73-'86 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,047 PA	/162	664	11	0	218*	292*	337*	+11.4	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.1	1,421	23	35	207	284	313	+25	+24	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	11	16	207	284	313	+11.9	+11.2	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
	/162	664	13	1	218*	277*	341*	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#5Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
#5Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	/162	664	3	1	214*	271*	292*	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#6Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
	/162	664	8	2	211*	275*	330*	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1

Jesus Abreu

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps