Jesus Abreu — OGILVIE

Jesus AbreuC DSL Marlins

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs ROK HR -4%BB +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 2.6 · 2032

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .271 / .299

PA79

HR1

K%31

BB%8

MLB%0%

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.6peak

2032

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.6	$25M	+$24M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.6	$26M	+$25M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.5	$25M	+$24M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.3	$24M	+$20M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+2.0	$22M	+$15M
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.7	$19M	+$11M
Totals		$22M		$140M	+$118M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	64	53	10	1	1	0	5	20	4	2	0	.189	.306	.245	.552	.057	.286	31	8	.244	45	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	104	87	9	2	0	0	9	49	6	0	0	.103	.235	.126	.362	.023	.225	47	9	.183	-2	-12	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.7
2025	19	ROK	DSL Marlins	89	76	7	2	0	1	8	41	4	1	0	.092	.216	.158	.374	.066	.171	46	9	.180	-4	-10	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	MIA	79	72	15	3	1	1	6	25	1	1	0	.208	.278	.319	.598	.111	.289	32	8	.262	59	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	21	MLB 11%	MIA	167	149	33	6	1	4	14	49	2	3	1	.221	.297	.356	.653	.134	.292	29	8	.285	76	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2028	22	MLB 28%	MIA	300	267	60	11	2	8	26	85	4	6	1	.225	.303	.371	.674	.146	.293	28	9	.298	86	-5	+1	+0	+5	+8	1.0
2029	23	MLB 48%	MIA	392	348	79	14	2	11	36	109	5	8	2	.227	.308	.374	.682	.147	.294	28	9	.306	93	-3	+1	+0	+7	+11	1.6
2030	24	MLB 62%	MIA	455	404	92	16	3	13	42	124	6	9	2	.228	.310	.379	.688	.151	.294	27	9	.311	97	-2	+1	+0	+8	+13	2.1
2031	25	MLB 80%	MIA	491	434	101	18	3	15	47	133	7	10	2	.233	.318	.392	.709	.159	.295	27	10	.315	99	-1	+1	+0	+9	+14	2.4
2032	26	MLB 94%	MIA	512	450	104	18	3	16	50	139	7	10	2	.231	.318	.391	.709	.160	.295	27	10	.316	100	+0	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.6
2033	27	MLB	MIA	520	457	106	19	3	16	51	141	7	10	2	.232	.318	.392	.710	.160	.295	27	10	.316	100	+0	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.6
2034	28	MLB	MIA	520	456	106	19	3	16	52	142	7	9	1	.232	.320	.393	.713	.160	.295	27	10	.315	99	-0	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.5
2035	29	MLB	MIA	515	452	103	18	3	15	51	142	7	8	1	.228	.316	.381	.696	.153	.294	28	10	.313	98	-1	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.3
2036	30	MLB	MIA	507	444	101	18	3	15	51	142	7	7	1	.227	.317	.383	.700	.155	.293	28	10	.310	95	-3	+1	-2	+9	+14	2.0
2037	31	MLB	MIA	479	422	94	16	3	14	48	136	6	5	0	.223	.311	.374	.685	.152	.291	28	10	.306	93	-4	+1	-3	+9	+14	1.7
2038	32	MLB	MIA	447	394	86	15	2	12	44	129	6	2	0	.218	.306	.358	.664	.140	.290	29	10	.302	89	-6	+0	-4	+8	+13	1.2
2039	33	MLB	MIA	407	359	77	13	2	11	40	120	5	1	0	.214	.302	.354	.656	.139	.288	29	10	.296	85	-7	+0	-4	+7	+12	0.8
2040	34	MLB	MIA	354	312	66	11	2	9	35	108	4	0	0	.212	.299	.346	.645	.135	.286	31	10	.290	80	-8	+0	-5	+6	+10	0.3
2041	35	MLB	MIA	296	261	53	9	1	7	29	93	4	0	0	.203	.293	.326	.618	.123	.284	31	10	.282	74	-9	+0	-6	+5	+8	-0.1
2042	36	MLB	MIA	238	210	41	7	1	5	23	77	3	0	0	.195	.284	.310	.593	.114	.281	32	10	.273	67	-9	+0	-6	+4	+7	-0.4
2043	37	MLB	MIA	179	158	30	5	1	3	17	60	2	0	0	.190	.277	.291	.568	.101	.277	34	9	.263	60	-8	+0	-7	+3	+5	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7115	6265	1373	241	40	192	684	2064	104	92	15	.219	.306	.362	.669	.143	.292	29	10	.300	88	-99	+12	-38	+127	+202	20.8
/ 162G	—			650	572	126	22	4	18	62	189	10	8	1	.220	.307	.367	.675	.147	.293	29	10	.300	88	-9	+1	-4	+12	+18	1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	64	50	12	2	1	0	8	14	4	2	.240	.387	.320	.707	.080	.316	22	12	.326	107	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	104	81	14	4	0	0	15	34	6	0	.173	.343	.222	.565	.049	.286	33	14	.279	72	-3	+0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2025	19	ROK	DSL Marlins	89	70	12	3	1	2	14	27	4	1	.171	.341	.329	.669	.157	.238	30	16	.312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+3	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Abreu (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	.201/.271/.299	.098	.289	1	1	31%	8%	59	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Derek Norris 2009 · A	20	40→50	42→55	49→50	43	.194/.269/.300	.106	.295	9	6	35%	9%	58	-1.2	.209/.301/.372	.163	.281	20	6	31%	11%	91	+1.1	.254/.332/.403	.149	.311	15	5	22%	10%	106	+1.6
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→46	40→50	46→45	45	.200/.274/.295	.095	.288	7	9	31%	8%	59	-1.1	.227/.293/.378	.151	.302	17	5	29%	7%	89	+0.9	.224/.290/.376	.152	.290	17	4	28%	6%	83	+0.5
✕Agustín Ramírez 2022 · A	20	37→45	43→55	44→50	39	.188/.245/.301	.113	.275	11	4	34%	6%	47	-1.9	.223/.286/.366	.143	.284	16	11	26%	8%	82	+0.5	.230/.293/.405	.176	.264	22	16	22%	7%	92	+1.1
●Alex Liddi 2009 · A	20	42→52	40→60	49→50	38	.202/.249/.300	.098	.290	7	9	32%	5%	48	-1.9	.240/.291/.399	.159	.335	16	7	32%	6%	92	+1.2	.241/.296/.424	.182	.336	20	5	33%	6%	99	+1.7
●Chun-Hsiu Chen 2010 · A	21	43→53	41→50	48→45	40	.209/.263/.306	.097	.302	8	6	32%	7%	55	-1.4	.250/.309/.388	.138	.334	12	4	27%	7%	96	+1.5	.256/.318/.393	.137	.347	12	4	28%	8%	99	+1.3
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	42→49	38→55	49→30	44	.201/.271/.276	.075	.277	5	5	28%	7%	52	-1.6	.207/.270/.291	.084	.263	6	4	22%	7%	55	-1.4	.228/.285/.376	.148	.288	19	0	27%	7%	82	+0.3
●Dilson Herrera 2014 · A	20	43→53	45→50	49→50	40	.213/.264/.339	.126	.281	12	11	28%	6%	65	-0.7	.248/.297/.383	.135	.313	14	13	24%	6%	90	+1.0	.257/.307/.397	.140	.313	15	13	22%	6%	94	+1.2
✕Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	38→47	43→50	46→50	46	.188/.269/.299	.110	.273	10	7	33%	10%	58	-1.2	.198/.288/.331	.133	.275	13	9	30%	11%	74	-0.1	.206/.294/.357	.151	.275	17	10	30%	11%	81	+0.4
✕David Bote 2013 · A	20	43→48	38→55	50→45	43	.200/.271/.286	.086	.293	4	8	31%	8%	54	-1.4	.190/.266/.272	.082	.263	5	6	28%	8%	50	-1.8	.234/.308/.397	.164	.298	19	6	27%	8%	95	+1.0
●Bo Naylor 2021 · A	21	41→43	44→55	50	43	.203/.259/.325	.122	.273	11	7	29%	7%	59	-1.1	.199/.278/.352	.153	.276	18	12	33%	9%	75	-0.0	.216/.308/.399	.183	.269	22	12	28%	11%	97	+1.2
●Wilin Rosario 2009 · A	20	42→52	43→60	44→45	37	.209/.253/.314	.105	.295	11	5	32%	5%	53	-1.5	.225/.261/.370	.145	.298	17	4	30%	4%	72	-0.2	.265/.302/.457	.192	.301	26	4	21%	5%	107	+1.6
✕Samad Taylor 2018 · A	20	45→53	37→50	51→65	41	.213/.268/.288	.076	.300	4	10	29%	6%	53	-1.5	.183/.255/.284	.101	.259	7	22	30%	8%	47	-1.9	.236/.312/.377	.141	.324	16	46	30%	9%	94	+0.8
●Tyler Stephenson 2017 · A	20	41→51	38→50	43→30	39	.197/.249/.277	.080	.290	6	3	33%	6%	42	-2.3	.216/.283/.315	.099	.290	9	3	27%	7%	67	-0.5	.253/.327/.399	.146	.323	16	1	25%	9%	102	+1.3
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	43	39→50	51→45	39	.202/.262/.293	.090	.301	6	7	33%	6%	52	-1.6	.193/.267/.305	.112	.296	13	8	37%	7%	59	-1.1	.178/.253/.291	.113	.253	15	7	34%	7%	47	-0.8
✕Kyle Higashioka 2010 · A	20	45→43	40→60	49→40	41	.215/.267/.304	.089	.290	7	7	28%	6%	56	-1.3	.191/.240/.293	.102	.234	10	3	23%	5%	43	-2.2	.229/.276/.416	.187	.272	25	4	26%	6%	88	+0.4
●Alonzo Harris 2009 · A	20	44→50	45→55	50→60	40	.221/.276/.342	.121	.296	13	11	29%	6%	71	-0.3	.205/.243/.307	.102	.275	11	12	29%	4%	46	-2.0	.240/.296/.401	.161	.286	19	35	22%	7%	92	+0.9
●James McCann 2012 · A	22	41→51	42→50	49→45	39	.203/.260/.306	.103	.288	9	7	32%	6%	55	-1.4	.223/.261/.310	.087	.291	6	6	24%	4%	55	-1.4	.254/.315/.415	.161	.331	20	4	28%	7%	104	+1.1
✕Brendan Rodgers 2016 · A	19	43→53	40→50	46→45	39	.205/.255/.298	.093	.301	7	7	33%	6%	50	-1.8	.224/.267/.352	.128	.288	14	5	27%	4%	69	-0.4	.253/.308/.383	.131	.298	13	0	19%	6%	93	+0.8
✕Max Stassi 2012 · A	21	40→43	44→55	43→40	41	.198/.260/.309	.111	.287	12	5	34%	7%	56	-1.3	.218/.270/.362	.144	.290	17	4	30%	5%	74	-0.1	.208/.295/.359	.151	.271	20	0	30%	10%	81	+0.2
●Lane Thomas 2016 · A	20	43→51	37→55	51→55	42	.200/.259/.277	.077	.294	3	9	32%	7%	46	-2.0	.194/.260/.302	.108	.313	10	13	38%	8%	54	-1.4	.248/.312/.427	.179	.308	21	13	25%	7%	107	+2.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)