Jesus Abreu — OGILVIE

Jesus AbreuC DSL Marlins

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs ROK HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 79 proj PA

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .268 / .273

PA79

HR1

K%32

BB%8

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.6M
2037	Arb-3	$1M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.2M
Totals		$8M		$19M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	64	53	10	1	1	0	5	20	4	2	0	189	306	245	552	57	286	31	8	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	64	50	12	2	1	0	8	14	4	2	0	240	387	320	707	80	316	22	12	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	104	87	9	2	0	0	9	49	6	0	0	103	235	126	362	23	225	47	9	183	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	104	81	14	4	0	0	15	34	6	0	0	173	343	222	565	49	286	33	14	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	89	76	7	2	0	1	8	41	4	1	0	92	216	158	374	66	171	46	9	180	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	89	70	12	3	1	2	14	27	4	1	0	171	341	329	669	157	238	30	16	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	MIA	—	79	72	14	2	1	1	6	25	1	1	0	194	266	292	557	97	287	32	8	252	51	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	MIA	34%	167	149	29	5	1	2	13	52	3	2	1	195	273	282	555	87	289	31	8	265	61	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
2028	22	MLB	MIA	48%	300	269	56	10	2	5	23	91	5	3	1	208	283	316	599	108	291	30	8	273	67	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2029	23	MLB	MIA	54%	392	351	74	13	3	7	31	117	7	4	1	211	288	325	613	114	292	30	8	279	72	-12	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.6
2030	24	MLB	MIA	55%	455	408	88	16	3	9	36	134	8	5	2	216	292	336	628	120	293	29	8	284	75	-13	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.9
2031	25	MLB	MIA	56%	491	440	94	17	3	10	39	145	9	6	2	214	291	334	625	120	293	30	8	286	77	-13	+0	+0	+9	+14	1.0
2032	26	MLB	MIA	56%	512	457	99	18	3	11	41	151	9	6	2	217	294	341	635	125	293	29	8	287	78	-13	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2033	27	MLB	MIA	55%	520	464	100	18	3	11	42	153	9	6	2	216	293	338	632	123	293	29	8	287	78	-13	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2034	28	MLB	MIA	55%	520	463	100	18	3	11	43	154	9	6	2	216	295	339	634	123	292	30	8	286	77	-13	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.0
2035	29	MLB	MIA	53%	515	459	98	17	3	11	42	154	9	5	2	214	292	336	628	122	291	30	8	284	76	-14	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.9
2036	30	MLB	MIA	53%	507	451	95	17	3	10	42	153	9	5	1	211	291	328	619	118	290	30	8	281	73	-15	+1	-2	+9	+14	0.7
2037	31	MLB	MIA	52%	479	429	88	15	3	9	39	146	8	4	1	205	284	317	601	112	287	30	8	277	70	-16	+0	-3	+9	+14	0.4
2038	32	MLB	MIA	56%	447	399	81	14	2	8	37	138	8	3	1	203	284	308	592	105	284	31	8	272	66	-17	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.0
2039	33	MLB	MIA	59%	407	364	72	12	2	7	33	127	7	2	1	198	277	299	577	102	280	31	8	265	61	-18	+0	-4	+7	+12	-0.3
2027	21	MLB	MIA	34%	57	52	10	2	0	1	4	18	1	1	0	192	263	288	552	96	284	32	7	247	48	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	MIA	48%	145	130	27	5	1	2	11	44	3	2	1	208	285	308	592	100	286	30	8	256	54	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2029	23	MLB	MIA	54%	213	190	39	7	1	4	17	63	4	2	1	205	284	316	600	111	287	30	8	262	59	-10	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2030	24	MLB	MIA	55%	252	226	48	8	2	5	20	74	4	3	1	212	288	332	620	119	288	29	8	267	62	-11	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2031	25	MLB	MIA	56%	275	246	53	9	2	6	22	81	5	3	1	215	293	341	635	126	288	29	8	268	64	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2032	26	MLB	MIA	56%	288	258	55	10	2	6	23	85	5	3	1	213	290	337	627	124	288	30	8	270	65	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2033	27	MLB	MIA	55%	288	258	55	10	2	6	23	85	5	3	1	213	290	337	627	124	288	30	8	270	65	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2034	28	MLB	MIA	55%	285	255	54	9	2	6	23	84	5	3	1	212	290	333	623	122	287	29	8	269	64	-12	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.1
2035	29	MLB	MIA	53%	275	245	52	9	2	6	23	82	5	3	1	212	293	339	632	127	286	30	8	267	63	-12	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.1
2036	30	MLB	MIA	53%	267	238	50	9	2	5	22	80	5	2	1	210	291	328	618	118	285	30	8	264	61	-12	+0	-1	+5	+8	-0.1
2037	31	MLB	MIA	52%	250	223	45	8	1	5	21	76	4	2	1	202	282	314	596	112	282	30	8	261	58	-12	+0	-1	+4	+7	-0.2
2038	32	MLB	MIA	56%	251	224	45	8	1	5	21	77	4	2	1	201	281	312	594	112	279	31	8	255	54	-13	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.4
2039	33	MLB	MIA	59%	240	214	42	7	1	4	20	75	4	1	0	196	277	294	572	98	275	31	8	249	49	-14	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3086	2759	575	101	19	61	250	924	54	30	11	208	287	325	612	117	288	30	8	264	60	-140	+2	-8	+55	+87	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	121	21	4	13	53	195	11	6	2	208	287	325	612	117	287	30	8	264	60	-29	+0	-2	+12	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	6048	5391	1114	197	36	113	489	1850	115	61	19	207	287	319	606	113	289	31	8	276	70	-207	+5	-15	+108	+171	6.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	120	21	4	12	53	199	12	7	2	207	287	320	607	112	290	31	8	276	70	-22	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	64	50	12	2	1	0	8	14	4	2	240	387	320	707	80	316	22	12	326	107	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	104	81	14	4	0	0	15	34	6	0	173	343	222	565	49	286	33	14	279	72	-3	+0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2025	19	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	89	70	12	3	1	2	14	27	4	1	171	341	329	669	157	238	30	16	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+3	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,165	62	31	212	287	329	+57	+32	4.5	4.1
	/162	664	13	6	212	287	329	+11.9	+6.7	0.9	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Abreu (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	193/268/273	80	287	1	1	32%	8%	51	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	40→55	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	59	-1.1	228/295/379	151	303	17	5	29%	7%	89	+1.0	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Ethan Workinger 2022 · A	20	37→44	40→50	50→45	37	182/242/275	93	284	6	6	36%	6%	39	-2.5	204/253/323	119	282	11	5	30%	6%	56	-1.3	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Franklin Tineo 2015 · A	20	38	35→45	42→50	41	179/245/239	60	279	2	8	34%	7%	31	-3.0	184/260/268	84	250	6	9	27%	8%	46	-2.0	174/259/268	94	224	8	11	24%	9%	43	-0.7
✕Rodolfo Durán 2018 · A	20	43	41→55	46→40	39	210/252/306	96	282	8	6	28%	5%	50	-1.7	208/243/347	139	281	18	3	32%	4%	59	-1.1	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→42	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	214/277/356	142	321	16	4	36%	7%	76	+0.0	203/271/349	146	304	18	4	37%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Rey Duran 2009 · A	20	36	41→50	49→40	41	183/243/277	94	256	9	6	31%	6%	40	-2.4	213/267/338	125	268	14	5	25%	6%	66	-0.6	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	34	-2.8	189/233/266	77	239	5	3	22%	4%	32	-3.0	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	40	37→55	50→45	41	186/263/256	70	295	4	13	35%	8%	43	-2.2	196/264/293	97	301	10	5	36%	6%	54	-1.4	196/264/343	147	286	18	5	37%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Mike Ohlman 2011 · A	20	39→49	38→45	50→40	38	185/245/263	78	303	5	5	38%	7%	37	-2.6	216/279/309	93	310	6	3	30%	7%	63	-0.8	229/295/332	103	322	7	2	29%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→46	35→40	48→60	44	183/264/241	59	277	2	9	32%	8%	40	-2.4	186/288/267	81	287	6	15	33%	11%	59	-1.1	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Brandon Barnes 2006 · A	20	37→47	38→55	47→50	37	184/237/264	80	266	6	6	32%	5%	33	-2.9	182/229/258	76	281	5	7	35%	5%	28	-3.2	236/281/354	118	320	11	16	29%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Rodolfo Castro 2019 · A	20	38→40	43→55	47→50	36	194/233/304	111	269	10	5	32%	4%	42	-2.3	197/238/344	147	275	17	6	34%	5%	56	-1.3	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Daurys Mercedes 2010 · A	20	45	37→45	49→45	42	208/268/290	82	302	3	7	30%	7%	53	-1.5	186/256/250	64	315	2	7	38%	8%	39	-2.5	145/223/189	44	275	2	6	44%	8%	7	-1.4
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Yu Chang 2016 · A	20	41→46	42→50	45	38	202/252/305	103	275	9	6	29%	5%	50	-1.7	201/256/343	142	286	15	8	34%	6%	63	-0.9	215/275/364	149	282	17	4	29%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	44	-2.1	197/271/306	109	274	10	3	30%	9%	59	-1.1	224/278/372	148	290	19	6	29%	6%	77	+0.1