Francisco Caldera

C DSL Astros Blue

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 193 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1502ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	17	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	98	.198/.330/.333	2	1	17	—	.129/.237/.212
2024	18	ROKDSL Astros Or…	151	.228/.342/.307	2	9	22	—	.143/.235/.180
2025	19	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	35	.222/.382/.556	2	0	52	—	.138/.265/.345
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBHOU	145	.210/.278/.292	1	2	62	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBHOU	24	.216/.284/.308	0	0	67	0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBHOU	76	.219/.288/.319	1	1	71	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .275 / .289

PA25

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	98	81	16	3	1	2	15	22	1	1	0	198	330	333	663	136	241	22	15	305	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	151	127	29	4	0	2	16	26	6	9	1	228	342	307	649	79	267	17	11	303	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	35	27	6	1	1	2	7	11	0	0	1	222	382	556	938	333	267	31	20	393	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	98	85	11	2	1	1	11	27	1	1	0	129	237	212	449	82	149	28	11	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	151	133	19	2	0	1	10	33	6	9	1	143	235	180	415	38	179	22	7	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	35	29	4	1	1	1	5	14	0	0	1	138	265	345	610	207	162	40	14	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	98	85	11	2	1	1	11	27	1	1	0	129	237	212	449	82	172	28	11	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	98	81	16	3	1	2	15	22	1	1	0	198	330	333	663	136	241	22	15	305	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	151	133	19	2	0	1	10	33	6	9	1	143	235	180	415	38	178	22	7	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	—	151	127	29	4	0	2	16	26	6	9	1	228	342	307	649	79	267	17	11	303	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	35	29	4	1	1	1	5	14	0	0	1	138	265	345	610	207	200	40	14	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	35	27	6	1	1	2	7	11	0	0	1	222	382	556	938	333	267	31	20	393	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	98	86	11	2	1	1	11	27	1	1	0	128	237	209	446	81	149	28	11	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	151	134	19	2	0	1	10	33	6	9	1	142	235	179	414	37	179	22	7	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	35	30	4	1	1	1	5	14	0	0	1	133	265	333	598	200	162	40	14	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	151	134	19	2	0	1	10	33	6	9	1	142	235	179	414	37	179	22	7	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	35	30	4	1	1	1	5	14	0	0	1	133	265	333	598	200	162	40	14	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	145	132	27	4	1	1	10	40	2	2	1	210	278	292	570	82	286	28	7	260	62	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	70	64	14	2	1	1	5	19	1	1	0	213	282	305	587	91	287	27	7	267	67	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	HOU	50%	153	139	30	5	1	2	11	41	2	3	1	217	286	316	601	99	288	27	7	273	71	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	235	213	47	7	2	4	17	62	3	4	1	220	289	325	614	105	289	26	7	278	74	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	HOU	60%	305	275	61	10	2	5	23	80	4	5	1	222	291	333	624	111	290	26	8	282	77	-8	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	HOU	62%	352	317	70	11	2	7	27	92	5	6	1	224	293	339	631	115	290	26	8	285	79	-9	+1	+0	+6	+8	0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	HOU	63%	375	339	76	12	3	7	28	98	5	6	1	222	292	336	628	113	289	26	7	283	78	-10	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	HOU	65%	383	346	77	12	3	7	29	101	5	4	1	221	290	331	621	111	288	26	8	281	76	-11	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	HOU	65%	381	344	75	12	2	7	29	102	5	3	1	218	287	325	612	107	286	27	8	277	74	-12	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	HOU	65%	374	338	73	12	2	6	28	101	5	2	1	215	283	317	600	102	284	27	7	272	70	-13	+0	-2	+7	+8	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	216	284	308	592	92	291	29	8	270	67	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	HOU	50%	76	69	15	2	1	1	6	20	1	1	0	219	288	319	607	100	292	26	8	275	71	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	133	120	26	4	1	2	10	35	2	2	0	222	291	328	619	106	293	26	8	280	74	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	HOU	60%	184	166	37	6	1	3	14	48	2	3	1	224	293	336	629	111	294	26	8	284	77	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	HOU	62%	220	198	46	8	2	4	17	57	3	3	1	226	295	342	637	116	294	26	8	287	79	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	HOU	63%	238	215	48	8	2	4	18	62	3	4	1	225	294	339	633	114	293	26	8	286	78	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	HOU	65%	249	225	50	8	2	4	19	66	3	3	1	223	292	334	626	111	292	27	8	283	76	-7	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	HOU	65%	248	224	49	8	2	4	19	66	3	2	1	220	289	328	617	107	290	27	8	279	74	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	HOU	65%	243	220	49	8	2	4	18	66	3	1	0	217	285	320	605	103	288	27	7	274	70	-9	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1615	1459	324	53	13	26	123	427	20	19	5	222	292	330	621	108	294	26	8	281	70	-48	+2	-3	+29	+35	1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	129	21	5	10	50	172	8	8	2	220	290	324	614	104	292	26	8	281	70	-19	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2937	2645	562	89	20	49	225	777	42	44	10	212	285	317	602	104	279	26	8	272	70	-80	+4	-4	+47	+57	2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	124	20	4	11	50	172	9	10	2	212	284	316	600	104	278	26	8	272	70	-19	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 35 PAwOBA .394 → .245 (−149)K% 31.4% → 39.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.43%	÷0.976	×1.220	—	—	39.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×0.995	13.58%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.996	×0.680	—	×0.995	8.49%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷0.997	×0.600	—	×0.995	3.74%
Triples /BIP	6.25%	÷0.959	×0.600	—	×0.995	3.89%
Home runs /BIP	12.50%	÷0.938	×0.470	—	×0.995	6.23%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 99, 2B 99, 3B 92, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .394 → .245; ISO .333 → .185; BABIP .267 → .162. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Astros Orange · 151 PAwOBA .297 → .201 (−96)K% 17.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.22%	÷0.966	×1.220	—	—	21.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.93%	÷1.011	×0.700	—	×1.008	6.93%
HBP% /PA	3.97%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.80%
Singles /BIP	22.77%	÷0.946	×0.680	×0.950	×1.008	15.67%
Doubles /BIP	3.96%	÷0.955	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	2.38%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.985	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.98%	÷0.900	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.04%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 89, 2B 91, 3B 97, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .297 → .201; ISO .079 → .045; BABIP .267 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 98 PAwOBA .301 → .194 (−106)K% 22.4% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.45%	÷1.005	×1.220	—	—	27.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.31%	÷0.992	×0.700	—	×1.022	11.04%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.73%
Singles /BIP	16.95%	÷1.034	×0.680	×0.970	×1.022	11.06%
Doubles /BIP	5.08%	÷1.077	×0.600	×0.970	×1.022	2.81%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷1.030	×0.600	×0.970	×1.022	0.98%
Home runs /BIP	3.39%	÷0.950	×0.470	—	×1.022	1.72%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 115, 3B 106, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .301 → .194; ISO .136 → .073; BABIP .241 → .149. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
#3Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	/162	664	7	1	231*	283*	340*	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#4Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
#4Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	/162	664	15	4	228*	295*	352*	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.5	1,640	29	20	221	286	329	+29	+24	2.7	2.6
	/162	664	12	8	221	286	329	+11.9	+9.7	1.1	pk7: 3
#5Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
	/162	664	11	1	226*	277*	345*	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#6Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
	/162	664	13	1	218*	277*	341*	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2

Francisco Caldera

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps