Nelson Marin

C DSL Tigers 2

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1873ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	17	ROKDSL Tigers 1	99	.124/.212/.169	1	0	-39	—	.065/.131/.076
2024	18	ROKDSL Tigers 2	89	.225/.375/.296	1	0	30	—	.135/.273/.149
2025	19	ROKDSL Tigers 2	150	.240/.383/.339	2	2	32	—	.148/.268/.203
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBDET	260	.194/.275/.265	2	3	56	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBDET	25	.195/.277/.272	0	0	61	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBDET	78	.199/.280/.283	1	1	65	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Chase%81

BB%67

K%61

wOBA59

wRC+58

ISO51

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj PA

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .273 / .262

PA45

HR0

K%28

BB%8

ISO71

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	89	11	1	0	1	10	39	0	0	0	124	212	169	381	45	204	39	10	187	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	71	16	2	0	1	12	24	5	0	0	225	375	296	671	70	319	27	13	320	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	121	29	6	0	2	24	29	4	2	1	240	383	339	721	99	297	19	16	337	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	92	6	1	0	0	7	48	0	0	0	65	131	76	207	11	128	48	7	110	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	74	10	1	0	0	9	30	5	0	0	135	273	149	421	14	210	34	10	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	128	19	4	0	1	17	36	4	2	1	148	268	203	472	55	184	24	11	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	92	6	1	0	0	7	48	0	0	0	65	131	76	207	11	136	48	7	110	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	89	11	1	0	1	10	39	0	0	0	124	212	169	381	45	204	39	10	187	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	74	10	1	0	0	9	30	5	0	0	135	273	149	421	14	222	34	10	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	71	16	2	0	1	12	24	5	0	0	225	375	296	671	70	319	27	13	320	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	128	19	4	0	1	17	36	4	2	1	148	268	203	472	55	196	24	11	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	121	29	6	0	2	24	29	4	2	1	240	383	339	721	99	297	19	16	337	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	92	6	1	0	0	7	48	0	0	0	65	131	76	207	11	128	48	7	110	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	75	10	1	0	0	9	30	5	0	0	133	273	147	419	13	210	34	10	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	128	19	4	0	1	17	36	4	2	1	148	268	203	472	55	184	24	11	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	75	10	1	0	0	9	30	5	0	0	133	273	147	419	13	210	34	10	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	128	19	4	0	1	17	36	4	2	1	148	268	203	472	55	184	24	11	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	DET	0%	260	232	44	7	1	2	22	74	4	3	1	194	275	265	540	71	271	28	8	251	56	-14	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	DET	34%	73	66	13	2	0	1	6	20	1	1	0	199	280	278	558	79	274	27	8	258	61	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	DET	50%	157	141	29	5	1	2	13	43	2	2	1	203	283	289	573	87	275	27	8	264	65	-7	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	DET	57%	240	213	43	7	1	3	21	65	4	3	1	206	286	299	585	93	277	27	9	269	68	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	DET	60%	311	277	59	10	2	5	27	84	4	4	2	209	289	307	595	98	278	27	9	272	70	-11	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	DET	62%	359	320	68	12	2	6	31	96	5	5	2	211	290	313	603	102	278	27	9	275	72	-12	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	DET	63%	381	340	71	12	2	6	33	102	5	5	2	209	289	310	599	100	278	27	9	274	71	-13	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	DET	65%	391	349	72	12	2	6	34	106	5	4	2	208	287	305	592	98	277	27	9	271	70	-14	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	DET	65%	388	347	72	12	2	6	33	106	5	4	2	205	284	299	583	94	275	27	9	267	67	-15	+0	-1	+7	+8	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	DET	34%	25	23	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	195	277	272	549	77	269	28	8	254	61	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	DET	50%	78	70	13	2	0	1	7	21	1	1	0	199	280	283	564	84	271	27	9	260	65	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	DET	57%	136	121	25	4	1	2	12	37	2	2	1	203	283	293	576	90	273	27	9	265	68	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	DET	60%	188	167	35	6	1	3	16	51	3	2	1	205	286	300	586	95	274	27	9	268	70	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	DET	62%	224	200	41	7	1	3	19	60	3	3	1	207	287	306	593	99	274	27	8	271	72	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	DET	63%	242	216	45	8	1	4	21	65	3	3	1	206	286	303	589	97	274	27	9	270	71	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	DET	65%	254	227	46	8	1	4	22	69	3	3	1	204	284	299	583	94	273	27	9	267	70	-9	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	DET	65%	252	225	45	8	1	3	22	69	3	3	2	202	281	292	574	91	271	27	9	263	67	-10	-0	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1399	1249	254	44	6	20	121	379	18	17	7	203	283	296	579	93	273	27	9	267	62	-51	+1	-1	+25	+30	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	117	20	3	9	56	176	8	8	3	202	281	293	574	91	271	27	9	267	62	-24	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	2683	2387	469	79	12	36	235	749	41	31	13	196	280	285	565	88	268	28	9	259	62	-87	+1	-2	+42	+51	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	114	19	3	9	57	181	10	8	3	197	280	287	567	90	269	28	9	259	62	-24	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Tigers 2 · 150 PAwOBA .332 → .216 (−116)K% 19.3% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.33%	÷0.991	×1.220	—	—	23.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.00%	÷0.974	×0.700	—	×0.985	11.33%
HBP% /PA	2.67%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	1.84%
Singles /BIP	22.83%	÷0.994	×0.680	×0.950	×0.985	14.61%
Doubles /BIP	6.52%	÷0.962	×0.600	×0.950	×0.985	3.81%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.950	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.17%	÷1.048	×0.470	—	×0.985	0.96%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .332 → .216; ISO .099 → .052; BABIP .297 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Tigers 2 · 89 PAwOBA .316 → .212 (−104)K% 27.0% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.97%	÷0.986	×1.220	—	—	33.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.48%	÷0.973	×0.700	—	×0.995	9.65%
HBP% /PA	5.62%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	3.91%
Singles /BIP	27.66%	÷0.995	×0.680	×0.990	×0.995	18.63%
Doubles /BIP	4.26%	÷0.951	×0.600	×0.990	×0.995	2.64%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.135	×0.600	×0.990	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.13%	÷0.995	×0.470	—	×0.995	1.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 127, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .316 → .212; ISO .070 → .038; BABIP .319 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Tigers 1 · 99 PAwOBA .183 → .110 (−72)K% 39.4% → 48.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	39.39%	÷0.995	×1.220	—	—	48.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.10%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.06%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.00%	÷1.058	×0.680	×0.973	×1.008	11.35%
Doubles /BIP	2.00%	÷0.901	×0.600	×0.973	×1.008	1.31%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.973	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.00%	÷0.862	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.10%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 112, 2B 80, 3B 80, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .183 → .110; ISO .045 → .023; BABIP .204 → .128. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Marc Hill'73-'86 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,047 PA	3.1	2,047	34	1	218*	292*	337*	+35	-0	2.6	3.3
#3Marc Hill'73-'86 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,047 PA	/162	664	11	0	218*	292*	337*	+11.4	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.2	1,444	21	17	208	285	304	+26	+24	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	10	8	208	285	304	+11.9	+11.0	0.7	pk7: 1
#4Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
	/162	664	13	1	218*	277*	341*	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#5Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
#5Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	/162	664	3	1	214*	271*	292*	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#6Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
	/162	664	8	2	211*	275*	330*	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1

Nelson Marin

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps