Nelson Marin — OGILVIE

Nelson MarinC DSL Tigers 2

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 125 proj PA

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .265 / .266

PA125

HR1

K%30

BB%8

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	93	7	1	0	1	6	57	0	0	0	75	131	118	250	43	171	58	6	108	-59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	89	11	1	0	1	10	39	0	0	0	124	212	169	381	45	204	39	10	187	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	75	12	1	0	1	8	36	5	0	0	160	284	213	497	53	282	40	9	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	71	16	2	0	1	12	24	5	0	0	225	375	296	671	70	319	27	13	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	129	21	4	0	1	16	43	4	2	1	163	275	217	492	54	233	29	11	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	121	29	6	0	2	24	29	4	2	1	240	383	339	721	99	297	19	16	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	DET	—	125	112	22	4	1	1	10	37	2	2	1	196	274	277	551	80	272	30	8	247	48	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	DET	34%	208	186	38	7	1	3	17	60	3	3	1	204	282	301	583	97	275	29	8	260	57	-10	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	DET	48%	332	297	61	11	2	5	28	94	4	4	1	205	283	306	589	101	278	28	8	268	64	-14	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.2
2029	23	MLB	DET	54%	416	373	77	14	2	7	35	116	5	5	2	206	283	311	594	105	279	28	8	274	68	-15	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.4
2030	24	MLB	DET	55%	472	423	89	16	2	9	40	131	6	6	2	210	288	322	609	111	281	28	8	277	70	-16	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.6
2031	25	MLB	DET	56%	504	449	95	17	3	9	43	139	7	7	2	212	291	323	614	111	281	28	9	278	71	-17	+1	+0	+9	+14	0.7
2032	26	MLB	DET	56%	520	464	99	18	3	10	44	144	7	7	2	213	291	330	621	116	280	28	8	278	71	-17	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.8
2033	27	MLB	DET	60%	520	463	98	17	3	10	45	144	7	7	2	212	291	326	617	114	280	28	9	279	71	-17	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.8
2027	21	MLB	DET	34%	71	64	12	2	0	1	6	21	1	1	0	188	268	266	533	78	271	30	8	247	47	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	DET	48%	161	145	29	5	1	2	13	46	2	2	1	200	275	290	565	90	273	29	8	255	53	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
2029	23	MLB	DET	54%	226	202	41	7	1	4	19	63	3	3	1	203	281	307	588	104	275	28	8	260	57	-11	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2030	24	MLB	DET	55%	262	235	49	9	1	5	22	73	3	3	1	209	285	319	604	111	276	28	8	263	60	-12	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.0
2031	25	MLB	DET	56%	282	252	53	9	2	5	24	78	4	4	1	210	289	321	611	111	276	28	9	264	60	-13	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2032	26	MLB	DET	56%	292	261	55	10	2	5	25	81	4	4	1	211	290	322	611	111	276	28	9	265	61	-13	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2033	27	MLB	DET	60%	310	276	58	10	2	6	27	86	4	4	1	210	290	326	616	116	276	28	9	265	61	-14	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1604	1435	297	52	9	28	136	448	21	21	6	207	285	314	599	107	278	28	8	262	59	-75	+2	+0	+29	+45	0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	120	21	4	11	55	182	9	9	2	206	285	313	598	107	278	28	8	262	59	-30	+1	+0	+12	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	3435	3064	619	110	17	57	292	1001	50	43	14	202	282	305	587	103	278	29	9	266	62	-148	+3	+0	+61	+97	1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	117	21	3	11	55	189	9	8	3	202	281	305	586	103	276	29	8	266	62	-28	+0	+0	+12	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	89	11	1	1	10	39	0	0	0	124	212	169	381	45	204	39	10	187	1	-11	+0	—	—	+3	-0.8
2024	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	71	16	2	1	12	24	5	0	0	225	375	296	671	70	319	27	13	320	103	+0	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2025	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	121	29	6	2	24	29	4	2	1	240	383	339	721	99	297	19	16	337	116	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,729	30	23	209	284	316	+31	+20	1.8	1.9
	/162	664	11	9	209	284	316	+11.9	+7.7	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nelson Marin (OGILVIE)	20	35	25	40	60	189/265/266	76	272	1	2	30%	8%	48	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Victor Moscote 2014 · A	20	40	37→30	40→45	37	194/243/263	69	285	4	5	32%	5%	36	-2.7	209/262/265	56	278	2	5	24%	6%	44	-2.1	209/266/252	43	268	2	3	21%	6%	40	-0.8
✕Franklin Tineo 2015 · A	20	38	35→45	42→50	41	179/245/239	60	279	2	8	34%	7%	31	-3.0	184/260/268	84	250	6	9	27%	8%	46	-2.0	174/259/268	94	224	8	11	24%	9%	43	-0.7
✕Luis Reynoso 2015 · A	20	41	37→30	43→50	39	194/249/260	66	291	4	7	33%	6%	37	-2.6	191/245/244	53	335	3	5	41%	6%	32	-3.0	171/227/194	23	314	1	2	43%	6%	9	-1.2
✕Juan Zabala 2019 · A	20	39	34→40	43→50	49	181/263/236	55	238	1	7	23%	8%	39	-2.5	188/251/276	88	288	7	6	35%	6%	43	-2.2	203/266/291	88	284	10	16	30%	7%	50	-0.7
✕Anneury Peguero 2007 · A	20	43	35→30	44→50	48	201/266/259	58	253	2	7	20%	7%	45	-2.1	211/289/268	57	271	3	12	21%	9%	57	-1.2	205/293/243	38	260	2	16	20%	10%	50	-0.6
✕Luis Palacios 2009 · A	20	43	38→40	45→50	44	205/265/285	81	267	6	7	25%	6%	51	-1.7	184/229/259	75	281	5	5	35%	5%	28	-3.2	142/174/195	54	228	4	4	38%	3%	-14	-1.2
✕Marco Guzman 2015 · A	20	41	39→45	44→50	48	196/264/281	85	246	6	7	22%	8%	50	-1.7	217/263/307	90	264	5	7	19%	6%	55	-1.4	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→46	35→40	48→60	44	183/264/241	59	277	2	9	32%	8%	40	-2.4	186/288/267	81	287	6	15	33%	11%	59	-1.1	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Yeldrys Molina 2009 · A	20	43	38→40	48→50	44	206/265/287	82	281	4	9	27%	7%	51	-1.7	194/252/272	78	285	4	8	31%	7%	42	-2.3	139/198/200	60	203	0	9	29%	6%	-1	-1.2
✕Luis Rubio 2022 · A	20	39	35→30	44→45	41	180/250/235	55	298	2	7	38%	8%	32	-3.0	183/253/239	56	283	2	8	33%	8%	34	-2.8	157/235/187	30	232	0	8	29%	8%	11	-1.0
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	40	-2.4	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	46	-2.0	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	42	-0.8
✕Jose Bellorin 2011 · A	20	42	39→40	47→50	42	203/257/285	81	265	6	10	25%	6%	47	-1.9	223/280/308	85	271	6	9	19%	6%	63	-0.8	239/295/316	78	276	6	10	15%	6%	69	-0.2
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2019 · A	20	35	38→45	47→40	46	171/243/241	71	215	6	3	23%	7%	32	-3.0	206/263/288	82	261	6	4	22%	6%	51	-1.7	226/269/325	99	274	9	1	21%	4%	62	-0.3
✕Deivi Mejia 2011 · A	21	40	39→40	43→30	44	193/264/278	85	266	7	5	29%	8%	50	-1.8	212/259/304	92	276	7	4	25%	4%	53	-1.5	224/268/311	87	267	6	1	18%	3%	59	-0.4
✕Joshual Ramirez 2016 · A	20	44	36→30	44→50	41	209/258/275	66	277	4	9	25%	5%	45	-2.1	196/245/277	81	273	4	8	28%	5%	40	-2.4	154/194/243	89	210	3	6	27%	4%	7	-1.1
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	43	-2.2	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	40	-2.4	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	10	-1.5
✕Miguel Moreno 2009 · A	19	38	39→40	42→40	48	184/276/263	79	271	7	5	32%	10%	52	-1.6	200/281/271	71	286	5	5	29%	9%	56	-1.3	176/264/209	33	250	3	3	28%	10%	29	-0.9
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Luis Cruz 2012 · A	19	39	35→40	43→45	42	186/235/238	52	254	2	5	27%	6%	25	-3.5	220/272/314	94	275	9	5	22%	5%	61	-1.0	227/272/301	75	302	6	3	26%	4%	56	-0.5
✕Jose Sanabria 2023 · A	20	44	36→30	45→50	44	205/275/274	69	295	4	9	30%	8%	53	-1.5	193/265/247	54	302	2	10	33%	8%	42	-2.3	174/248/215	41	277	1	11	34%	8%	23	-1.6