Nelson Marin — OGILVIE

Nelson MarinC DSL Tigers 2

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 125 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .266 / .266

PA11

HR0

K%30

BB%8

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	89	11	1	0	1	10	39	0	0	0	124	212	169	381	45	204	39	10	187	13	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2024	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	71	16	2	0	1	12	24	5	0	0	225	375	296	671	70	319	27	13	320	103	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	121	29	6	0	2	24	29	4	2	1	240	383	339	721	99	297	19	16	337	114	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	93	7	1	0	1	6	56	0	0	0	75	131	118	250	43	154	57	6	107	-41	-17	+0	—	—	+2	-1.5
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	75	12	1	0	1	8	35	5	0	0	160	284	213	497	53	256	39	9	221	36	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	130	21	4	0	1	15	42	4	2	1	162	268	215	484	54	226	28	10	234	45	-10	+0	—	—	+3	-0.7
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	93	7	1	0	1	6	56	0	0	0	75	131	118	250	43	167	57	6	107	-41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	89	11	1	0	1	10	39	0	0	0	124	212	169	381	45	204	39	10	187	-41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	75	12	1	0	1	8	35	5	0	0	160	284	213	497	53	275	39	9	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	71	16	2	0	1	12	24	5	0	0	225	375	296	671	70	319	27	13	320	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	130	21	4	0	1	15	42	4	2	1	162	268	215	484	54	227	28	10	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	121	29	6	0	2	24	29	4	2	1	240	383	339	721	99	297	19	16	337	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	93	7	1	0	1	6	56	0	0	0	75	131	118	250	43	154	57	6	107	-41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	76	12	1	0	1	8	35	5	0	0	158	284	211	495	53	256	39	9	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	130	21	4	0	1	15	42	4	2	1	162	268	215	484	54	226	28	10	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	99	93	7	1	0	1	6	56	0	0	0	75	131	118	250	43	154	57	6	107	-41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	89	76	12	1	0	1	8	35	5	0	0	158	284	211	495	53	256	39	9	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	—	150	130	21	4	0	1	15	42	4	2	1	162	268	215	484	54	226	28	10	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	DET	0%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		272	27	9	248	54	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	DET	34%	208	186	38	7	1	3	17	60	3	3	1	204	282	301	583	97	275	29	8	260	62	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	DET	48%	332	297	61	11	2	5	28	93	4	4	1	205	283	306	589	101	277	28	8	269	68	-13	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	DET	54%	416	373	78	14	2	7	35	115	5	5	2	209	286	314	599	105	279	28	8	274	72	-14	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	DET	55%	472	423	89	16	2	9	40	130	6	6	2	210	288	322	609	111	280	28	8	277	74	-15	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	DET	56%	504	449	96	17	3	9	43	138	7	7	2	214	293	325	618	111	280	27	9	278	75	-15	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	DET	56%	520	464	99	17	3	10	44	142	7	7	2	213	291	328	619	114	280	27	8	279	75	-16	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	DET	60%	520	463	98	17	3	10	45	143	7	7	2	212	291	326	617	114	280	28	9	279	75	-15	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	DET	62%	520	463	98	17	3	10	45	144	7	7	2	212	291	326	617	114	279	28	9	278	74	-16	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	DET	63%	520	463	96	17	2	9	45	145	7	7	2	207	287	311	598	104	278	28	9	276	73	-17	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	DET	63%	513	456	95	17	2	9	45	144	7	6	2	208	289	314	603	105	277	28	9	273	71	-18	+0	-2	+9	+11	0.1
2037	31	MLB MLE	DET	65%	485	434	87	15	2	8	42	138	6	6	2	200	280	300	580	99	275	28	9	269	68	-18	+0	-3	+9	+11	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	DET	34%	71	64	12	2	0	1	6	20	1	1	0	188	268	266	533	78	271	28	8	247	62	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	DET	48%	161	145	29	5	1	2	13	45	2	2	1	200	275	290	565	90	273	28	8	255	68	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	DET	54%	226	202	41	7	1	4	19	63	3	3	1	203	281	307	588	104	274	28	8	260	72	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	DET	55%	262	235	49	9	1	5	22	72	3	3	1	209	285	319	604	111	276	27	8	264	74	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	DET	56%	282	252	53	9	2	5	24	77	4	4	1	210	289	321	611	111	276	27	9	265	75	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	DET	56%	292	261	55	10	2	5	25	80	4	4	1	211	290	322	611	111	276	27	9	265	75	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	DET	60%	310	276	58	10	2	6	27	85	4	4	1	210	290	326	616	116	275	27	9	265	75	-9	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	DET	62%	321	286	60	10	2	6	28	89	4	4	1	210	289	322	611	112	275	28	9	264	74	-10	+0	-0	+6	+7	0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	DET	63%	326	291	60	10	2	6	28	91	4	4	1	206	285	316	601	110	274	28	9	262	73	-10	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	DET	63%	325	290	59	10	2	5	28	91	4	4	1	203	283	303	586	100	273	28	9	260	71	-11	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	DET	65%	315	281	56	10	1	5	27	89	4	4	1	199	279	295	574	96	270	28	9	256	68	-12	+0	-2	+6	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2891	2583	532	92	16	50	247	802	37	37	10	206	285	312	597	106	276	28	9	261	69	-95	+3	-4	+52	+63	1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	120	21	4	11	56	180	8	8	2	207	285	313	599	107	277	28	9	261	69	-21	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5359	4779	976	171	25	92	459	1528	75	67	21	204	284	308	592	104	277	29	9	270	69	-166	+5	-7	+90	+109	3.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	118	21	3	11	56	185	9	8	3	203	284	307	591	103	276	28	9	270	69	-21	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.5	3,017	53	38	209	284	316	+54	+28	3.8	3.5
/162	664	12	8	+11.9	+6.2	0.8	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nelson Marin (OGILVIE)	20	35	25	40	60	190/266/266	76	272	1	2	30%	8%	54	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Victor Moscote 2014 · A	20	40	37→30	40→45	37	194/243/263	69	285	4	5	32%	5%	43	-2.8	209/262/265	56	278	2	5	24%	6%	51	-2.3	209/266/252	43	268	2	3	21%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Franklin Tineo 2015 · A	20	38	35→45	42→50	41	179/245/239	60	279	2	8	34%	7%	39	-3.1	184/260/268	84	250	6	9	27%	8%	52	-2.2	174/259/268	94	224	8	11	24%	9%	50	-0.8
✕Luis Reynoso 2015 · A	20	41	37→30	43→50	39	194/249/260	66	291	4	7	33%	6%	45	-2.7	193/248/247	54	331	3	5	40%	6%	41	-3.0	176/233/201	25	312	1	2	41%	6%	23	-1.1
✕Anneury Peguero 2007 · A	20	43	35→30	44→50	48	201/266/259	58	253	2	7	20%	7%	51	-2.2	211/289/268	57	271	3	12	21%	9%	62	-1.4	205/293/243	38	260	2	16	20%	10%	55	-0.6
✕Juan Zabala 2019 · A	20	39	34→40	43→50	49	181/263/236	55	238	1	7	23%	8%	46	-2.6	188/252/275	87	288	7	6	35%	6%	50	-2.3	206/268/289	83	286	8	16	29%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Onil Perez 2023 · A	20	44	37→30	46→55	48	207/272/285	78	269	3	7	23%	8%	59	-1.6	214/275/285	71	269	3	17	20%	7%	60	-1.6	211/278/275	64	260	3	21	19%	7%	57	-0.9
✕Luis Palacios 2009 · A	20	43	38→40	45→50	44	205/265/285	81	267	6	7	25%	6%	57	-1.8	186/229/261	75	283	5	5	34%	4%	37	-3.3	145/177/201	55	232	4	4	38%	3%	1	-1.2
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→40	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	53	-2.1	191/260/268	77	304	6	15	36%	7%	51	-2.2	188/266/266	78	286	5	32	33%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Marco Guzman 2015 · A	20	41	39→45	44→50	48	196/264/281	85	246	6	7	22%	8%	56	-1.9	216/262/303	87	264	5	7	19%	6%	59	-1.7	224/262/324	100	290	5	8	24%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Yeldrys Molina 2009 · A	20	43	38→40	48→50	44	206/265/287	82	281	4	9	27%	7%	57	-1.8	194/252/272	78	285	4	8	31%	7%	49	-2.4	139/198/200	60	203	0	9	29%	6%	11	-1.2
✕Luis Rubio 2022 · A	20	39	35→30	44→45	41	180/251/235	55	297	2	7	37%	8%	40	-3.0	184/253/240	56	284	2	8	33%	8%	42	-2.9	158/236/188	30	234	0	8	30%	8%	22	-0.9
✕Juan Heredia 2012 · A	20	45	35→30	38→50	52	207/291/269	62	274	2	6	23%	10%	63	-1.3	202/293/262	60	264	2	11	21%	10%	63	-1.4	188/302/244	56	248	0	15	21%	12%	60	-0.7
✕Deivi Mejia 2011 · A	21	40	39→40	43→30	44	193/264/278	85	266	7	5	29%	8%	55	-1.9	212/259/304	92	276	7	4	25%	4%	59	-1.7	224/268/311	87	267	6	1	18%	3%	64	-0.5
✕Payton Henry 2017 · A	20	44→31	36→45	45→30	39	206/265/279	73	298	3	5	30%	5%	55	-1.9	185/251/287	102	313	10	3	41%	6%	53	-2.1	242/289/361	119	320	16	1	29%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Jose Bellorin 2011 · A	20	42	39→40	47→50	42	203/257/285	81	265	6	10	25%	6%	53	-2.1	223/280/308	85	271	6	9	19%	6%	68	-1.0	239/295/316	78	276	6	10	15%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Joshual Ramirez 2016 · A	20	44	36→30	44→50	41	209/258/275	66	277	4	9	25%	5%	51	-2.2	196/245/277	81	273	4	8	28%	5%	47	-2.5	154/194/243	89	210	3	6	27%	4%	18	-1.1
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	47	-2.6	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	53	-2.1	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	49	-0.9
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	50	-2.3	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	47	-2.5	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	20	-1.5
✕Miguel Moreno 2009 · A	19	38	39→40	42→40	48	184/276/263	79	271	7	5	32%	10%	57	-1.8	200/281/271	71	286	5	5	29%	9%	61	-1.5	176/264/209	33	250	3	3	28%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Luis Cruz 2012 · A	19	39	35→40	43→45	42	186/235/238	52	254	2	5	27%	6%	34	-3.5	220/272/314	94	275	9	5	22%	5%	65	-1.2	224/271/298	73	297	6	3	25%	4%	59	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps