Jjam Alvarez

SS DSL Colorado

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1480ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	17	ROKCOL	89	.275/.341/.288	0	5	11	—	.169/.216/.181
2024	18	ROKDSL Colorado	218	.296/.388/.366	1	7	36	—	.187/.266/.218
2025	19	ROKDSL Colorado	120	.215/.387/.280	1	2	27	—	.129/.261/.149
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBCOL	230	.214/.286/.286	2	4	64	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBCOL	24	.230/.301/.327	0	0	70	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBCOL	78	.235/.305/.344	1	1	75	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

BB%87

Z-Con%82

Whiff%78

K%74

Chase%71

wOBA53

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .283 / .284

PA40

HR0

K%25

BB%8

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	89	80	22	1	0	0	7	26	1	5	3	275	341	287	628	12	400	29	8	291	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	218	186	55	8	1	1	22	33	6	7	2	296	388	366	753	70	351	15	10	342	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	120	93	20	3	0	1	24	20	2	2	0	215	387	280	666	65	264	17	20	322	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	89	83	14	1	0	0	4	31	1	5	3	169	216	181	397	12	261	35	4	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	218	193	36	4	1	0	15	38	6	7	2	187	266	218	484	31	218	17	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	120	101	13	2	0	0	16	24	2	2	0	129	261	149	409	20	164	20	13	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	89	83	14	1	0	0	4	31	1	5	3	169	216	181	397	12	264	35	4	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	89	80	22	1	0	0	7	26	1	5	3	275	341	287	628	12	400	29	8	291	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	218	193	36	4	1	0	15	38	6	7	2	187	266	218	484	31	229	17	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	218	186	55	8	1	1	22	33	6	7	2	296	388	366	753	70	351	15	10	342	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	120	101	13	2	0	0	16	24	2	2	0	129	261	149	409	20	169	20	13	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	120	93	20	3	0	1	24	20	2	2	0	215	387	280	666	65	264	17	20	322	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	89	84	14	1	0	0	4	31	1	5	3	167	216	179	394	12	261	35	4	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	218	195	36	4	1	0	15	38	6	7	2	185	266	215	482	31	218	17	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	120	101	13	2	0	0	16	24	2	2	0	129	261	149	409	20	164	20	13	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	218	195	36	4	1	0	15	38	6	7	2	185	266	215	482	31	218	17	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	120	101	13	2	0	0	16	24	2	2	0	129	261	149	409	20	164	20	13	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	COL	0%	230	207	44	7	1	2	18	57	3	4	1	214	286	286	572	72	284	25	8	263	64	-10	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	COL	34%	72	65	14	2	0	1	6	18	1	1	0	219	291	304	595	85	285	25	8	272	70	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	COL	50%	156	141	31	5	1	2	12	38	2	3	1	223	295	319	614	96	287	24	8	279	75	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	COL	57%	238	214	48	7	1	4	19	57	3	4	1	227	298	331	629	105	288	24	8	285	79	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	COL	60%	309	277	64	10	2	6	25	74	4	6	2	229	301	341	641	112	288	24	8	290	82	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	COL	62%	357	321	74	12	2	7	29	85	4	6	2	231	302	348	650	118	289	24	8	293	85	-7	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	COL	63%	379	341	78	12	2	8	31	91	4	7	2	229	301	346	647	116	288	24	8	292	84	-7	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	COL	65%	388	350	79	12	2	8	31	94	4	7	2	228	299	341	641	113	287	24	8	289	82	-8	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	COL	65%	386	348	78	12	2	7	31	95	4	6	3	226	297	335	632	110	286	25	8	286	80	-9	+0	-1	+4	+8	0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	COL	34%	24	22	5	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	230	301	327	628	97	299	25	8	285	70	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	COL	50%	78	71	16	2	1	1	6	19	1	1	0	235	305	344	649	109	301	24	8	293	75	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	COL	57%	135	121	29	4	1	3	11	33	2	2	1	239	309	358	667	119	302	24	8	300	79	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	COL	60%	187	168	41	6	2	4	15	45	2	3	1	241	312	368	680	127	303	24	8	305	82	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	COL	62%	223	200	49	8	2	5	18	53	3	4	1	243	313	376	690	133	303	24	8	309	85	-4	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	COL	63%	240	216	52	8	2	5	19	58	3	4	1	242	312	374	686	132	303	24	8	307	84	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	COL	65%	252	227	54	8	2	6	20	61	3	4	2	240	310	369	679	129	302	24	8	304	82	-5	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	COL	65%	251	226	53	8	2	5	20	62	3	4	2	237	308	362	669	124	300	25	8	300	80	-6	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1390	1251	299	45	12	29	111	337	17	22	8	239	310	364	673	125	303	24	8	303	73	-31	+1	-1	+15	+30	1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	141	21	6	14	52	158	8	10	4	241	312	369	681	128	305	24	8	303	73	-14	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2752	2471	536	80	13	43	222	655	35	55	18	217	291	312	603	95	276	24	8	276	73	-53	+3	-2	+25	+50	2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	126	19	3	10	52	155	8	13	4	216	289	310	599	94	274	24	8	276	73	-15	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Colorado · 120 PAwOBA .315 → .208 (−107)K% 16.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.016	×1.220	—	—	20.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×0.995	13.58%
HBP% /PA	1.67%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	1.16%
Singles /BIP	21.92%	÷1.008	×0.680	×0.950	×0.995	13.98%
Doubles /BIP	4.11%	÷1.011	×0.600	×0.950	×0.995	2.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.011	×0.600	×0.950	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.37%	÷1.163	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.55%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 102, 3B 102, K 103, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .315 → .208; ISO .065 → .033; BABIP .264 → .164. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Colorado · 218 PAwOBA .336 → .221 (−115)K% 15.1% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.14%	÷1.054	×1.220	—	—	17.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.09%	÷0.998	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.13%
HBP% /PA	2.75%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.94%
Singles /BIP	29.41%	÷1.014	×0.680	×0.960	×1.008	19.08%
Doubles /BIP	5.23%	÷1.186	×0.600	×0.960	×1.008	2.56%
Triples /BIP	0.65%	÷0.916	×0.600	×0.960	×1.008	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	0.65%	÷1.038	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.30%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 103, 2B 137, 3B 83, K 111, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .336 → .221; ISO .070 → .037; BABIP .351 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Rockies · 89 PAwOBA .287 → .184 (−104)K% 29.2% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.21%	÷1.017	×1.220	—	—	35.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.87%	÷1.119	×0.700	—	×1.022	5.03%
HBP% /PA	1.12%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.80%
Singles /BIP	38.89%	÷1.006	×0.680	×0.950	×1.022	25.53%
Doubles /BIP	1.85%	÷0.975	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	1.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.968	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 100, K 103, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .287 → .184; ISO .013 → .007; BABIP .400 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
#1Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	/162	664	3	5	233*	291*	316*	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Kiko Garcia'76-'85 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	12	34	232*	283*	343*	+14	+14	2.2	3.0
#4Kiko Garcia'76-'85 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	/162	664	5	14	232*	283*	343*	+5.7	+6.0	0.9	pk7: 4
#5Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
#5Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	/162	664	3	3	229*	288*	313*	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.2	1,430	26	25	228	297	339	+15	+18	2.5	2.5
	/162	664	12	12	228	297	339	+7.1	+8.4	1.1	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Jjam Alvarez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps