Blaze Pontes

P Midland RockHounds

Age 27 RHP 5'10" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+OAK	26	10	88	7.36	5.09	10.8%	9.9%	—	K 8.3% · BB 11.3% · FIP 5.98
2025	25	A+OAK	42	0	50	1.79	2.84	17.5%	9.7%	—	K 13.5% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.37
2026	26	MIX2 levels	41	0	50	4.11	3.64	18.6%	14.5%	—	K 14.8% · BB 16.2% · FIP 4.19
2027PROJ	27	MLBOAK	67	0	70	5.82	5.82	11.7%	15.8%	-1.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBOAK	25	0	26	5.72	5.75	12.7%	15.2%	-0.3
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBOAK	34	0	36	5.71	5.77	13.3%	15.0%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control40Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMike Hepple (age 26) · Trey Haley (age 26) · Julian Arballo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 127

ERA5.82

FIP5.82

K%11.7%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%-4.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	8	36	5	2	1	0%	1.3	13.9%	5.6%	8.3%	2.8%	9.00	4.16	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	8	36	5	2	1	0%	1.3	13.9%	5.6%	8.3%	2.8%	9.00	4.22	—
2023	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	39	1	61	265	65	21	3	3%	1.6	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	1.6%	3.23	3.61	—
2023	23	A RAW	Stockton Ports	39	1	61	265	65	21	3	3%	1.6	24.5%	7.9%	16.6%	1.1%	3.23	2.64	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	26	10	88	406	44	40	11	38%	3.4	8.3%	11.3%	-3.0%	3.9%	7.36	5.98	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	26	10	88	406	44	40	11	38%	3.4	8.3%	11.3%	-3.0%	3.9%	7.36	5.98	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	26	10	88	406	44	40	11	38%	3.4	10.8%	9.9%	1.0%	2.7%	7.36	5.09	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	42	0	50	217	38	21	0	0%	1.2	13.5%	11.1%	2.4%	0.0%	1.79	3.37	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	42	0	50	217	38	21	0	0%	1.2	13.5%	11.1%	2.4%	0.0%	1.79	3.37	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	42	0	50	217	38	21	0	0%	1.2	17.5%	9.7%	7.8%	0.0%	1.79	2.84	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	50	220	41	32	1	0%	1.2	14.8%	16.2%	-1.3%	0.5%	4.11	4.19	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	50	220	41	32	1	0%	1.2	14.8%	16.2%	-1.3%	0.5%	4.11	4.19	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	50	220	41	32	1	0%	1.2	18.6%	14.5%	4.1%	0.5%	4.11	3.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	OAK	67	0	70	296	34	47	7	0%	1.0	11.7%	15.8%	-4.1%	2.4%	5.82	5.82	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	OAK	65	0	68	287	36	44	7	0%	1.0	12.7%	15.2%	-2.5%	2.6%	5.72	5.75	-0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	OAK	62	0	65	274	36	41	8	0%	1.0	13.3%	15.0%	-1.7%	2.8%	5.71	5.77	-0.9
2028	28	MLB CTX	OAK	25	0	26	110	14	17	3	0%	1.0	12.7%	15.2%	-2.5%	2.6%	5.72	5.75	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	OAK	34	0	36	152	20	23	4	0%	1.1	13.3%	15.0%	-1.7%	2.8%	5.71	5.77	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	260	34	39	7	0%	1.0	13.0%	15.1%	-2.1%	2.7%	5.71	5.38	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	110	127	23	0%	1.1	13.0%	15.1%	-2.1%	2.7%	5.71	5.38	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		154	11	258	1144	149	132	22	7%	1.7	13.0%	11.6%	1.4%	1.9%	4.71	4.53	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	9	200	887	115	103	17	7%	1.7	13.0%	11.6%	1.4%	1.9%	4.71	4.53	-2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blaze Pontes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.82	11.7%	15.8%	2.4%	—	5.76	13.0%	-2.2%	133	-0.06	—	—	—
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	87
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	86
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	84
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	84
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	82
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	82
Pat Light R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	11.8%	14.1%	1.4%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	172	81
David Goforth R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	14.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.333	4.52	13.9%	4.6%	122	-0.16	3.98	256	80
Kevin Kopps R 2024 · 5.03 FIP	27	SU	5.03	11.6%	14.0%	2.1%	.308	4.97	15.7%	3.2%	61	-0.06	3.45	237	80
Nate Bump R 2003 · 4.74 FIP	27	SU	4.74	10.2%	12.0%	1.8%	.244	4.27	12.5%	5.5%	112	-0.47	4.06	148	80
Fernando Villalobos R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	30	SU	5.33	8.3%	13.1%	2.3%	.365	4.36	11.4%	3.1%	109	-0.97	4.00	152	79
Will Carter R 2019 · 4.93 FIP	26	SU	4.93	11.1%	14.3%	1.8%	.278	3.93	20.3%	4.6%	67	-1.00	3.15	335	78
Oscar Verdugo R 2017 · 6.31 FIP	27	SU	6.31	10.3%	13.8%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	144	78
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	77
Livan Reinoso R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.1%	17.7%	1.5%	.229	5.67	16.1%	-2.1%	99	+0.77	4.36	219	77
Jordan Gore R 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.2%	18.5%	2.2%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	113	77
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	77
Jack Anderson R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	27	SU	5.12	10.9%	13.4%	2.3%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	250	77
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	76
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	12.5%	15.4%	1.00	5.75
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*