Hayden Nierman — OGILVIE

Hayden Nierman P Aberdeen IronBirds

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%22.2%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	2	6	3	1	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	16.7%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	2	6	3	1	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	16.7%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	11	46	13	4	0	0%	0.8	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	4.76	1.81	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	11	46	13	4	0	0%	0.8	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	4.76	1.86	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	0	23	110	27	15	0	0%	1.2	12.4%	20.4%	-8.0%	0.0%	3.91	4.64	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	0	23	110	27	15	0	0%	1.2	12.4%	20.4%	-8.0%	0.0%	3.91	4.64	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	0	23	110	27	15	0	0%	1.2	24.5%	13.6%	10.9%	0.0%	3.91	2.71	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	8	0	8	40	4	6	1	0%	1.0	10.0%	15.0%	-5.0%	2.5%	7.88	5.53	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	8	0	8	40	4	6	1	0%	1.0	10.0%	15.0%	-5.0%	2.5%	7.88	5.53	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	8	0	8	40	4	6	1	0%	1.0	10.0%	15.0%	-5.0%	2.5%	7.88	5.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	BAL	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	3.0%	4.66	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	19	0	20	84	19	9	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	3.1%	4.67	4.71	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	3.1%	4.67	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	3.1%	4.67	4.33	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	82	27	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	3.1%	4.67	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		44	0	44	202	34	33	1	0%	1.0	16.7%	16.6%	0.1%	0.5%	4.67	4.06	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		198	0	200	911	152	151	5	0%	1.0	16.7%	16.6%	0.1%	0.5%	4.67	4.06	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Nierman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	22.2%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.71	22.2%	11.0%	20	+0.05	—	—	—
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	87
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	84
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	83
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	83
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	83
Brandon Gomes R 2011 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	20.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	4.17	22.3%	15.2%	71	+0.43	3.48	190	82
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	82
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	82
Greg Aquino R 2005 · 5.03 FIP	27	SU	5.03	21.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.357	4.34	22.5%	13.3%	62	-0.69	4.10	154	82
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	82
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	81
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	81
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	81
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	80
Brad Deppermann R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	22.7%	9.4%	3.4%	.417	2.87	19.5%	13.2%	71	-1.38	1.94	143	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	80
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	80
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	80