Cruzmel Arias — OGILVIE

Cruzmel AriasC ACL Rockies

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 176 lbs ROK HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION87 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .111 / .111

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%5

BABIP287

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT42

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	155	133	38	5	0	1	14	27	7	6	8	286	383	346	729	60	352	17	9	338	115	+3	-2	—	—	+3	0.4
2023	19	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	82	69	17	4	0	0	5	9	4	0	1	246	333	304	638	58	266	11	6	285	79	-2	-0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	20	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	169	151	39	7	1	0	8	29	7	0	0	258	325	318	643	60	320	17	5	292	84	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.0
2025	21	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	79	72	12	5	0	0	4	22	2	1	1	167	231	236	467	69	235	28	5	215	32	-6	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	155	138	30	4	0	1	9	39	7	6	8	217	299	268	567	51	280	25	6	241	49	-9	-2	—	—	+3	-0.8
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	82	71	14	3	0	0	3	13	4	0	1	197	269	239	509	42	209	16	4	225	38	-6	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	169	154	31	5	1	0	5	42	7	0	0	201	259	247	506	45	265	25	3	217	33	-13	+0	—	—	+4	-1.0
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	79	73	8	3	0	0	3	32	2	1	1	110	167	151	317	41	190	41	4	146	-15	-11	-0	—	—	+2	-0.9
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	155	138	30	4	0	1	9	39	7	6	8	217	299	268	567	51	296	25	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	155	133	38	5	0	1	14	27	7	6	8	286	383	346	729	60	352	17	9	338	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	82	71	14	3	0	0	3	13	4	0	1	197	269	239	509	42	226	16	4	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	82	69	17	4	0	0	5	9	4	0	1	246	333	304	638	58	266	11	6	285	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	169	154	31	5	1	0	5	42	7	0	0	201	259	247	506	45	277	25	3	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	169	151	39	7	1	0	8	29	7	0	0	258	325	318	643	60	320	17	5	292	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	79	73	8	3	0	0	3	32	2	1	1	110	167	151	317	41	190	41	4	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	—	79	72	12	5	0	0	4	22	2	1	1	167	231	236	467	69	235	28	5	215	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	155	138	30	4	0	1	9	39	7	6	8	217	299	268	567	51	280	25	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	82	75	14	3	0	0	3	13	4	0	1	187	269	227	496	40	209	16	4	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	169	155	31	5	1	0	5	42	7	0	0	200	259	245	504	45	265	25	3	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	79	74	8	3	0	0	3	32	2	1	1	108	167	149	315	41	190	41	4	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	82	75	14	3	0	0	3	13	4	0	1	187	269	227	496	40	209	16	4	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	169	155	31	5	1	0	5	42	7	0	0	200	259	245	504	45	265	25	3	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	—	79	74	8	3	0	0	3	32	2	1	1	108	167	149	315	41	190	41	4	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	ROK MLE	COL	—	87	80	16	1	1	1	5	21	1	0	1	200	256	275	531	75	254	24	6	227	40	-6	-0	+0	+2	+2	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	ROK RAW	COL	—	60	52	12	1	0	0	7	10	0	0	0	231	322	250	572	19	279	17	12	269	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A RAW	COL	—	27	25	7	0	1	1	1	5	1	0	1	280	333	480	813	200	316	19	4	358	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	ROK MLE	COL	0%	9	9	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	111	111	111	222		272	22	0	246	53	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	ROK MLE	COL	—	96	89	17	1	1	1	5	23	1	0	1	191	242	258	501	67	242	24	5	229	41	-7	-0	+0	+2	+2	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	34%	179	165	35	6	1	2	10	46	2	2	1	212	266	297	563	85	276	26	6	258	61	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	46%	292	269	58	10	2	4	17	73	4	4	2	216	272	312	585	97	278	25	6	266	66	-12	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	52%	360	330	72	12	2	6	22	90	5	6	3	218	277	321	599	103	279	25	6	271	70	-13	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	54%	406	373	81	14	2	7	25	101	5	7	3	217	275	322	597	105	279	25	6	273	71	-14	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	54%	426	390	87	15	3	8	27	106	6	7	3	223	284	338	622	115	279	25	6	273	71	-15	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	54%	436	399	88	15	3	8	28	109	6	7	3	221	282	333	615	113	278	25	6	272	70	-15	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	435	398	86	15	2	7	28	110	6	7	3	216	278	317	594	101	277	25	6	270	69	-16	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	52%	430	393	84	14	2	7	28	109	6	7	3	214	276	313	589	99	276	25	7	268	67	-17	+0	-2	+8	+9	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	34%	62	57	12	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	211	274	298	572	88	290	26	6	262	61	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	46%	135	124	28	5	1	2	8	34	2	2	1	226	284	331	614	105	293	25	6	271	66	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	52%	186	171	40	7	1	4	11	46	2	3	1	234	288	357	645	123	294	25	6	277	70	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	54%	220	201	47	8	2	4	14	55	3	4	2	234	294	353	647	119	294	25	6	279	71	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	54%	231	211	50	9	2	5	15	57	3	4	2	237	297	370	667	133	294	25	6	279	71	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	54%	237	217	51	9	2	5	15	59	3	4	2	235	294	364	658	129	293	25	6	278	70	-8	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	231	211	48	8	2	4	15	58	3	4	2	227	288	341	629	114	292	25	6	276	69	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	52%	225	205	47	8	2	4	15	57	3	4	2	229	291	346	638	117	291	25	7	273	67	-9	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1527	1397	323	56	12	29	97	382	20	26	12	231	291	351	641	120	296	25	6	276	64	-56	+0	-2	+27	+33	0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	137	24	5	12	41	163	9	11	5	230	290	348	638	118	296	25	6	276	64	-24	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3458	3162	675	116	18	50	205	872	60	54	31	213	274	309	583	96	277	25	6	262	64	-110	+1	-4	+53	+64	0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	126	22	3	9	39	164	11	10	6	212	273	305	578	93	275	25	6	262	64	-24	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.4	1,614	26	26	218	274	322	+29	+20	1.3	1.3
/162	664	11	11	+11.9	+8.2	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cruzmel Arias (OGILVIE)	22	37→42	28→33	43→48	40	203/256/281	77	272	1	1	26%	5%	53	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	46→45	40	194/253/278	85	271	5	6	29%	6%	51	-2.3	196/253/280	84	275	6	9	29%	6%	51	-2.2	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2021 · A	22	43	36→45	50→40	46	203/265/271	69	261	4	5	23%	7%	54	-2.0	218/265/313	95	269	7	4	21%	5%	63	-1.4	233/269/347	114	277	11	0	20%	4%	71	-0.4
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2021 · A	22	44	38→40	47→45	46	212/264/289	77	261	5	6	21%	6%	57	-1.8	222/269/310	88	273	9	6	21%	6%	63	-1.3	220/282/315	95	243	11	8	14%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Luis De La Cruz 2011 · A	22	39	40→30	47→30	38	193/228/291	98	250	6	6	26%	4%	44	-2.8	234/265/314	80	285	4	6	19%	4%	62	-1.4	265/287/332	67	311	3	4	16%	3%	71	-0.3
✕Roberto Alvarez 2021 · A	22	44→42	37→30	49→40	39	213/248/282	69	272	4	5	23%	4%	49	-2.4	228/284/297	69	300	4	5	24%	6%	66	-1.1	240/304/298	58	310	1	2	21%	6%	72	-0.2
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	42	40→45	49→40	43	204/260/298	94	268	7	6	26%	6%	58	-1.7	192/251/306	114	277	11	4	33%	6%	57	-1.8	208/275/351	144	265	17	1	28%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	41	41→40	46→45	39	201/255/297	96	286	8	8	32%	6%	55	-1.9	198/263/285	87	291	7	9	32%	7%	57	-1.8	182/254/257	75	267	7	8	32%	8%	46	-1.1
✕José Alvarez 2022 · A	22	46	36→40	51→50	39	213/262/283	69	308	3	9	30%	6%	55	-2.0	229/278/293	64	327	3	10	29%	6%	62	-1.4	236/285/285	49	331	2	10	27%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Luke Williams 2019 · A	22	40→44	38→45	50→65	41	197/248/266	70	256	6	15	25%	5%	46	-2.6	206/264/300	94	275	7	19	26%	7%	60	-1.6	222/284/339	116	307	11	42	29%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/231/293	99	262	8	10	29%	4%	45	-2.7	197/236/286	89	278	6	9	30%	5%	45	-2.7	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕J.C. Millan 2018 · A	22	40	37→40	45→30	36	194/235/270	76	278	4	8	31%	4%	41	-3.0	218/265/312	94	270	8	6	22%	6%	63	-1.4	223/270/312	90	261	9	4	18%	6%	61	-0.6
✕Stevie Berman 2017 · A	22	45	37→45	48→40	45	212/278/284	72	279	4	6	24%	7%	61	-1.5	213/272/300	87	267	7	4	22%	7%	63	-1.4	208/297/323	115	249	13	2	21%	9%	76	-0.1
✕Alexis Wilson 2019 · A	22	41	38→40	48→30	45	195/262/274	79	264	5	4	27%	8%	53	-2.1	220/270/311	91	282	9	5	24%	6%	64	-1.3	224/269/304	80	272	10	1	21%	5%	59	-0.6
✕Nic Kent 2022 · A	22	43→42	36→40	47→50	41	203/263/272	69	280	3	9	27%	6%	53	-2.1	194/242/269	75	268	6	11	29%	5%	45	-2.7	200/260/285	86	274	8	9	29%	6%	52	-1.3
✕Juan Fernandez 2021 · A	22	43→53	38→40	46→50	43	207/263/290	82	269	6	6	24%	6%	57	-1.8	230/288/322	92	291	8	9	23%	6%	74	-0.5	237/297/317	80	293	7	9	21%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→48	39→45	48→50	45	182/274/268	86	264	6	10	31%	8%	58	-1.7	206/278/301	95	283	7	11	28%	7%	66	-1.1	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Narbe Cruz 2023 · A	22	41	38→45	44→45	40	196/250/274	78	266	5	7	27%	5%	49	-2.4	214/267/306	92	306	8	6	31%	5%	62	-1.4	214/268/307	93	310	9	6	32%	5%	59	-0.8
✕Juan Aponte 2010 · A	22	43	39→45	47→40	42	205/270/296	91	272	6	5	26%	6%	61	-1.5	208/257/272	64	306	3	5	31%	5%	50	-2.3	199/234/217	18	292	0	0	30%	3%	29	-0.8
✕Jose Cordova 2023 · A	23	43	36→40	49→50	38	203/256/271	67	296	3	8	31%	5%	50	-2.3	213/270/290	77	305	4	9	29%	6%	59	-1.6	229/290/316	87	306	5	11	25%	7%	70	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps