Cruzmel Arias — OGILVIE

Cruzmel AriasC ACL Rockies

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 176 lbs ROK HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 40 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†43

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .225 / .211

PA40

HR0

K%28

BB%5

BABIP259

ISO26

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT42

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE39

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	155	138	28	4	0	0	9	39	7	6	8	203	286	232	518	29	283	25	6	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	155	133	38	5	0	1	14	27	7	6	8	286	383	346	729	60	352	17	9	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	82	71	14	3	0	0	3	13	4	0	1	197	269	239	509	42	226	16	4	225	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	82	69	17	4	0	0	5	9	4	0	1	246	333	304	638	58	266	11	6	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	169	155	31	5	1	0	4	42	7	0	0	200	253	245	498	45	274	25	2	217	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	169	151	39	7	1	0	8	29	7	0	0	258	325	318	643	60	320	17	5	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	79	73	8	3	0	0	3	32	2	1	1	110	167	151	317	41	190	41	4	144	-32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	79	72	12	5	0	0	4	22	2	1	1	167	231	236	467	69	235	28	5	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	ROK	COL	—	60	55	10	1	0	0	4	14	0	0	0	182	237	200	437	18	238	23	7	202	13	-6	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
YTD	22	ROK	COL	—	60	52	12	1	0	0	7	10	0	0	0	231	322	250	572	19	279	17	12	269	64	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
ROS	22	ROK	COL	0%	40	38	7	1	0	0	2	11	0	0	0	184	225	211	436	26	271	28	5	241	43	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	COL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		291	—	—	248	48	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	22	ROK	COL	—	60	56	10	1	0	0	4	14	0	0	0	179	237	196	434	18	233	23	7	202	13	-6	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
TOT	22	ROK	COL	—	100	93	17	2	0	0	6	25	0	0	0	183	232	204	437	22	246	25	6	218	25	-8	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	COL	34%	148	136	29	5	1	2	9	38	2	2	1	213	272	309	581	96	275	26	6	255	53	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	COL	46%	268	247	52	9	1	4	16	68	3	4	1	211	267	304	571	93	278	25	6	264	60	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2029	25	MLB	COL	52%	344	315	68	12	2	5	22	87	4	6	2	216	276	314	590	98	279	25	6	269	64	-14	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.2
2030	26	MLB	COL	54%	395	362	79	14	2	7	25	100	5	7	2	218	278	326	604	108	279	25	6	271	66	-15	+1	+0	+7	+11	0.4
2031	27	MLB	COL	54%	419	384	83	15	2	7	27	106	5	7	3	216	276	320	597	104	279	25	6	271	66	-16	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.3
2027	23	MLB	COL	34%	51	47	11	2	0	1	3	13	1	1	0	234	294	340	635	106	295	25	6	263	60	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	24	MLB	COL	46%	124	114	27	5	1	2	8	32	1	2	1	237	293	351	644	114	298	26	6	273	67	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	25	MLB	COL	52%	178	163	38	7	1	3	11	45	2	3	1	233	290	344	633	110	299	25	6	278	71	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2030	26	MLB	COL	54%	214	195	45	8	1	4	14	54	3	4	1	231	292	344	636	113	300	25	7	281	73	-6	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.4
2031	27	MLB	COL	54%	227	207	48	9	1	4	15	57	3	4	1	232	293	343	636	111	299	25	7	281	73	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	794	727	169	31	4	14	51	201	10	14	4	232	292	344	636	111	300	25	6	278	71	-26	+1	+0	+14	+22	1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	137	25	3	11	42	165	8	11	3	230	290	338	628	108	299	25	6	278	71	-21	+1	+0	+12	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	2099	1919	399	71	9	25	120	536	39	33	19	208	269	293	562	85	273	26	6	254	53	-112	-1	+0	+37	+59	-1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	124	22	3	8	37	166	12	10	6	209	269	296	565	88	274	26	6	254	53	-35	-0	+0	+12	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	155	133	38	5	0	1	14	27	7	6	8	286	383	346	729	60	352	17	9	338	117	+3	-2	—	—	+4	0.5
2023	19	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	82	69	17	4	0	0	5	9	4	0	1	246	333	304	638	58	266	11	6	285	76	-2	-0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2024	20	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	169	151	39	7	1	0	8	29	7	0	0	258	325	318	643	60	320	17	5	292	82	-3	+0	—	—	+5	0.1
2025	21	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	79	72	12	5	0	0	4	22	2	1	1	167	231	236	467	69	235	28	5	215	23	-7	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	867	13	14	216	272	317	+15	+12	0.3	0.4
	/162	664	10	11	216	272	317	+11.9	+9.2	0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cruzmel Arias (OGILVIE)	22	37→42	28→33	43→48	39	183/232/204	22	246	0	0	25%	6%	25	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	39→40	46→45	40	193/251/277	85	270	5	6	30%	6%	43	-2.2	194/250/277	83	275	7	9	30%	6%	43	-2.2	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Narbe Cruz 2023 · A	22	41	38→40	44→45	40	197/250/273	76	268	5	7	28%	5%	42	-2.3	215/268/305	90	308	8	6	31%	5%	58	-1.2	215/271/305	90	313	9	6	32%	5%	54	-0.7
✕Luis De La Cruz 2011 · A	22	39	40	47→30	38	193/229/294	101	252	6	6	26%	4%	37	-2.6	234/265/316	82	286	5	6	19%	4%	58	-1.2	263/286/335	71	310	4	4	16%	3%	67	-0.2
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2021 · A	22	43	36→45	50→40	46	203/265/271	69	261	4	5	23%	7%	48	-1.9	218/265/320	102	270	9	4	22%	5%	60	-1.0	231/267/357	126	276	14	0	22%	4%	69	-0.2
✕Roberto Alvarez 2021 · A	22	44→42	36→30	49→40	38	212/247/278	66	277	4	5	25%	4%	40	-2.4	228/285/296	68	302	4	5	24%	6%	62	-0.9	240/305/296	56	311	1	2	21%	7%	68	-0.1
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2021 · A	22	45	38→40	47→45	46	212/265/289	77	262	5	6	20%	6%	52	-1.6	223/270/310	87	274	8	6	21%	6%	59	-1.1	215/285/319	104	236	12	5	15%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	41	39→50	49→40	43	198/254/288	90	263	6	6	26%	6%	47	-1.9	192/251/307	115	278	12	4	34%	6%	52	-1.6	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕J.C. Millan 2018 · A	22	40	37→45	45→30	36	194/235/268	74	277	4	8	31%	4%	33	-2.9	221/267/321	100	274	9	6	22%	6%	61	-1.0	227/273/327	101	266	11	4	19%	6%	61	-0.4
✕Leobaldo Piña 2016 · A	22	45→43	37→40	51→45	42	211/261/284	73	283	3	9	26%	6%	48	-1.9	223/262/312	89	294	8	5	26%	5%	56	-1.3	226/262/314	88	295	8	4	26%	4%	53	-1.0
✕Kenneth Betancourt 2022 · A	22	40→50	35→40	44→50	37	192/231/251	59	272	3	8	30%	5%	27	-3.3	238/281/310	72	313	4	9	24%	5%	63	-0.9	251/293/317	66	325	4	10	23%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Alexis Wilson 2019 · A	22	41	38→40	48→30	45	195/262/274	79	263	5	4	27%	8%	47	-1.9	219/268/308	89	279	8	5	24%	6%	58	-1.2	222/264/298	76	267	10	1	21%	4%	51	-0.6
✕Alex Todd 2012 · A	22	38	37→40	44→45	38	185/246/256	71	259	4	4	29%	5%	37	-2.7	220/285/305	85	299	6	6	27%	5%	65	-0.7	236/303/318	83	317	6	5	26%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Keyber Rodriguez 2023 · A	22	43→48	37→40	46→50	40	207/259/281	73	288	5	8	29%	6%	47	-1.9	211/254/298	87	285	7	15	27%	5%	50	-1.8	213/254/307	94	285	8	10	27%	4%	50	-1.1
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	42	41→40	46→45	39	204/256/303	99	288	9	8	31%	6%	52	-1.6	199/262/282	83	293	7	9	32%	7%	50	-1.8	183/253/253	70	269	6	8	32%	7%	37	-1.1
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	291	5	6	30%	6%	49	-1.8	200/255/276	76	267	5	3	26%	5%	45	-2.1	193/253/280	87	245	8	0	24%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/232/296	103	263	8	10	30%	4%	40	-2.4	194/233/281	87	280	5	9	31%	5%	36	-2.7	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕José Alvarez 2022 · A	22	46	36→40	51→50	39	214/262/282	69	308	3	9	30%	6%	48	-1.9	224/273/287	63	329	3	10	31%	6%	54	-1.4	229/277/276	48	330	2	10	30%	6%	48	-0.9
✕Adonis Paula 2016 · A	22	42	37→40	46→40	39	198/256/275	77	296	4	5	33%	6%	45	-2.1	188/238/260	72	352	5	4	45%	5%	33	-2.9	166/215/224	58	319	5	2	47%	5%	12	-1.3