Cruzmel Arias
C ACL Rockies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROKCOL | 169 | .258/.325/.318 | 0 | 0 | 17 | — | .175/.235/.214 |
| 2025 | 21 | ROKCOL | 79 | .167/.231/.236 | 0 | 1 | -16 | — | .108/.154/.149 |
| 2026 | 22 | A/ROKCOL | 87 | .247/.326/.325 | 1 | 0 | 37 | — | .200/.256/.274 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBCOL | 197 | .206/.264/.288 | 2 | 2 | 56 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ29% MLB | 24 | MLBCOL | 33 | .222/.280/.329 | 0 | 0 | 62 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBCOL | 78 | .226/.284/.342 | 1 | 1 | 66 | 0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | — | 155 | 133 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 286 | 383 | 346 | 729 | 60 | 352 | 17 | 9 | 338 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 82 | 69 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 246 | 333 | 304 | 638 | 58 | 266 | 11 | 6 | 285 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 169 | 151 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 325 | 318 | 643 | 60 | 320 | 17 | 5 | 292 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 79 | 72 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 167 | 231 | 236 | 467 | 69 | 235 | 28 | 5 | 215 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 27 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 280 | 333 | 480 | 813 | 200 | 316 | 19 | 4 | 358 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 60 | 52 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 322 | 250 | 572 | 19 | 279 | 17 | 12 | 269 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Colorado | — | 155 | 137 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 33 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 182 | 273 | 204 | 477 | 22 | 234 | 21 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 82 | 71 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 169 | 244 | 211 | 455 | 42 | 173 | 13 | 4 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 169 | 154 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 235 | 214 | 449 | 39 | 217 | 21 | 3 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 79 | 74 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 108 | 154 | 149 | 302 | 41 | 187 | 41 | 3 | 144 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 27 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 296 | 440 | 736 | 200 | 287 | 26 | 4 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 60 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 237 | 200 | 437 | 18 | 226 | 23 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Colorado | — | 155 | 137 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 33 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 182 | 273 | 204 | 477 | 22 | 240 | 21 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Colorado | — | 155 | 133 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 286 | 383 | 346 | 729 | 60 | 352 | 17 | 9 | 338 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 82 | 71 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 169 | 244 | 211 | 455 | 42 | 188 | 13 | 4 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 82 | 69 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 246 | 333 | 304 | 638 | 58 | 266 | 11 | 6 | 285 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 169 | 154 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 235 | 214 | 449 | 39 | 227 | 21 | 3 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 169 | 151 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 325 | 318 | 643 | 60 | 320 | 17 | 5 | 292 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 79 | 74 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 108 | 154 | 149 | 302 | 41 | 186 | 41 | 3 | 144 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK RAW | ACL Rockies | — | 79 | 72 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 167 | 231 | 236 | 467 | 69 | 235 | 28 | 5 | 215 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 87 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 256 | 275 | 531 | 75 | 254 | 24 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 87 | 77 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 247 | 326 | 325 | 650 | 78 | 290 | 17 | 9 | 296 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Colorado | — | 155 | 137 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 33 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 182 | 273 | 204 | 477 | 22 | 234 | 21 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 82 | 75 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 160 | 244 | 200 | 444 | 40 | 173 | 13 | 4 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 169 | 155 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 235 | 213 | 448 | 39 | 217 | 21 | 3 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 79 | 75 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 107 | 154 | 147 | 301 | 40 | 187 | 41 | 3 | 144 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 87 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 198 | 256 | 272 | 527 | 74 | 245 | 24 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 169 | 155 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 235 | 213 | 448 | 39 | 217 | 21 | 3 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 79 | 75 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 107 | 154 | 147 | 301 | 40 | 187 | 41 | 3 | 144 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 87 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 198 | 256 | 272 | 527 | 74 | 245 | 24 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | COL | 0% | 197 | 180 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 264 | 288 | 552 | 82 | 283 | 28 | 6 | 251 | 56 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | COL | 29% | 112 | 103 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 269 | 304 | 573 | 93 | 285 | 28 | 6 | 260 | 62 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | COL | 45% | 171 | 156 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 47 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 273 | 316 | 590 | 102 | 285 | 27 | 6 | 266 | 66 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | COL | 54% | 232 | 212 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 63 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 277 | 326 | 603 | 109 | 286 | 27 | 6 | 271 | 70 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | COL | 58% | 269 | 247 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 73 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 278 | 328 | 605 | 110 | 285 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | COL | 61% | 294 | 270 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 80 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 278 | 327 | 605 | 110 | 285 | 27 | 6 | 272 | 71 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | COL | 62% | 300 | 275 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 82 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 275 | 321 | 596 | 106 | 283 | 27 | 6 | 269 | 68 | -11 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | COL | 29% | 33 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 280 | 329 | 608 | 106 | 299 | 27 | 6 | 274 | 62 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | COL | 45% | 78 | 72 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 284 | 342 | 627 | 116 | 300 | 27 | 6 | 281 | 66 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | COL | 54% | 126 | 115 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 229 | 288 | 353 | 641 | 124 | 300 | 27 | 6 | 286 | 70 | -5 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | COL | 58% | 157 | 144 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 229 | 289 | 354 | 643 | 125 | 300 | 27 | 6 | 288 | 71 | -5 | -0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | COL | 61% | 179 | 163 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 229 | 289 | 353 | 642 | 125 | 299 | 27 | 7 | 287 | 71 | -6 | -0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | COL | 62% | 187 | 171 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 286 | 346 | 632 | 120 | 297 | 27 | 6 | 283 | 68 | -7 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 760 | 696 | 158 | 27 | 7 | 14 | 49 | 206 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 227 | 286 | 346 | 633 | 119 | 300 | 27 | 6 | 285 | 55 | -28 | -1 | -1 | +14 | +16 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 135 | 23 | 6 | 12 | 42 | 176 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 227 | 287 | 346 | 633 | 119 | 300 | 27 | 6 | 285 | 55 | -24 | -1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2008 | 1833 | 373 | 63 | 12 | 25 | 116 | 524 | 37 | 18 | 16 | 203 | 265 | 292 | 557 | 88 | 268 | 26 | 6 | 249 | 55 | -54 | +0 | -2 | +26 | +31 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 120 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 170 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 202 | 264 | 290 | 554 | 88 | 267 | 26 | 6 | 249 | 55 | -25 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKACL Rockies · 60 PAwOBA .267 → .197 (−70)K% 16.7% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 7.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.026 | ×0.975 | 21.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.026 | ×0.975 | 1.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.026 | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .267 → .197; ISO .019 → .014; BABIP .279 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 27 PAwOBA .348 → .284 (−64)K% 18.5% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.52% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 2.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | — | 23.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | — | 4.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .348 → .284; ISO .200 → .158; BABIP .316 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Rockies · 79 PAwOBA .213 → .144 (−69)K% 27.8% → 40.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.85% | ÷0.993 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.06% | ÷0.987 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 3.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.53% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.00% | ÷1.021 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 11.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 7.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .213 → .144; ISO .069 → .045; BABIP .235 → .187. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Rockies · 169 PAwOBA .285 → .193 (−91)K% 17.2% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.16% | ÷1.001 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.73% | ÷1.099 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 2.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.14% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 2.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.41% | ÷1.006 | ×0.680 | ×1.036 | ×0.985 | 17.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷0.977 | ×0.600 | ×1.036 | ×0.985 | 3.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.036 | ×0.985 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.188 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 100, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .285 → .193; ISO .060 → .039; BABIP .320 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Rockies · 82 PAwOBA .292 → .201 (−91)K% 11.0% → 13.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.98% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.10% | ÷1.119 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 3.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.88% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 3.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.67% | ÷1.006 | ×0.680 | ×0.986 | ×0.995 | 14.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.975 | ×0.600 | ×0.986 | ×0.995 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.986 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 100, K 103, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .292 → .201; ISO .058 → .038; BABIP .266 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Colorado · 155 PAwOBA .330 → .222 (−108)K% 17.4% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.42% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.03% | ÷0.967 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.52% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.19% | ÷1.048 | ×0.680 | ×1.032 | ×1.008 | 20.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.72% | ÷1.007 | ×0.600 | ×1.032 | ×1.008 | 2.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.600 | ×1.032 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.271 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.35% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 110, 2B 101, 3B 88, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .330 → .222; ISO .060 → .032; BABIP .352 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).