Carlos Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Carlos GonzalezC ACL Mariners

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 75 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .267 / .254

PA75

HR1

K%31

BB%9

BABIP256

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 27 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT27

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE66

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	139	118	14	3	0	1	14	57	6	0	0	119	246	169	416	51	213	41	10	201	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	139	106	19	4	0	2	26	38	6	0	0	179	370	274	643	94	254	27	19	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	177	154	28	6	0	3	16	69	7	0	1	182	288	279	567	97	305	39	9	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	177	143	40	11	0	4	27	50	7	0	1	280	418	441	859	161	404	28	15	390	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	83	72	11	1	1	0	10	24	0	0	1	153	256	194	451	42	224	29	12	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	83	67	14	1	2	0	15	16	0	0	1	209	354	284	637	75	269	19	18	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	147	126	18	2	0	5	17	59	1	1	1	143	250	278	528	135	200	40	12	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	147	116	22	4	0	5	27	41	1	1	1	190	347	353	701	164	233	28	18	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	ROK	SEA	—	47	41	6	1	0	0	4	14	1	1	0	146	239	171	410	24	214	30	9	188	2	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.3
YTD	22	ROK	SEA	—	47	38	7	1	0	0	7	10	1	1	0	184	326	211	537	26	241	21	15	262	59	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
ROS	22	ROK	SEA	0%	75	67	12	2	0	1	7	23	1	1	0	179	267	254	520	75	260	31	9	256	54	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
ROS	22	MLB	SEA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		258	—	—	245	46	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	22	ROK	SEA	—	47	42	6	1	0	0	4	14	1	1	0	143	239	167	406	24	207	30	9	188	2	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.3
TOT	22	ROK	SEA	—	122	108	18	3	0	1	11	37	2	2	0	167	256	222	478	56	239	30	9	230	34	-9	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	SEA	34%	190	168	34	6	1	4	18	56	2	3	1	202	287	321	609	119	264	29	9	267	62	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2028	24	MLB	SEA	46%	300	266	52	9	1	6	28	86	3	5	2	195	279	305	584	109	268	29	9	274	68	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2029	25	MLB	SEA	52%	368	327	67	12	2	8	34	105	4	6	2	205	288	327	615	122	269	29	9	279	72	-12	+0	+0	+7	+10	0.6
2030	26	MLB	SEA	54%	411	365	75	13	2	10	38	116	5	7	2	205	289	334	623	129	270	28	9	281	73	-12	+1	+0	+7	+12	0.7
2031	27	MLB	SEA	54%	431	382	79	14	2	10	41	122	5	7	2	207	292	332	625	126	270	28	10	281	73	-13	+1	+0	+8	+12	0.8
2032	28	MLB	SEA	54%	440	390	79	14	2	10	42	125	5	7	2	203	288	326	614	123	269	28	10	280	73	-14	+1	-1	+8	+12	0.7
2033	29	MLB	SEA	53%	439	389	79	14	2	10	42	126	5	7	2	203	289	326	615	123	268	29	10	278	71	-14	+1	-1	+8	+12	0.5
2034	30	MLB	SEA	57%	435	385	76	13	2	9	42	126	5	7	2	197	285	312	596	114	267	29	10	275	69	-15	+1	-2	+8	+12	0.3
2035	31	MLB	SEA	59%	411	364	72	12	2	9	40	120	4	6	2	198	284	316	600	118	264	29	10	271	66	-16	+0	-3	+7	+12	0.1
2027	23	MLB	SEA	34%	65	58	11	2	0	1	6	19	1	1	0	190	277	276	553	86	262	29	9	256	54	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	SEA	46%	138	122	25	4	1	3	13	40	2	2	1	205	292	328	620	123	265	29	9	264	60	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2029	25	MLB	SEA	52%	190	168	34	6	1	4	18	54	2	3	1	202	287	321	609	119	267	28	9	268	63	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2030	26	MLB	SEA	54%	223	197	40	7	1	5	21	63	3	4	1	203	290	325	614	122	267	28	9	270	65	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2031	27	MLB	SEA	54%	234	207	41	7	1	5	22	66	3	4	1	198	284	314	598	116	267	28	9	270	65	-9	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2032	28	MLB	SEA	54%	239	211	42	7	1	5	23	68	3	4	1	199	287	313	600	114	267	28	10	269	64	-10	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.1
2033	29	MLB	SEA	53%	233	206	41	7	1	5	22	67	3	4	1	199	286	316	601	117	266	29	9	268	63	-10	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.1
2034	30	MLB	SEA	57%	247	218	43	7	1	5	24	71	3	4	1	197	286	307	593	110	264	29	10	265	61	-11	+0	-1	+4	+7	-0.0
2035	31	MLB	SEA	59%	244	216	42	7	1	5	23	71	3	4	1	194	281	306	587	111	262	29	9	261	58	-12	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1813	1604	319	54	8	38	172	519	23	30	8	199	286	314	599	115	266	29	9	267	62	-77	+3	-4	+32	+51	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	115	19	3	14	62	186	8	11	3	200	287	317	604	117	267	29	10	267	62	-28	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	4046	3573	696	121	17	86	389	1214	53	57	20	195	283	310	594	116	266	30	10	270	65	-160	+3	-7	+72	+115	2.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	112	19	3	14	62	195	9	9	3	195	284	312	596	117	266	30	10	270	65	-26	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	139	106	19	4	0	2	26	38	6	0	0	179	370	274	643	94	254	27	19	314	98	-0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2023	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	177	143	40	11	0	4	27	50	7	0	1	280	418	441	859	161	404	28	15	390	157	+11	-0	—	—	+5	1.6
2024	20	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	83	67	14	1	2	0	15	16	0	0	1	209	354	284	637	75	269	19	18	300	88	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	21	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	147	116	22	4	0	5	27	41	1	1	1	190	347	353	701	164	233	28	18	319	102	+0	-0	—	—	+4	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	10	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,936	42	32	202	284	322	+35	+24	2.3	2.3
	/162	664	14	11	202	284	322	+11.9	+8.2	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	22	22→27	42→47	43→48	66	167/256/222	56	239	1	2	30%	9%	34	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevin Padlo 2018 · A	22	36→40	46→55	44→50	48	183/269/314	131	257	13	8	32%	10%	62	-0.9	197/280/350	153	289	17	9	35%	9%	76	+0.0	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	63	-0.9	212/286/347	135	281	14	10	29%	6%	78	+0.2	214/295/369	155	271	17	10	26%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2017 · A	22	34	47→50	44→40	39	181/246/309	128	264	15	5	36%	7%	50	-1.7	207/262/323	116	285	12	4	30%	6%	60	-1.0	206/261/314	108	276	12	2	29%	6%	55	-0.6
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	41	39→50	49→40	43	198/254/288	90	263	6	6	26%	6%	47	-1.9	192/251/307	115	278	12	4	34%	6%	52	-1.6	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	41→40	46→45	48	206/290/308	102	278	8	6	27%	9%	69	-0.4	221/302/309	88	318	7	6	30%	9%	74	-0.1	242/332/316	74	335	8	6	27%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Adam Zebrowski 2023 · A	22	43→35	44→45	50→40	46	209/287/331	122	293	12	5	31%	9%	73	-0.1	189/250/310	121	292	14	3	38%	7%	52	-1.6	184/236/312	128	274	18	2	38%	5%	44	-1.1
✕Jorge Saez 2013 · A	22	40	41→45	49→30	51	196/271/294	98	243	9	8	23%	9%	56	-1.3	194/261/279	85	273	6	4	29%	8%	48	-1.9	206/269/348	143	287	21	3	35%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Joe DeCarlo 2016 · A	22	36→37	43→55	44→30	42	178/266/287	109	280	11	3	38%	8%	54	-1.4	196/276/343	147	277	18	3	34%	8%	72	-0.2	194/273/355	161	262	20	1	33%	8%	70	-0.2
✕Wynston Sawyer 2014 · A	22	41	43→45	47→45	45	203/262/312	109	249	11	3	23%	6%	57	-1.2	213/278/311	98	269	8	5	23%	7%	63	-0.8	220/307/327	107	283	10	2	24%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Connor Pavolony 2022 · A	22	41	40	52→40	47	195/280/291	95	299	8	10	34%	10%	59	-1.1	174/265/262	88	297	8	6	40%	10%	47	-1.9	140/237/215	74	241	7	2	40%	10%	21	-1.5
✕Chase Strumpf 2021 · A	23	44→36	42→50	49→45	42	208/284/314	106	306	8	7	33%	7%	68	-0.5	195/290/334	139	313	15	5	39%	10%	76	+0.1	179/286/335	156	287	19	4	41%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Dustin Garneau 2010 · A	22	44→37	39→50	51→45	47	210/289/298	89	279	6	6	25%	8%	66	-0.6	198/266/315	117	251	10	5	24%	7%	59	-1.1	171/262/347	177	214	22	1	31%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/232/296	103	263	8	10	30%	4%	40	-2.4	194/233/281	87	280	5	9	31%	5%	36	-2.7	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Andrew Susac 2013 · A	23	42→40	44→50	46→30	45	208/280/323	115	292	11	4	31%	8%	68	-0.5	218/291/365	147	292	17	3	30%	8%	84	+0.6	217/295/377	160	283	19	1	29%	9%	86	+0.4
✕Jack Brannigan 2023 · A	22	42	43→50	48→50	43	202/279/307	104	304	10	13	35%	8%	64	-0.8	200/283/348	148	300	18	17	37%	9%	76	+0.1	182/269/332	150	267	19	18	37%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Andy Paz 2015 · A	22	38	38→40	45	44	185/245/261	75	253	6	5	28%	7%	37	-2.7	210/264/277	67	293	4	6	28%	7%	48	-1.9	226/270/274	48	296	3	7	23%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Tate Blackman 2018 · A	23	40→34	42→45	49→40	44	198/269/304	106	269	10	4	29%	7%	59	-1.1	175/249/267	92	300	10	4	41%	8%	41	-2.3	154/232/237	84	271	10	3	44%	8%	25	-2.5
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→38	46→50	48→45	53	208/301/343	135	264	13	11	25%	11%	82	+0.5	198/289/339	141	285	14	8	33%	10%	77	+0.1	175/277/324	148	244	17	6	34%	11%	65	-0.5