Josnaider Orellana

Josnaider OrellanaC FCL Orioles

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 24 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .292 / .273

PA24

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP312

ISO45

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$19M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Braves	—	94	81	13	2	0	0	9	33	4	0	1	160	277	185	462	25	271	35	10	209	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Braves	—	94	76	15	3	0	0	14	24	4	0	1	197	351	237	588	39	288	26	15	292	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Braves	—	141	129	31	5	0	0	8	36	3	3	0	240	300	279	579	39	330	26	6	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Braves	—	141	123	39	6	0	0	14	23	3	3	0	317	400	366	766	49	386	16	10	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Braves	—	65	60	6	0	0	0	5	23	0	1	0	100	169	100	269		162	35	8	132	-41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Braves	—	65	58	9	0	0	0	7	17	0	1	0	155	246	155	401		220	26	11	200	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	2 teams	—	36	30	8	2	0	1	2	7	2	0	0	267	353	433	786	167	292	19	6	293	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	2 teams	—	36	28	8	2	0	1	4	5	2	0	0	286	412	464	876	179	292	14	11	373	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	ROK	BAL	—	37	30	10	1	0	0	4	9	0	0	0	333	412	367	778	33	435	24	11	333	113	+1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.2
YTD	21	ROK	BAL	—	37	28	11	1	0	0	6	6	0	0	0	393	500	429	929	36	458	16	16	392	158	+2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.4
ROS	21	ROK	BAL	0%	24	22	5	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	227	292	273	564	45	299	25	8	264	60	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
ROS	21	MLB	BAL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		303	—	—	260	57	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	ROK	BAL	—	37	31	10	1	0	0	4	9	0	0	0	323	412	355	767	32	417	24	11	333	113	+1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.2
TOT	21	ROK	BAL	—	61	52	15	2	0	0	6	15	0	0	0	288	362	327	689	38	385	25	10	306	92	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	BAL	34%	169	153	34	5	1	2	12	44	2	2	1	222	287	307	595	85	299	26	7	275	69	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2028	23	MLB	BAL	48%	290	263	61	10	1	5	22	75	3	3	1	232	299	335	633	103	300	26	8	283	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2029	24	MLB	BAL	53%	376	341	80	13	2	7	28	96	4	4	1	235	300	346	646	111	300	26	7	289	79	-9	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.9
2030	25	MLB	BAL	55%	426	387	91	15	2	9	32	109	4	5	1	235	300	354	654	119	300	26	8	292	82	-9	+1	+0	+8	+12	1.2
2031	26	MLB	BAL	56%	457	414	98	16	2	10	35	116	5	5	2	237	304	357	661	121	300	25	8	294	83	-9	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.3
2032	27	MLB	BAL	55%	471	426	100	16	2	10	37	120	5	5	2	235	303	352	656	117	300	25	8	294	83	-9	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.3
2033	28	MLB	BAL	55%	475	430	100	16	2	10	37	122	5	5	2	233	301	349	650	116	300	26	8	293	82	-9	+0	-1	+8	+13	1.2
2034	29	MLB	BAL	53%	471	426	99	16	2	10	37	122	5	5	1	232	301	350	651	117	299	26	8	291	81	-10	+1	-1	+8	+13	1.1
2035	30	MLB	BAL	57%	464	419	96	15	2	9	37	121	5	4	1	229	299	339	638	110	298	26	8	288	79	-11	+0	-2	+8	+13	0.9
2027	22	MLB	BAL	34%	58	53	12	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	226	293	321	614	94	303	26	7	272	66	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	23	MLB	BAL	48%	141	128	30	5	1	2	11	36	1	2	0	234	300	336	636	102	304	26	8	280	72	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2029	24	MLB	BAL	53%	198	179	43	7	1	4	15	51	2	2	1	240	306	358	664	117	305	26	8	286	77	-5	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.4
2030	25	MLB	BAL	55%	233	211	50	8	1	5	18	59	2	3	1	237	303	355	658	118	305	25	8	289	79	-5	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.6
2031	26	MLB	BAL	56%	254	230	55	9	1	6	19	65	3	3	1	239	306	365	671	126	305	26	7	291	81	-6	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.7
2032	27	MLB	BAL	55%	259	234	56	9	1	6	20	66	3	3	1	239	307	363	671	124	304	25	8	291	81	-6	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.7
2033	28	MLB	BAL	55%	260	235	56	9	1	6	20	67	3	3	1	238	306	362	668	123	304	26	8	290	80	-6	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.6
2034	29	MLB	BAL	53%	251	226	53	9	1	5	20	65	3	2	1	235	305	350	655	115	303	26	8	288	79	-6	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.5
2035	30	MLB	BAL	57%	264	238	55	9	1	5	21	69	3	2	1	231	302	340	642	109	302	26	8	285	76	-7	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1918	1735	410	67	8	40	148	493	21	21	7	236	304	353	658	117	306	26	8	287	78	-47	+1	-2	+34	+54	4.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	140	23	3	14	50	167	7	7	2	238	305	359	664	121	307	26	8	287	78	-16	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	3959	3581	822	132	16	73	303	1030	47	42	13	230	298	336	635	107	300	26	8	285	76	-107	+3	-4	+71	+112	7.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	136	22	3	12	50	169	8	7	2	231	300	340	640	109	302	26	8	285	76	-18	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Braves	—	94	76	15	3	0	14	24	4	0	1	197	351	237	588	39	288	26	15	292	81	-2	-0	—	—	+3	0.0
2023	18	ROK	DSL Braves	—	141	123	39	6	0	14	23	3	3	0	317	400	366	766	49	386	16	10	351	127	+4	+1	—	—	+4	0.9
2024	19	ROK	FCL Braves	—	65	58	9	0	0	7	17	0	1	0	155	246	155	401		220	26	11	200	12	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	20	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	15	14	4	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	286	333	571	905	286	300	20	7	392	158	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2025	20	ROK	FCL Braves	—	21	14	4	1	0	3	2	2	0	0	286	474	357	831	71	286	10	14	360	134	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,980	39	21	233	297	345	+35	+24	4.8	4.6
	/162	664	13	7	233	297	345	+11.9	+8.0	1.6	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josnaider Orellana (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	288/362/327	38	385	0	0	25%	10%	92	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Andy Paz 2015 · A	22	38	38→40	45	44	185/245/261	75	253	6	5	28%	7%	37	-2.7	210/264/277	67	293	4	6	28%	7%	48	-1.9	226/270/274	48	296	3	7	23%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	44	-2.1	197/271/306	109	274	10	3	30%	9%	59	-1.1	224/278/372	148	290	19	6	29%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Dusty Ryan 2006 · A	21	37→46	40→50	43→40	38	183/235/269	86	268	8	6	34%	6%	34	-2.8	200/265/307	107	312	12	4	37%	7%	57	-1.2	212/288/371	159	311	18	3	35%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	41	39→50	49→40	43	198/254/288	90	263	6	6	26%	6%	47	-1.9	192/251/307	115	278	12	4	34%	6%	52	-1.6	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2021 · A	21	44	37→55	45→40	42	208/272/281	73	279	3	5	26%	6%	53	-1.5	212/289/325	113	282	11	5	27%	7%	73	-0.1	186/269/361	175	235	26	0	33%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Arturo De Freitas 2022 · A	21	43	38→45	50→40	39	204/264/287	82	286	5	8	29%	5%	51	-1.7	173/225/248	75	289	7	4	40%	6%	24	-3.5	136/184/191	55	233	5	0	42%	5%	-10	-2.1
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	41→51	39→45	50	42	199/261/284	85	279	6	11	30%	7%	50	-1.8	227/277/335	108	310	11	10	29%	6%	69	-0.4	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Elias Díaz 2012 · A	21	39→49	37→50	47→45	40	188/234/265	77	248	4	5	26%	5%	32	-3.0	205/255/289	84	255	6	5	21%	6%	47	-1.9	245/304/378	133	272	15	0	16%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Ramon Mendoza 2023 · A	22	40→50	37→45	48→45	45	189/266/266	77	278	4	7	31%	8%	47	-1.9	210/282/308	98	299	8	5	30%	8%	65	-0.7	232/306/347	116	310	11	3	27%	9%	82	+0.3
✕Deivi Mejia 2011 · A	21	40	39→40	43→30	44	193/264/278	85	266	7	5	29%	8%	50	-1.8	212/259/304	92	276	7	4	25%	4%	53	-1.5	224/268/311	87	267	6	1	18%	3%	59	-0.4
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	39→40	46→45	40	193/251/277	85	270	5	6	30%	6%	43	-2.2	194/250/277	83	275	7	9	30%	6%	43	-2.2	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	291	5	6	30%	6%	49	-1.8	200/255/276	76	267	5	3	26%	5%	45	-2.1	193/253/280	87	245	8	0	24%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Ashton McGee 2021 · A	22	41	39→45	50→40	41	194/258/283	89	288	5	5	33%	7%	48	-1.9	196/284/305	109	362	11	4	44%	10%	66	-0.6	177/274/284	107	334	12	2	45%	11%	53	-0.8