Josnaider Orellana
C FCL Orioles| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKATL | 65 | .155/.246/.155 | 0 | 1 | -24 | — | .098/.154/.098 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKATL | 36 | .286/.412/.464 | 1 | 0 | 88 | — | .275/.385/.433 |
| 2026 | 21 | ROKBAL | 37 | .393/.500/.429 | 0 | 0 | 107 | — | .333/.412/.367 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBBAL | 147 | .206/.272/.278 | 1 | 1 | 57 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBBAL | 33 | .213/.279/.296 | 0 | 0 | 61 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 24 | MLBBAL | 82 | .216/.282/.307 | 1 | 1 | 65 | 0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Braves | — | 94 | 76 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 197 | 351 | 237 | 588 | 39 | 288 | 26 | 15 | 292 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Braves | — | 141 | 123 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 317 | 400 | 366 | 766 | 49 | 386 | 16 | 10 | 351 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Braves | — | 65 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 155 | 246 | 155 | 401 | 220 | 26 | 11 | 200 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 15 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 333 | 571 | 905 | 286 | 300 | 20 | 7 | 392 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Braves | — | 21 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 474 | 357 | 831 | 71 | 286 | 10 | 14 | 360 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 37 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 393 | 500 | 429 | 929 | 36 | 458 | 16 | 16 | 392 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Braves | — | 94 | 80 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 138 | 266 | 163 | 428 | 25 | 200 | 30 | 11 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Braves | — | 141 | 128 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 211 | 279 | 242 | 521 | 31 | 268 | 21 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 65 | 61 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 98 | 154 | 98 | 252 | 169 | 37 | 6 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 15 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 333 | 571 | 905 | 286 | 258 | 27 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 21 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 421 | 333 | 754 | 67 | 229 | 14 | 10 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 37 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 412 | 367 | 778 | 33 | 366 | 24 | 11 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Braves | — | 94 | 80 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 138 | 266 | 163 | 428 | 25 | 212 | 30 | 11 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Braves | — | 94 | 76 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 197 | 351 | 237 | 588 | 39 | 288 | 26 | 15 | 292 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Braves | — | 141 | 128 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 211 | 279 | 242 | 521 | 31 | 270 | 21 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Braves | — | 141 | 123 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 317 | 400 | 366 | 766 | 49 | 386 | 16 | 10 | 351 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 65 | 61 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 98 | 154 | 98 | 252 | 162 | 37 | 6 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Braves | — | 65 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 155 | 246 | 155 | 401 | 220 | 26 | 11 | 200 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 36 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 382 | 448 | 831 | 172 | 304 | 19 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 36 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 412 | 464 | 876 | 179 | 292 | 14 | 11 | 373 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 37 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 412 | 367 | 778 | 33 | 435 | 24 | 11 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK RAW | FCL Orioles | — | 37 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 393 | 500 | 429 | 929 | 36 | 458 | 16 | 16 | 392 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Braves | — | 94 | 80 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 138 | 266 | 163 | 428 | 25 | 200 | 30 | 11 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Braves | — | 141 | 128 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 211 | 279 | 242 | 521 | 31 | 268 | 21 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 65 | 61 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 98 | 154 | 98 | 252 | 169 | 37 | 6 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 36 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 382 | 419 | 802 | 161 | 241 | 19 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 37 | 33 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 303 | 412 | 333 | 745 | 30 | 366 | 24 | 11 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 65 | 61 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 98 | 154 | 98 | 252 | 169 | 37 | 6 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 36 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 382 | 419 | 802 | 161 | 241 | 19 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 37 | 33 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 303 | 412 | 333 | 745 | 30 | 366 | 24 | 11 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 147 | 134 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 206 | 272 | 278 | 550 | 72 | 288 | 29 | 7 | 252 | 57 | -8 | -0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 34% | 99 | 91 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 276 | 290 | 566 | 81 | 289 | 28 | 7 | 259 | 61 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 48% | 171 | 154 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 280 | 301 | 581 | 88 | 290 | 28 | 8 | 265 | 65 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 56% | 238 | 216 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 66 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 282 | 310 | 592 | 94 | 290 | 28 | 8 | 269 | 68 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 60% | 294 | 267 | 59 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 81 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 285 | 317 | 601 | 99 | 290 | 28 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 62% | 323 | 292 | 64 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 88 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 285 | 318 | 604 | 101 | 290 | 27 | 8 | 274 | 71 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 63% | 338 | 306 | 66 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 93 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 283 | 314 | 597 | 98 | 289 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 64% | 337 | 306 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 94 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 213 | 280 | 307 | 588 | 94 | 287 | 28 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -13 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 34% | 33 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 279 | 296 | 575 | 83 | 293 | 27 | 6 | 262 | 61 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 48% | 82 | 75 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 282 | 307 | 590 | 91 | 294 | 28 | 7 | 268 | 65 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 56% | 132 | 120 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 285 | 316 | 601 | 97 | 294 | 28 | 8 | 273 | 68 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 60% | 176 | 159 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 288 | 323 | 611 | 102 | 294 | 27 | 7 | 277 | 71 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 62% | 200 | 181 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 288 | 325 | 614 | 104 | 294 | 28 | 8 | 278 | 71 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 63% | 213 | 193 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 59 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 219 | 286 | 320 | 607 | 101 | 293 | 28 | 8 | 275 | 70 | -8 | -0 | -0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 64% | 214 | 194 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 60 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 283 | 314 | 597 | 97 | 291 | 28 | 7 | 271 | 67 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1050 | 953 | 207 | 33 | 5 | 16 | 78 | 291 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 217 | 283 | 313 | 596 | 95 | 293 | 28 | 7 | 274 | 63 | -39 | +0 | -1 | +19 | +23 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 128 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 180 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 217 | 282 | 312 | 594 | 95 | 293 | 28 | 7 | 274 | 63 | -24 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2211 | 1995 | 422 | 64 | 11 | 28 | 169 | 606 | 26 | 18 | 7 | 212 | 282 | 297 | 578 | 85 | 287 | 27 | 8 | 262 | 63 | -69 | +0 | -2 | +33 | +40 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 124 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 50 | 178 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 212 | 283 | 295 | 578 | 84 | 287 | 27 | 8 | 262 | 63 | -25 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 37 PAwOBA .405 → .326 (−80)K% 16.2% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 9.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 45.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 36.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 3.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .405 → .326; ISO .036 → .028; BABIP .458 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Braves · 21 PAwOBA .389 → .315 (−74)K% 9.5% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 14.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.013 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 8.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 9.52% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 6.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 20.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.996 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 5.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.856 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 101, 2B 99, 3B 100, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .389 → .315; ISO .071 → .063; BABIP .286 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAugusta GreenJackets · 15 PAwOBA .380 → .275 (−105)K% 20.0% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.984 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 16.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 7.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.037 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.281 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 5.76% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 107, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .380 → .275; ISO .286 → .182; BABIP .300 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Braves · 65 PAwOBA .196 → .132 (−64)K% 26.2% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.15% | ÷1.037 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.77% | ÷0.965 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.95% | ÷1.047 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 16.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.266 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 153, 1B 109, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 107, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .196 → .132; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .220 → .169. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Braves · 141 PAwOBA .345 → .238 (−107)K% 16.3% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.31% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.93% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 6.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.00% | ÷1.004 | ×0.680 | ×1.033 | ×0.995 | 22.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.600 | ×1.033 | ×0.995 | 4.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.141 | ×0.600 | ×1.033 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.816 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 101, 2B 83, 3B 128, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .345 → .238; ISO .049 → .033; BABIP .386 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Braves · 94 PAwOBA .286 → .199 (−86)K% 25.5% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.53% | ÷1.027 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.89% | ÷0.994 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.26% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.935 | ×0.680 | ×0.996 | ×1.008 | 16.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.118 | ×0.600 | ×0.996 | ×1.008 | 3.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.122 | ×0.600 | ×0.996 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.885 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 87, 2B 124, 3B 124, K 105, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .286 → .199; ISO .039 → .022; BABIP .288 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).