Adan Sanchez

C ACL Cubs

Age 22 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1650ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	18	ROKCHC	135	.232/.358/.250	0	1	28	—	.168/.261/.176
2024	19	ROKCHC	133	.223/.326/.357	2	0	40	—	.171/.248/.282
2025	20	ROKCHC	48	.256/.333/.372	0	1	35	—	.159/.229/.227
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBCHC	158	.206/.270/.301	2	2	62	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBCHC	22	.213/.277/.318	0	0	66	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	24	MLBCHC	70	.216/.281/.328	1	1	70	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Whiff%73

Z-Con%71

K%64

ISO61

wRC+42

wOBA36

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .268 / .299

PA27

HR0

K%29

BB%7

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	164	131	43	4	2	0	24	26	7	4	3	328	457	389	846	61	402	16	15	389	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	135	112	26	2	0	0	19	31	3	1	1	232	358	250	608	18	317	23	14	294	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	133	112	25	9	0	2	14	26	3	0	4	223	326	357	683	134	261	20	11	303	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	48	43	11	5	0	0	2	9	3	1	2	256	333	372	705	116	324	19	4	322	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	164	138	31	3	1	0	17	33	7	4	3	225	340	261	600	36	280	20	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	135	119	20	1	0	0	12	45	3	1	1	168	261	176	438	8	259	33	9	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	133	117	20	7	0	2	9	38	3	0	4	171	248	282	530	111	205	29	7	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	48	44	7	3	0	0	1	13	3	1	2	159	229	227	456	68	252	27	2	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	164	138	31	3	1	0	17	33	7	4	3	225	340	261	600	36	290	20	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	—	164	131	43	4	2	0	24	26	7	4	3	328	457	389	846	61	402	16	15	389	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	135	119	20	1	0	0	12	45	3	1	1	168	261	176	438	8	267	33	9	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	135	112	26	2	0	0	19	31	3	1	1	232	358	250	608	18	317	23	14	294	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	133	117	20	7	0	2	9	38	3	0	4	171	248	282	530	111	222	29	7	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	133	112	25	9	0	2	14	26	3	0	4	223	326	357	683	134	261	20	11	303	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	48	44	7	3	0	0	1	13	3	1	2	159	229	227	456	68	226	27	2	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	48	43	11	5	0	0	2	9	3	1	2	256	333	372	705	116	324	19	4	322	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	164	139	31	3	1	0	17	33	7	4	3	223	340	259	598	36	280	20	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	135	119	20	1	0	0	12	45	3	1	1	168	261	176	438	8	259	33	9	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	133	120	20	7	0	2	9	38	3	0	4	167	248	275	523	108	205	29	7	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	48	44	7	3	0	0	1	13	3	1	2	159	229	227	456	68	252	27	2	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	133	120	20	7	0	2	9	38	3	0	4	167	248	275	523	108	205	29	7	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	48	44	7	3	0	0	1	13	3	1	2	159	229	227	456	68	252	27	2	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CHC	0%	158	145	30	7	1	2	10	45	2	2	1	206	270	301	572	95	286	28	6	260	62	-7	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	34%	66	61	13	3	0	1	4	19	1	1	0	210	275	314	589	103	287	29	6	266	66	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	CHC	48%	146	133	28	6	1	2	10	41	2	1	1	214	279	324	603	110	288	28	7	272	70	-5	-0	+0	+3	+3	0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	CHC	56%	211	191	40	9	1	3	15	58	3	2	1	216	282	332	614	116	289	27	7	277	73	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	CHC	60%	271	246	53	12	1	5	19	74	4	2	1	218	284	338	622	120	289	27	7	280	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	CHC	62%	309	280	62	14	2	6	22	84	4	3	1	219	285	339	624	120	288	27	7	281	76	-9	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	CHC	63%	328	298	65	14	2	6	23	90	4	2	1	217	283	334	617	118	287	27	7	278	74	-10	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	CHC	64%	330	300	65	14	2	6	23	92	4	1	1	214	280	328	608	114	286	28	7	274	72	-11	-0	-1	+6	+7	0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	34%	22	21	4	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	213	277	318	595	105	291	27	5	269	66	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	CHC	48%	70	64	13	3	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	216	281	328	609	112	292	29	7	274	70	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	CHC	56%	117	106	23	5	1	2	8	32	2	1	0	218	284	335	619	117	292	27	7	279	73	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	CHC	60%	162	148	32	7	1	3	11	44	2	1	1	220	286	341	627	121	292	27	7	282	76	-5	-0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	CHC	62%	191	173	38	9	1	3	14	52	2	2	1	220	287	342	629	121	292	27	7	283	76	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	CHC	63%	207	187	41	9	1	4	15	57	3	1	1	219	285	337	622	119	291	28	7	280	74	-6	-0	-0	+4	+4	0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	CHC	64%	210	190	40	9	1	3	15	58	3	1	1	216	282	331	613	115	289	28	7	276	72	-7	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	979	889	191	43	5	16	69	269	13	7	4	215	281	328	610	114	287	27	7	279	68	-31	-0	-1	+17	+21	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	127	29	3	11	46	179	9	5	3	215	282	331	613	115	288	28	7	279	68	-20	-0	-1	+12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2168	1952	408	87	10	31	157	595	38	18	16	209	281	311	592	102	281	27	7	268	68	-53	+0	-2	+30	+37	1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	122	26	3	9	47	178	11	5	5	209	280	309	589	101	280	27	7	268	68	-21	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKACL Cubs · 48 PAwOBA .314 → .220 (−93)K% 18.8% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷0.969	×1.440	—	—	27.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.17%	÷0.983	×0.620	—	×0.995	2.62%
HBP% /PA	6.25%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	4.48%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷1.004	×0.820	—	×0.995	14.34%
Doubles /BIP	14.71%	÷0.973	×0.720	—	×0.995	10.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.089	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.868	×0.780	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 118, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .314 → .220; ISO .116 → .079; BABIP .324 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Cubs · 133 PAwOBA .305 → .227 (−78)K% 19.5% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.55%	÷0.989	×1.440	—	—	28.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷0.947	×0.620	—	×1.008	6.94%
HBP% /PA	2.26%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	1.64%
Singles /BIP	16.28%	÷1.047	×0.820	×0.994	×1.008	12.76%
Doubles /BIP	10.47%	÷0.903	×0.720	×0.994	×1.008	8.35%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.720	×0.994	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.33%	÷0.935	×0.780	—	×1.008	1.95%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 109, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 98, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .305 → .227; ISO .134 → .106; BABIP .261 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Cubs · 135 PAwOBA .290 → .209 (−82)K% 23.0% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.96%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	33.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.07%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	8.92%
HBP% /PA	2.22%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	1.64%
Singles /BIP	29.63%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.982	×1.022	24.41%
Doubles /BIP	2.47%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.982	×1.022	1.79%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.982	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .290 → .209; ISO .018 → .012; BABIP .317 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Cubs Red · 164 PAwOBA .385 → .274 (−111)K% 15.9% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.85%	÷0.954	×1.220	—	—	20.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.63%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×1.022	10.08%
HBP% /PA	4.27%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.06%
Singles /BIP	35.24%	÷1.002	×0.680	×1.018	×1.022	24.88%
Doubles /BIP	3.81%	÷0.999	×0.600	×1.018	×1.022	2.38%
Triples /BIP	1.90%	÷0.938	×0.600	×1.018	×1.022	1.27%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.154	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 100, 2B 100, 3B 88, K 91, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .385 → .274; ISO .061 → .041; BABIP .402 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
	/162	664	11	1	226*	277*	345*	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.5	1,006	17	7	217	280	334	+18	+20	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	11	5	217	280	334	+11.9	+13.2	0.9	pk7: 1
#4Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
	/162	664	13	1	218*	277*	341*	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#5Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
	/162	664	8	2	211*	275*	330*	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
#6Joel Skinner'83-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,551 PA	2.3	1,551	17	3	227*	270*	327*	+27	-0	-0.6	0.2
#6Joel Skinner'83-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,551 PA	/162	664	7	1	227*	270*	327*	+11.7	-0.1	-0.3	pk7: 1

Adan Sanchez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps