Andy Rodriguez — OGILVIE

Andy Rodriguez P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 182 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%11.7%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%2.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 2	10	0	15	63	13	4	1	0%	1.5	14.0%	7.9%	6.1%	2.5%	3.07	4.29	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 2	10	0	15	63	13	4	1	0%	1.5	20.6%	6.3%	14.3%	1.6%	3.07	3.03	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	5	2	16	63	10	6	0	40%	3.1	10.8%	11.9%	-1.1%	0.0%	1.15	3.70	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	5	2	16	63	10	6	0	40%	3.1	15.9%	9.5%	6.3%	0.0%	1.15	2.97	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	7	0	10	44	14	7	0	0%	1.4	31.8%	15.9%	15.9%	0.0%	3.60	2.43	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	7	0	10	44	14	7	0	0%	1.4	31.8%	15.9%	15.9%	0.0%	3.60	2.43	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	7	0	10	44	14	7	0	0%	1.4	31.8%	15.9%	15.9%	0.0%	3.60	2.40	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	39	154	40	16	5	0%	1.4	18.2%	12.7%	5.5%	4.5%	2.75	5.66	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	39	154	40	16	5	0%	1.4	18.2%	12.7%	5.5%	4.5%	2.75	5.66	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	39	154	40	16	5	0%	1.4	26.0%	10.4%	15.6%	3.2%	2.75	3.94	—
2025	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	39	0	53	228	38	11	1	0%	1.4	12.3%	5.7%	6.6%	0.5%	4.61	3.05	—
2025	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	39	0	53	228	38	11	1	0%	1.4	12.3%	5.7%	6.6%	0.5%	4.61	3.05	—
2025	23	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	39	0	53	228	38	11	1	0%	1.4	16.7%	4.8%	11.8%	0.4%	4.61	2.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	0	30	130	24	15	4	0%	1.4	14.2%	13.3%	0.9%	3.8%	3.86	5.69	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	0	30	130	24	15	4	0%	1.4	14.2%	13.3%	0.9%	3.8%	3.86	5.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	TB	22	0	30	130	24	15	4	0%	1.4	18.5%	11.5%	6.9%	3.1%	3.86	4.69	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TB	6	0	6	26	3	2	1	0%	1.0	11.7%	8.8%	2.9%	2.7%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	36	156	27	17	5	—	—	17.3%	11.1%	6.3%	3.0%	4.07	5.59	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	65	0	68	287	41	25	8	0%	1.0	14.1%	8.7%	5.5%	2.7%	4.94	4.89	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	65	0	68	287	45	25	8	0%	1.0	15.6%	8.7%	6.9%	2.8%	4.82	4.77	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	64	0	67	283	45	25	8	0%	1.0	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	2.8%	4.79	4.79	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	62	0	65	274	44	25	8	0%	1.0	16.0%	8.9%	7.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.86	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	28	0	29	122	17	11	3	0%	1.0	14.1%	8.7%	5.5%	2.7%	4.94	4.89	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	43	0	45	190	30	16	5	0%	1.0	15.6%	8.7%	6.9%	2.8%	4.82	4.77	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	50	0	52	220	35	19	6	0%	1.0	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	2.8%	4.79	4.79	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	52	0	55	232	37	21	7	0%	1.1	16.0%	8.9%	7.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.86	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	764	119	67	22	0%	1.1	15.6%	8.8%	6.8%	2.8%	4.83	4.44	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	132	74	24	0%	1.1	15.6%	8.8%	6.8%	2.8%	4.83	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		112	2	163	682	104	69	15	2%	1.5	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	2.2%	3.49	4.28	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	2	200	839	128	85	18	2%	1.5	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	2.2%	3.49	4.28	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andy Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	11.7%	8.8%	2.7%	—	4.82	15.2%	6.5%	203	-0.28	—	—	—
Troy Neiman R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.1%	8.5%	2.7%	.287	4.47	19.7%	11.7%	135	-0.07	4.03	199	94
Alejandro Barraza R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	13.2%	8.3%	2.3%	.291	4.64	13.1%	4.7%	93	+0.33	3.27	174	93
Mark Peterson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	11.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.277	4.71	15.9%	5.6%	112	-0.18	4.65	185	92
Robbie Aviles R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	24	SU	4.69	11.5%	8.7%	2.6%	.343	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	58	-1.06	3.63	172	90
Jordan Piche R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	24	SU	4.19	12.3%	6.9%	2.3%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	115	89
Angel Nesbitt R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	24	SU	4.24	14.0%	9.7%	2.0%	.335	3.66	15.4%	8.2%	44	-0.58	3.66	106	88
David Reid-Foley R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	24	SU	4.68	13.8%	8.8%	3.0%	.308	6.54	16.2%	7.6%	33	+1.86	4.68	110	88
John Kuchno R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	24	SU	5.44	8.9%	8.7%	3.6%	.247	5.14	10.2%	1.6%	84	-0.30	2.43	162	88
Raul Fernandez R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	14.2%	9.4%	1.7%	.285	4.79	16.1%	5.0%	103	+0.76	4.03	165	88
Robert Coles R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	24	SU	4.45	9.8%	9.4%	1.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.29	109	87
Gabe Friese R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SU	4.71	10.3%	7.1%	2.9%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	115	87
Jency Solis R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	13.4%	9.8%	1.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.77	116	87
David Berg R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	24	SU	4.57	14.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.41	123	87
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	86
Darin Gillies R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	15.0%	10.8%	1.8%	.270	4.95	22.5%	12.9%	124	+0.73	4.22	295	85
Carlos Torres R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SU	4.10	15.2%	9.0%	2.1%	.315	4.39	15.2%	8.6%	125	+0.29	3.71	187	85
Starling Peralta R 2015 · 4.85 FIP	24	SU	4.85	9.5%	9.0%	2.6%	.203	4.49	9.9%	-0.1%	62	-0.36	4.49	117	85
Nick Neumann R 2015 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	14.7%	7.0%	2.5%	.299	4.30	11.4%	3.9%	62	+0.21	3.68	107	85
Kurt Spomer R 2015 · 5.35 FIP	26	SU	5.35	11.1%	7.3%	4.1%	.268	3.43	14.2%	6.2%	135	-1.92	3.17	199	85
Jesus Barraza R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	9.8%	11.1%	2.3%	.302	3.26	15.3%	8.2%	91	-1.69	3.24	164	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	14.7%	8.8%	1.08	4.90
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79