Eric Martinez
C Wilson Warbirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROKMIL | 122 | .208/.311/.283 | 2 | 2 | 12 | — | .144/.221/.207 |
| 2025 | 21 | ACarolina Mudc… | 34 | .355/.394/.677 | 2 | 0 | 121 | — | .290/.333/.516 |
| 2026 | 22 | AMIL | 22 | .158/.273/.211 | 0 | 1 | -7 | — | .100/.182/.150 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBMIL | 132 | .200/.263/.294 | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ29% MLB | 24 | MLBMIL | 27 | .202/.266/.303 | 0 | 0 | 62 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBMIL | 71 | .205/.269/.312 | 1 | 1 | 65 | 0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 77 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 390 | 246 | 636 | 16 | 280 | 14 | 16 | 316 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 133 | 114 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 272 | 362 | 447 | 809 | 175 | 341 | 23 | 8 | 354 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 157 | 130 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 335 | 377 | 712 | 169 | 247 | 24 | 13 | 322 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Brewers | — | 122 | 106 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 311 | 283 | 594 | 75 | 263 | 23 | 10 | 281 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 34 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 355 | 394 | 677 | 1.071 | 323 | 450 | 29 | 0 | 448 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Wilson Warbirds | — | 22 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 273 | 211 | 483 | 53 | 300 | 41 | 14 | 236 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 77 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 172 | 312 | 188 | 499 | 16 | 200 | 18 | 12 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 133 | 117 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 162 | 246 | 248 | 494 | 85 | 212 | 27 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 157 | 136 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 110 | 219 | 162 | 381 | 51 | 147 | 29 | 10 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 122 | 111 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 144 | 221 | 207 | 429 | 63 | 196 | 33 | 6 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 34 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 333 | 516 | 849 | 226 | 404 | 38 | 0 | 347 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Wilson Warbirds | — | 22 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 150 | 332 | 50 | 267 | 55 | 9 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 77 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 172 | 312 | 188 | 499 | 16 | 220 | 18 | 12 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 77 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 390 | 246 | 636 | 16 | 280 | 14 | 16 | 316 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 133 | 117 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 162 | 246 | 248 | 494 | 85 | 220 | 27 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 133 | 114 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 272 | 362 | 447 | 809 | 175 | 341 | 23 | 8 | 354 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 157 | 136 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 110 | 219 | 162 | 381 | 51 | 152 | 29 | 10 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 157 | 130 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 335 | 377 | 712 | 169 | 247 | 24 | 13 | 322 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 122 | 111 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 144 | 221 | 207 | 429 | 63 | 203 | 33 | 6 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers | — | 122 | 106 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 311 | 283 | 594 | 75 | 263 | 23 | 10 | 281 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 34 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 333 | 516 | 849 | 226 | 444 | 38 | 0 | 347 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 34 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 355 | 394 | 677 | 1.071 | 323 | 450 | 29 | 0 | 448 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Wilson Warbirds | — | 22 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 150 | 332 | 50 | 250 | 55 | 9 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A RAW | Wilson Warbirds | — | 22 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 273 | 211 | 483 | 53 | 300 | 41 | 14 | 236 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 77 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 172 | 312 | 188 | 499 | 16 | 200 | 18 | 12 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 133 | 119 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 160 | 246 | 244 | 490 | 84 | 212 | 27 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 157 | 137 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 219 | 161 | 380 | 51 | 147 | 29 | 10 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 122 | 110 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 145 | 221 | 209 | 430 | 64 | 196 | 33 | 6 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 34 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 281 | 333 | 500 | 833 | 219 | 404 | 38 | 0 | 347 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Wilson Warbirds | — | 22 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 150 | 332 | 50 | 267 | 55 | 9 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 122 | 110 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 145 | 221 | 209 | 430 | 64 | 196 | 33 | 6 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 34 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 281 | 333 | 500 | 833 | 219 | 404 | 38 | 0 | 347 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Wilson Warbirds | — | 22 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 150 | 332 | 50 | 267 | 55 | 9 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIL | 0% | 132 | 121 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 263 | 294 | 557 | 94 | 286 | 32 | 6 | 253 | 58 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIL | 29% | 92 | 85 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 268 | 305 | 573 | 101 | 287 | 32 | 7 | 260 | 62 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIL | 45% | 157 | 144 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 271 | 313 | 585 | 106 | 288 | 31 | 6 | 265 | 65 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIL | 54% | 215 | 195 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 274 | 320 | 594 | 111 | 288 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 68 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIL | 58% | 255 | 232 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 76 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 275 | 322 | 597 | 112 | 287 | 30 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIL | 61% | 283 | 257 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 84 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 276 | 322 | 597 | 111 | 286 | 30 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIL | 62% | 292 | 266 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 273 | 315 | 588 | 108 | 285 | 30 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -12 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIL | 29% | 27 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 266 | 303 | 569 | 101 | 283 | 30 | 7 | 258 | 62 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIL | 45% | 71 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 269 | 312 | 581 | 107 | 283 | 31 | 7 | 263 | 65 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIL | 54% | 116 | 105 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 272 | 319 | 591 | 111 | 283 | 30 | 7 | 267 | 68 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIL | 58% | 149 | 136 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 274 | 320 | 594 | 112 | 283 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 69 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIL | 61% | 172 | 156 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 274 | 320 | 594 | 112 | 282 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 69 | -6 | -0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIL | 62% | 182 | 165 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 55 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 314 | 584 | 108 | 280 | 30 | 7 | 264 | 66 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 717 | 652 | 132 | 20 | 4 | 13 | 50 | 216 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 202 | 269 | 305 | 574 | 103 | 279 | 30 | 7 | 266 | 55 | -28 | +0 | -1 | +13 | +16 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 120 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 45 | 196 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 203 | 269 | 308 | 577 | 105 | 279 | 30 | 7 | 266 | 55 | -25 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1872 | 1689 | 323 | 56 | 11 | 28 | 131 | 560 | 37 | 19 | 8 | 191 | 264 | 287 | 552 | 96 | 266 | 30 | 7 | 249 | 55 | -52 | +0 | -2 | +24 | +29 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 112 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 194 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 191 | 264 | 288 | 552 | 97 | 265 | 30 | 7 | 249 | 55 | -26 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AWilson Warbirds · 22 PAwOBA .231 → .158 (−73)K% 40.9% → 55.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.91% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 55.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | — | 18.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | — | 8.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .231 → .158; ISO .053 → .034; BABIP .300 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 34 PAwOBA .448 → .347 (−102)K% 29.4% → 38.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.41% | ÷1.033 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 4.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷0.948 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 28.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 8.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 3.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.214 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 6.37% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .448 → .347; ISO .323 → .216; BABIP .450 → .404. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Brewers · 122 PAwOBA .275 → .186 (−89)K% 23.0% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.95% | ÷1.002 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.84% | ÷1.014 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 5.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.28% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 17.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.088 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 1.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.947 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.10% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .275 → .186; ISO .075 → .053; BABIP .263 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Brewers 2 · 157 PAwOBA .318 → .183 (−135)K% 24.2% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.20% | ÷1.023 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.38% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 9.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.55% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.30% | ÷1.008 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 10.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.61% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 4.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.125 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.904 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 1.34% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 281, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 125, K 105, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .318 → .183; ISO .169 → .061; BABIP .247 → .147. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Brewers 2 · 133 PAwOBA .350 → .214 (−136)K% 23.3% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.31% | ÷1.051 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.52% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 5.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.51% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.69% | ÷0.999 | ×0.680 | ×0.978 | ×1.008 | 14.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.84% | ÷1.024 | ×0.600 | ×0.978 | ×1.008 | 6.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷0.992 | ×0.600 | ×0.978 | ×1.008 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷1.899 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.90% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 280, 1B 100, 2B 105, 3B 98, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .350 → .214; ISO .175 → .078; BABIP .341 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Brewers 1 · 77 PAwOBA .310 → .225 (−85)K% 14.3% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.954 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.58% | ÷0.986 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 11.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.19% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.680 | ×1.015 | ×1.022 | 18.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.600 | ×1.015 | ×1.022 | 1.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.600 | ×1.015 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 102, 3B 107, K 91, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .310 → .225; ISO .016 → .010; BABIP .280 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).