Adam Smith

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+BOS	29	0	59	5.83	3.94	18.4%	8.6%	—	K 14.2% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.65
2025	25	MIX2 levels	32	3	75	3.35	3.13	24.4%	9.4%	—	K 18.6% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.93
2026	26	MIX2 levels	33	1	55	3.25	3.48	21.7%	6.4%	—	K 17.1% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.28
2027PROJ	27	MLBSEA	67	0	70	4.87	4.87	16.6%	9.4%	-0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBSEA	25	0	26	4.86	4.90	17.1%	9.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBSEA	34	0	36	4.92	4.99	17.3%	9.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Tyler Walker (age 28) · Ryan Doolittle (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%16.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%7.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	7	4	14	62	15	3	3	57%	2.0	16.5%	6.0%	10.4%	6.8%	6.28	6.20	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	7	4	14	62	15	3	3	57%	2.0	24.2%	4.8%	19.4%	4.8%	6.28	4.36	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	2	2	5	19	5	2	0	100%	2.5	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	0.0%	1.80	2.21	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	2	2	5	19	5	2	0	100%	2.5	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	0.0%	1.80	2.30	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	30	0	42	192	35	21	3	0%	1.4	14.0%	12.6%	1.5%	2.3%	5.83	4.77	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	30	0	42	192	35	21	3	0%	1.4	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	1.6%	5.83	3.87	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	29	0	59	266	49	23	6	0%	2.0	14.2%	9.9%	4.2%	2.7%	5.83	4.65	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	29	0	59	266	49	23	6	0%	2.0	14.2%	9.9%	4.2%	2.7%	5.83	4.65	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	29	0	59	266	49	23	6	0%	2.0	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.3%	5.83	3.94	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	3	75	307	75	29	5	9%	2.4	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	1.9%	3.35	3.93	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	3	75	307	75	29	5	9%	2.4	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	1.9%	3.35	3.93	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	3	75	307	75	29	5	9%	2.4	24.4%	9.4%	15.0%	1.6%	3.35	3.13	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	55	235	51	15	6	3%	1.7	17.1%	7.1%	9.9%	3.1%	3.25	4.28	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	55	235	51	15	6	3%	1.7	17.1%	7.1%	9.9%	3.1%	3.25	4.28	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	55	235	51	15	6	3%	1.7	21.7%	6.4%	15.3%	2.6%	3.25	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SEA	67	0	70	296	49	28	9	0%	1.0	16.6%	9.4%	7.1%	2.9%	4.87	4.87	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	65	0	68	287	49	27	9	0%	1.0	17.1%	9.6%	7.6%	3.0%	4.86	4.90	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	62	0	65	274	47	27	9	0%	1.0	17.3%	9.8%	7.6%	3.2%	4.92	4.99	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	25	0	26	110	19	10	3	0%	1.0	17.1%	9.6%	7.6%	3.0%	4.86	4.90	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	34	0	36	152	26	15	5	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.8%	7.6%	3.2%	4.92	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	260	45	25	8	0%	1.0	17.2%	9.7%	7.6%	3.1%	4.90	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	81	26	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.7%	7.6%	3.1%	4.90	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		133	10	250	1081	177	106	29	8%	1.9	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	2.7%	4.46	4.43	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	8	200	864	141	85	23	8%	1.9	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	2.7%	4.46	4.43	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	16.6%	9.4%	2.9%	—	4.94	17.2%	7.6%	133	+0.07	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	88
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	87
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	86
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	86
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	85
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	85
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	85
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	85
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	84
Brian Bass R 2009 · 4.70 FIP	27	SU	4.70	13.5%	9.8%	2.8%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	176	84
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	84
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	84
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	83
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	83
Scot Shields R 2002 · 4.27 FIP	27	SU	4.27	16.0%	10.6%	2.1%	.201	3.01	22.1%	15.0%	345	-1.26	2.77	686	83
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	83
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	83
Junior Lopez R 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	15.7%	9.9%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	128	83
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	83
Saul Rivera R 2006 · 3.83 FIP	28	SU	3.83	14.8%	9.4%	1.4%	.267	3.47	15.9%	7.3%	215	-0.36	3.09	276	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	17.0%	9.6%	1.17	4.88
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*