Tyler Samaniego
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8998vR 108
ERA3.86
FIP3.86
K%21.6%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p2718.9%
xwOBA vs
p340.331
SL+1.4 (19%)
FB+0.7 (67%)
SI (41%)
CH (6%)
CT (8%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 5 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 53.6% | 7.1% | 46.4% | 3.6% | 1.29 | 1.44 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 5 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 53.6% | 7.1% | 46.4% | 3.6% | 1.29 | 1.53 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 48 | 184 | 47 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 1.1% | 2.45 | 3.41 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 48 | 184 | 47 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.5% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 1.1% | 2.45 | 2.81 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 41 | 1 | 47 | 208 | 54 | 23 | 2 | 2% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 1.0% | 5.51 | 3.39 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 41 | 1 | 47 | 208 | 54 | 23 | 2 | 2% | 1.2 | 26.0% | 11.1% | 14.9% | 1.0% | 5.51 | 2.83 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | 13 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 3.57 | 3.65 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | 13 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.2% | 9.0% | 19.2% | 1.3% | 3.57 | 2.53 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 30 | 1 | 38 | 158 | 44 | 11 | 3 | 3% | 1.3 | 22.9% | 6.2% | 16.7% | 1.4% | 3.99 | 2.75 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 30 | 1 | 38 | 158 | 44 | 11 | 3 | 3% | 1.3 | 27.8% | 7.0% | 20.9% | 1.9% | 3.99 | 2.68 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 33 | 1 | 38 | 172 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 3% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 4.03 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.86 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.86 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 58 | 255 | 53 | 23 | 6 | — | — | 20.8% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 3.97 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 40 | 169 | 53 | 23 | 6 | — | — | 31.3% | 13.8% | 17.6% | 3.7% | 5.73 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 53 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 47 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 51 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 188 | 1 | 196 | 833 | 178 | 75 | 22 | 1% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.07 | 3.88 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 1 | 200 | 849 | 181 | 76 | 22 | 1% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.07 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 160 | 3 | 196 | 828 | 183 | 82 | 13 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 1.6% | 3.86 | 3.37 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 163 | 3 | 200 | 845 | 186 | 83 | 14 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 1.6% | 3.86 | 3.37 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Samaniego (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.15 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.35 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 165 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 85 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.31 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.85 | 3.46 | 154 | 84 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 81 |
| Cade Gibson L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.17 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .255 | 2.60 | 22.6% | 16.2% | 44 | -0.57 | 2.60 | 317 | 81 |
| Ian Krol L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.56 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .347 | 3.76 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 90 | +0.20 | 2.72 | 344 | 81 |
| Dan Jennings L 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.09 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 1.2% | .294 | 3.85 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 188 | +0.76 | 3.09 | 244 | 80 |
| Bennett Sousa L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .290 | 2.90 | 29.7% | 21.5% | 70 | -1.09 | 2.59 | 250 | 80 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 80 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.23 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.49 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 97 | +1.26 | 2.55 | 261 | 80 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.32 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.2% | .368 | 3.66 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.34 | 3.04 | 153 | 80 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.33 | 19.0% | 9.3% | 1.2% | .305 | 4.87 | 17.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +1.54 | 3.33 | 228 | 79 |
| Jeff Malm L 2024 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 101 | 79 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 79 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .197 | 4.72 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.75 | 3.97 | 133 | 79 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 34 | -0.35 | 2.34 | 338 | 79 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 79 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 78 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.65 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 308 | 78 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.80 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .242 | 4.68 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 109 | +0.88 | 3.80 | 172 | 78 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.09 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 1.1% | .303 | 3.22 | 23.4% | 17.6% | 95 | +0.13 | 2.59 | 183 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 1.08 | 4.26 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |