Tyler Samaniego — OGILVIE

Tyler Samaniego P Worcester Red Sox

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 106

ERA3.81

FIP3.81

K%21.3%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—50

CTRL—55

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

SL+1.4 (19%)

FB+0.7 (68%)

SI (41%)

CH (6%)

CT (8%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	5	0	7	28	15	2	1	0%	1.4	53.6%	7.1%	46.4%	3.6%	1.29	1.44	—
2021	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	5	0	7	28	15	2	1	0%	1.4	53.6%	7.1%	46.4%	3.6%	1.29	1.53	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	184	47	18	2	0%	1.3	20.2%	11.0%	9.1%	1.2%	2.45	3.45	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	48	184	47	18	2	0%	1.3	25.5%	9.8%	15.8%	1.1%	2.45	2.81	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	41	1	47	208	54	23	2	2%	1.2	21.0%	12.2%	8.9%	1.0%	5.51	3.44	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	41	1	47	208	54	23	2	2%	1.2	21.0%	12.2%	8.9%	1.0%	5.51	3.44	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	41	1	47	208	54	23	2	2%	1.2	26.0%	11.1%	14.9%	1.0%	5.51	2.83	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	13	0	18	78	22	7	1	0%	1.4	22.8%	9.9%	13.0%	1.8%	3.57	3.42	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	13	0	18	78	22	7	1	0%	1.4	22.8%	9.9%	13.0%	1.8%	3.57	3.42	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	13	0	18	78	22	7	1	0%	1.4	28.2%	9.0%	19.2%	1.3%	3.57	2.53	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	1	38	158	44	11	3	3%	1.3	22.9%	6.2%	16.7%	1.3%	3.99	2.65	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	1	38	158	44	11	3	3%	1.3	22.9%	6.2%	16.7%	1.3%	3.99	2.65	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	30	1	38	158	44	11	3	3%	1.3	27.8%	7.0%	20.9%	1.9%	3.99	2.68	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	1	20	90	17	8	1	5%	1.0	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	1.1%	2.66	3.25	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	48	1	56	249	51	22	6	2%	1.2	18.2%	8.3%	9.9%	2.6%	3.70	4.05	+0.3
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	48	1	56	249	51	22	6	2%	1.2	18.2%	8.3%	9.9%	2.6%	3.70	4.05	+0.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	BOS	28	0	36	159	34	14	5	0%	1.3	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	3.1%	4.29	4.14	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	BOS	20	1	20	90	17	8	1	5%	1.0	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	1.1%	2.66	3.24	+0.3
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	BOS	20	1	20	90	17	8	1	5%	1.0	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	1.1%	2.66	3.24	+0.3
ROS	27	MLB MLE	BOS	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.7%	3.81	3.81	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	BOS	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.7%	3.81	3.81	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	61	270	56	24	7	—	—	20.5%	8.8%	11.8%	2.4%	3.71	4.03	+0.4
FULL	27	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	25	107	56	24	7	—	—	51.9%	22.2%	29.7%	6.1%	8.92	4.90	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55	0	58	244	53	21	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	2.6%	4.11	4.15	+0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	52	0	55	233	50	20	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.8%	12.9%	2.8%	4.22	4.29	+0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	52	0	55	232	51	20	6	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	2.6%	4.11	4.15	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	50	0	52	220	48	19	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.8%	12.9%	2.8%	4.22	4.29	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	1	133	564	120	49	14	1%	1.0	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	2.4%	3.92	3.74	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	2	200	851	181	74	21	1%	1.0	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	2.4%	3.92	3.74	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		175	3	214	905	195	86	15	2%	1.2	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	1.7%	3.79	3.41	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		164	3	200	846	182	80	14	2%	1.2	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	1.7%	3.79	3.41	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Samaniego (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.08	22.7%	8.1%	2.7%	—	4.22	21.8%	13.1%	113	+0.14	—	—	—
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	86
Fabian Williamson L 2016 · 3.39 FIP	27	SU	3.39	23.8%	9.0%	2.1%	.259	5.26	16.5%	-3.3%	54	+1.87	3.39	154	84
Dan Jennings L 2015 · 3.11 FIP	28	SU	3.11	18.9%	7.4%	1.2%	.294	3.80	17.8%	8.5%	188	+0.69	3.11	244	81
Jason Gurka L 2015 · 3.15 FIP	27	SU	3.15	17.5%	7.0%	1.2%	.303	3.25	23.4%	17.6%	95	+0.10	2.82	183	80
James Pazos L 2018 · 3.21 FIP	27	SU	3.21	21.3%	6.6%	1.9%	.291	4.60	20.6%	9.4%	97	+1.39	2.55	261	80
Bennett Sousa L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.2%	9.7%	2.9%	.290	2.90	29.2%	21.4%	70	-1.29	2.59	275	80
Jake Palisch L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	21.0%	8.2%	3.4%	.304	4.64	11.2%	3.0%	274	+0.44	3.88	317	80
Kevin Chapman L 2015 · 3.36 FIP	27	SU	3.36	21.9%	11.1%	1.3%	.368	3.63	21.7%	11.5%	100	+0.27	3.01	153	80
Jeff Malm L 2016 · 3.13 FIP	25	SU	3.13	22.0%	7.2%	1.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	101	80
Keith Hessler L 2016 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	19.0%	9.3%	1.1%	.305	5.06	17.8%	5.2%	98	+1.75	3.31	228	79
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	79
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	79
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	79
Jordan Mills L 2019 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	23.2%	9.3%	1.8%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	210	79
Matt Purke L 2017 · 3.01 FIP	27	SU	3.01	25.1%	10.1%	1.4%	.335	4.29	16.1%	0.1%	47	+1.28	3.01	226	78
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	78
Gabriel Sequeira L 2023 · 3.19 FIP	25	SU	3.19	21.0%	8.8%	1.4%	.276	4.92	23.0%	2.4%	14	+1.73	2.62	160	78
Colton Turner L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	27	SU	3.27	21.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.235	4.23	22.4%	13.2%	94	+0.96	2.79	325	78
Zac Rosscup L 2015 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	24.6%	11.0%	4.4%	.296	2.85	29.5%	21.7%	40	-1.99	2.56	160	78
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	22.1%	8.5%	1.04	4.14
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79