Tyler Samaniego
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.2
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.12
FIP4.12
xFIP3.80
SIERA3.96
K%23.1%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%14.3%
IP22
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
OFP—45
STUF—50
CTRL—55
K†5555
SL+1.4 (19%)
FB+0.7 (64%)
SI (44%)
CH (7%)
CT (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 5 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 15 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.29 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 38 | 0 | 48 | 184 | 47 | 18 | 2 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 1.2% | 2.45 | 3.43 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 41 | 1 | 47 | 208 | 54 | 23 | 2 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 1.1% | 5.51 | 3.44 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | 13 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 1.7% | 3.57 | 3.37 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Altoona Curve | 30 | 1 | 38 | 158 | 44 | 11 | 3 | 22.9% | 6.2% | 1.2% | 3.99 | 2.63 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 18 | — | 18 | 77 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 27 | 114 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 3.40 | 2.74 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 22 | — | 22 | 92 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 133 | 2 | 167 | 693 | 157 | 70 | 10 | 22.6% | 10.1% | 1.4% | 3.72 | 3.24 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 2 | 200 | 830 | 188 | 84 | 12 | 22.6% | 10.1% | 1.4% | 3.72 | 3.24 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Samaniego (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.09 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.14 | 23.1% | 14.4% | 22 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 85 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.26 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.84 | 3.42 | 154 | 80 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 79 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 78 |
| Boone Logan L 2029 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 78 |
| Jeff Malm L 2024 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.14 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 101 | 78 |
| Bennett Sousa L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.23 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.90 | 29.7% | 21.5% | 70 | -1.33 | 2.59 | 250 | 78 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 77 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 1.4% | .367 | 4.35 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 95 | +1.06 | 3.29 | 180 | 77 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 77 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.09 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 1.7% | .291 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 97 | +1.47 | 2.55 | 261 | 76 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 0.8% | .292 | 3.73 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.57 | 2.70 | 175 | 76 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.07 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .336 | 3.58 | 25.2% | 16.4% | 44 | -0.49 | 1.84 | 238 | 76 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 76 |
| Jorge Ibarra L 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.97 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 0.9% | .407 | 2.79 | 21.0% | 14.5% | 99 | -0.18 | 2.56 | 146 | 75 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 271 | 75 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.31 | 16.3% | 6.2% | 1.5% | .250 | 3.54 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 95 | +0.23 | 3.24 | 163 | 75 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.09 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.75 | 3.09 | 145 | 74 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 74 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 128 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.