Tyler Samaniego

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAPIT	13	0	18	3.57	2.53	28.2%	9.0%	—	K 22.8% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.42
2025	26	MIX4 levels	30	1	38	3.99	2.68	27.8%	7.0%	—	K 22.9% · BB 6.2% · FIP 2.65
2026	27	MIX2 levels	50	1	58	3.88	3.79	20.1%	8.5%	0.5	K 18.2% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.95
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	45	0	47	4.29	4.33	19.1%	7.8%	0.1
2028PROJ78% MLB	29	MLBBOS	38	0	40	4.41	4.49	18.9%	8.2%	0.0
2029PROJ84% MLB	30	MLBBOS	34	0	36	4.57	4.68	18.6%	8.5%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo37

xwOBA vs30

K%27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsAdam Liberatore (age 28) · Jeff Ibarra (age 28) · Colt Hynes (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.29

FIP4.33

K%19.1%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	5	0	7	28	15	2	1	0%	1.4	53.6%	7.1%	46.4%	3.6%	1.29	1.44	—
2021	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	5	0	7	28	15	2	1	0%	1.4	53.6%	7.1%	46.4%	3.6%	1.29	1.53	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	184	47	18	2	0%	1.3	20.2%	11.0%	9.1%	1.2%	2.45	3.45	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	48	184	47	18	2	0%	1.3	25.5%	9.8%	15.8%	1.1%	2.45	2.81	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	41	1	47	208	54	23	2	2%	1.2	21.0%	12.2%	8.9%	1.0%	5.51	3.44	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	41	1	47	208	54	23	2	2%	1.2	26.0%	11.1%	14.9%	1.0%	5.51	2.83	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	13	0	18	78	22	7	1	0%	1.4	22.8%	9.9%	13.0%	1.8%	3.57	3.42	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	13	0	18	78	22	7	1	0%	1.4	22.8%	9.9%	13.0%	1.8%	3.57	3.42	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	13	0	18	78	22	7	1	0%	1.4	28.2%	9.0%	19.2%	1.3%	3.57	2.53	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	1	38	158	44	11	3	3%	1.3	22.9%	6.2%	16.7%	1.3%	3.99	2.65	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	1	38	158	44	11	3	3%	1.3	22.9%	6.2%	16.7%	1.3%	3.99	2.65	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	30	1	38	158	44	11	3	3%	1.3	27.8%	7.0%	20.9%	1.9%	3.99	2.68	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	58	259	52	22	6	2%	1.2	18.2%	8.0%	10.2%	2.5%	3.88	3.95	+0.4
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	58	259	52	22	6	2%	1.2	18.2%	8.0%	10.2%	2.5%	3.88	3.95	+0.4
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	58	259	52	22	6	2%	1.2	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	2.3%	3.88	3.79	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	1	20	90	17	8	1	5%	1.0	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	1.1%	2.66	3.25	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BOS	45	0	47	198	38	15	5	0%	1.0	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	2.7%	4.29	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	49	0	51	216	41	18	6	0%	1.0	18.9%	8.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.41	4.49	+0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	41	0	43	180	33	15	6	0%	1.0	18.6%	8.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.57	4.68	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	38	0	40	169	32	14	5	0%	1.1	18.9%	8.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.41	4.49	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	34	0	36	152	28	13	5	0%	1.1	18.6%	8.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.57	4.68	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	1	96	410	77	35	10	1%	1.0	18.8%	8.5%	10.3%	2.6%	4.10	3.99	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	2	200	853	160	73	21	1%	1.0	18.8%	8.5%	10.3%	2.6%	4.10	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		177	3	216	915	197	86	15	2%	1.2	21.5%	9.4%	12.2%	1.7%	3.83	3.39	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		164	3	200	847	182	79	14	2%	1.2	21.5%	9.4%	12.2%	1.7%	3.83	3.39	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 38 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.33 (+0.30)K% 20.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.71%	—	×0.860	17.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.28%	—	×0.900	7.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.96%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.25%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 26 IPFIP 1.94 → 2.65 (+0.71)K% 28.3% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.30%	—	×0.810	22.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.66%	—	×1.100	6.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.94%	÷0.891	×1.200	1.27%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 1.94 → 2.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 7 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.27 (+0.62)K% 21.4% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.770	16.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.150	12.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.048	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 18 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.42 (+0.86)K% 28.2% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.21%	—	×0.810	22.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.97%	—	×1.100	9.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷0.844	×1.200	1.82%

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAltoona Curve · 47 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.44 (+0.60)K% 26.0% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.96%	—	×0.810	21.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.06%	—	×1.100	12.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷1.106	×1.200	1.04%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAltoona Curve · 31 IPFIP 3.25 → 3.75 (+0.51)K% 19.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.83%	—	×0.810	16.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.100	7.59%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.084	×1.200	1.91%

Result: FIP 3.25 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 17 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.95 (+0.96)K% 35.3% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.29%	—	×0.770	27.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.71%	—	×1.150	16.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.273	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ABradenton Marauders · 7 IPFIP 1.44 → 2.78 (+1.34)K% 53.6% → 39.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	53.57%	—	×0.740	39.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.180	8.43%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.302	×1.300	3.57%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 160).

Result: FIP 1.44 → 2.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Samaniego (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.58	18.8%	10.4%	94	+0.25	—	—	—
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	82
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	82
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	80
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	79
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	79
Chad Zerbe L 2001 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	13.6%	6.2%	1.8%	.299	3.88	9.4%	2.6%	106	+0.13	3.75	145	78
Jack Taschner L 2006 · 4.90 FIP	28	SU	4.90	14.9%	6.9%	4.0%	.360	4.08	18.6%	7.2%	127	-0.82	3.14	189	78
Jesse Carlson L 2009 · 3.72 FIP	28	SU	3.72	17.5%	6.2%	2.4%	.279	5.39	13.6%	8.5%	14	+1.67	3.28	141	78
Jose Meraz L 2016 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	14.2%	6.8%	1.8%	.286	4.03	13.0%	1.5%	52	+0.25	3.78	110	78
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	77
Kelly Wunsch L 2000 · 3.65 FIP	28	SU	3.65	19.7%	10.8%	1.5%	.261	4.17	17.6%	5.9%	90	+0.52	3.36	175	77
Jeremy Bleich L 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	14.3%	6.3%	1.2%	.291	3.67	16.5%	10.2%	155	+0.35	3.20	241	77
Doug Slaten L 2008 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	13.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.264	3.63	19.2%	10.2%	57	-0.93	3.22	139	77
David Purcey L 2010 · 3.60 FIP	28	SU	3.60	22.4%	9.8%	2.1%	.245	4.29	16.7%	2.7%	59	+0.69	3.60	206	76
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	76
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	75
Tom Martin L 2000 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	14.7%	9.1%	2.1%	.274	4.29	21.8%	12.3%	68	+0.12	3.40	303	75
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	74
Luis Perez L 2012 · 3.32 FIP	27	SU	3.32	22.3%	9.1%	1.7%	.299	4.00	15.2%	2.6%	66	+0.68	3.32	173	74
Ray King L 2002 · 3.39 FIP	28	SU	3.39	18.3%	6.6%	1.8%	.280	3.63	15.8%	6.1%	161	+0.24	3.18	405	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	45	18.9%	8.2%	1.02	4.21
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Blaine Hardy ('21)	1.5	48	18.5%	8.3%	0.99	3.78
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*