Conner Whittaker
P
Lynchburg Hillcats
+0.5
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 184 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.7 · 2030
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.7%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%11.3%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2030
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 35 | 1 | 85 | 336 | 55 | 19 | 3 | 12.2% | 6.6% | 1.0% | 2.66 | 3.46 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 70 | 30 | 9 | 19.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 90 | 35 | 11 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.21 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 116 | 490 | 104 | 39 | 13 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.15 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 111 | 41 | 14 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.13 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 23 | 126 | 533 | 114 | 42 | 14 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 23 | 126 | 533 | 114 | 42 | 15 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.17 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 124 | 521 | 111 | 42 | 14 | 21.3% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.22 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 120 | 506 | 107 | 41 | 14 | 21.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 116 | 488 | 102 | 40 | 14 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 111 | 469 | 96 | 39 | 14 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 91 | 38 | 14 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 85 | 37 | 13 | 19.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 17 | 95 | 401 | 78 | 36 | 13 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.77 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 71 | 35 | 13 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.90 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 35 | 1 | 85 | 336 | 41 | 22 | 3 | 12.2% | 6.6% | 1.0% | 2.66 | 3.46 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 2 | 200 | 794 | 97 | 52 | 7 | 12.2% | 6.6% | 1.0% | 2.66 | 3.46 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Conner Whittaker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 19.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.16 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 342 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 95 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 95 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 94 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 94 |
| Nick Dean R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.99 | 21.6% | 13.8% | 65 | +0.16 | 3.83 | 155 | 93 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.06 | 15.9% | 4.9% | 91 | +0.11 | 3.95 | 193 | 93 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 93 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 92 |
| Daniel Blair R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 92 |
| Connor Johnstone R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.7% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .272 | 4.53 | 12.9% | 7.9% | 166 | +0.13 | 3.81 | 319 | 92 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 92 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 91 |
| Juan Grijalva R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 14.2% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .271 | 5.68 | 11.9% | 2.7% | 24 | +1.30 | 4.38 | 110 | 91 |
| Brandon Birdsell R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.91 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.11 | 19.9% | 13.7% | 154 | +0.20 | 3.91 | 262 | 91 |
| Tyler Wehrle R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.43 | 15.1% | 3.4% | 60 | +1.35 | 4.08 | 141 | 91 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.91 | 15.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .310 | 4.27 | 16.4% | 9.0% | 226 | +0.36 | 3.91 | 320 | 91 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 91 |
| Joey Mancini R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.39 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 221 | +0.21 | 3.65 | 316 | 91 |
| Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 90 |
| Matt Peacock R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.17 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.93 | 354 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.4 | $14M | +$12M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.2 | $12M | +$9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.1 | $11M | +$8M |
| Totals | $11M | $82M | +$71M | ||