Jarod Wright prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jarod Wright P South Bend Cubs

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%20.3%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	0	53	214	50	17	7	0%	2.0	17.3%	9.4%	7.9%	4.4%	3.59	5.22	—
2021	24	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	0	53	214	50	17	7	0%	2.0	23.4%	7.9%	15.4%	3.3%	3.59	3.90	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	71	323	50	40	9	0%	2.4	12.7%	13.2%	-0.5%	3.7%	5.22	5.73	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	71	323	50	40	9	0%	2.4	15.5%	12.4%	3.1%	2.8%	5.22	5.04	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	28	0	53	221	38	18	5	0%	1.9	13.2%	9.4%	3.9%	2.4%	4.10	4.46	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	28	0	53	221	38	18	5	0%	1.9	13.2%	9.4%	3.9%	2.4%	4.10	4.46	—
2023	26	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	28	0	53	221	38	18	5	0%	1.9	17.2%	8.1%	9.0%	2.3%	4.10	3.92	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.3%	9.3%	11.0%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CHC	32	0	34	143	29	14	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.6%	10.7%	3.2%	4.66	4.73	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	CHC	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.6%	10.7%	3.2%	4.66	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	9	4	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.6%	10.7%	3.2%	4.66	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	78	19	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.6%	10.7%	3.2%	4.66	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		84	0	176	758	107	83	26	0%	2.1	14.1%	11.0%	3.1%	3.5%	4.40	5.22	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	0	200	861	122	95	30	0%	2.1	14.1%	11.0%	3.1%	3.5%	4.40	5.22	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jarod Wright (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	20.3%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.73	20.2%	10.7%	34	+0.15	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	86
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	84
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	82
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	81
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	81
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	79
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	78
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	78
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	78
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	78
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	78
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	78
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	77
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	35	20.3%	9.4%	1.19	4.62
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98