Oscar Rayo

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+KC	25	7	85	2.13	2.24	23.1%	5.6%	—	K 17.8% · BB 6.5% · FIP 2.84
2025	23	AANorthwest Ark…	35	3	88	3.70	3.77	18.4%	9.3%	—	K 14.9% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.32
2026	24	MIX2 levels	28	1	61	3.69	3.89	23.2%	6.1%	—	K 19.0% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.68
2027PROJ	25	MLBKC	67	0	70	4.94	4.94	15.6%	9.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBKC	33	0	35	4.85	4.83	16.9%	8.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBKC	47	0	49	4.83	4.83	17.4%	9.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsMatt Crouse (age 25) · Luis Perez (age 26) · Stephen Peterson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%15.6%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%6.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	9	3	21	82	25	3	1	33%	2.3	20.7%	4.6%	16.2%	1.7%	3.92	2.86	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	9	3	21	82	25	3	1	33%	2.3	30.5%	3.7%	26.8%	1.2%	3.92	1.75	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	5	44	177	50	9	4	36%	3.1	19.9%	6.1%	13.8%	2.6%	2.25	3.61	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	5	44	177	50	9	4	36%	3.1	28.2%	5.1%	23.2%	2.3%	2.25	2.62	—
2023	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	6	71	289	66	12	1	26%	3.1	16.9%	4.9%	12.0%	0.4%	3.15	2.52	—
2023	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	6	71	289	66	12	1	26%	3.1	22.8%	4.2%	18.7%	0.3%	3.15	1.94	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	7	85	337	78	19	2	28%	3.4	17.8%	6.5%	11.3%	0.8%	2.13	2.84	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	7	85	337	78	19	2	28%	3.4	17.8%	6.5%	11.3%	0.8%	2.13	2.84	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	7	85	337	78	19	2	28%	3.4	23.1%	5.6%	17.5%	0.6%	2.13	2.24	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	35	3	88	364	67	34	7	9%	2.5	14.9%	10.3%	4.6%	2.1%	3.70	4.32	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	35	3	88	364	67	34	7	9%	2.5	14.9%	10.3%	4.6%	2.1%	3.70	4.32	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	35	3	88	364	67	34	7	9%	2.5	18.4%	9.3%	9.1%	1.9%	3.70	3.77	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	61	246	57	15	9	4%	2.2	19.0%	6.1%	12.9%	4.4%	3.69	4.68	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	61	246	57	15	9	4%	2.2	19.0%	6.1%	12.9%	4.4%	3.69	4.68	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	1	61	246	57	15	9	4%	2.2	23.2%	6.1%	17.1%	3.7%	3.69	3.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	KC	67	0	70	296	46	26	9	0%	1.0	15.6%	9.0%	6.7%	3.0%	4.94	4.94	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	75	0	79	333	56	30	10	0%	1.1	16.9%	8.9%	8.0%	3.0%	4.85	4.83	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	74	0	78	328	57	30	10	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.0%	8.3%	3.1%	4.83	4.83	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	72	0	75	318	56	29	10	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.2%	8.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.89	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	69	0	72	304	53	29	10	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.4%	8.0%	3.3%	4.94	5.01	-0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	64	0	68	286	49	28	10	0%	1.1	17.1%	9.7%	7.4%	3.5%	5.09	5.18	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	33	0	35	148	25	13	4	0%	1.1	16.9%	8.9%	8.0%	3.0%	4.85	4.83	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	47	0	49	207	36	19	6	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.0%	8.3%	3.1%	4.83	4.83	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	54	0	57	241	42	22	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.2%	8.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.89	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	56	0	59	249	43	23	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.4%	8.0%	3.3%	4.94	5.01	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	55	0	58	245	42	24	9	0%	1.1	17.1%	9.7%	7.4%	3.5%	5.09	5.18	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		245	0	258	1088	188	101	35	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.3%	8.0%	3.2%	4.92	4.58	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	78	27	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.3%	8.0%	3.2%	4.92	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		134	25	369	1495	262	103	28	19%	2.8	17.5%	6.9%	10.6%	1.9%	3.07	3.53	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	14	200	810	142	56	15	19%	2.8	17.5%	6.9%	10.6%	1.9%	3.07	3.53	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Oscar Rayo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	15.6%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.85	17.3%	8.2%	232	-0.09	—	—	—
Matt Crouse L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	12.0%	6.3%	2.0%	.276	4.40	12.2%	4.3%	268	+0.41	3.99	342	85
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	84
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	82
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	80
Michael Heesch L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	25	SU	3.79	14.0%	10.3%	1.1%	.284	4.56	11.1%	2.8%	44	+0.77	3.79	109	79
Williams Jerez L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	17.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.294	3.81	24.0%	15.1%	127	-0.24	3.58	364	78
Jose Molina L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	14.4%	8.9%	2.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	144	78
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	78
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	78
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	78
Nolan Becker L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SU	4.17	13.9%	7.5%	2.4%	.313	5.41	18.9%	14.6%	13	+1.24	3.71	105	78
Hayden Howard L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	25	SU	3.76	17.5%	8.4%	1.9%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	200	77
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	77
Robby Scott L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	17.3%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	3.64	23.3%	15.8%	162	-0.42	2.39	285	77
Duane Below L 2011 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	11.0%	7.1%	1.6%	.255	4.16	15.3%	11.1%	46	+0.19	3.63	265	77
Juan Martinez L 2017 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	13.3%	8.1%	1.5%	.303	4.79	15.3%	3.7%	95	+0.95	3.41	273	77
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	77
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	77
Cody Stull L 2017 · 4.73 FIP	25	SU	4.73	11.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.310	3.16	16.7%	8.1%	81	-1.57	2.57	264	76
Brian Duensing L 2009 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	14.8%	8.4%	1.9%	.286	3.90	15.2%	9.3%	401	-0.08	2.57	799	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	74	17.0%	9.2%	1.22	4.91
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*