Brett Kerry

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 213 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2029

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	27	22	151	4.54	4.19	23.9%	5.9%	—	K 19.9% · BB 5.8% · FIP 5.10
2025	26	MIX2 levels	25	23	116	7.60	5.76	17.1%	8.8%	—	K 14.2% · BB 7.4% · FIP 6.20
2026	27	MIX2 levels	29	23	133	6.72	4.97	17.7%	8.4%	-0.1	K 15.5% · BB 7.6% · FIP 5.07
2027PROJ	28	MLBLAA	15	15	88	5.08	5.59	14.0%	7.9%	-0.7
2028PROJ61% MLB	29	MLBLAA	8	8	51	5.35	5.61	14.2%	8.1%	-0.4
2029PROJ72% MLB	30	MLBLAA	10	10	57	5.37	5.45	16.1%	7.6%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

Whiff%59

K%50

FB Velo10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsTravis Smith (age 29) · Kohei Arihara (age 28) · Clay Condrey (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.08

FIP5.59

K%14.0%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP88

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p5022.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.270

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	14	53	19	5	0	100%	2.9	35.8%	9.4%	26.4%	0.0%	1.26	1.27	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	14	53	19	5	0	100%	2.9	35.8%	9.4%	26.4%	0.0%	1.26	1.50	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	25	20	103	438	118	30	19	80%	4.1	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	4.6%	4.46	4.74	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	25	20	103	438	118	30	19	80%	4.1	26.9%	6.8%	20.1%	4.3%	4.46	4.08	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	135	574	122	48	27	85%	5.0	17.4%	8.9%	8.5%	5.7%	4.60	5.90	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	135	574	122	48	27	85%	5.0	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	4.7%	4.60	4.96	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	151	624	149	37	27	81%	5.6	19.9%	5.8%	14.0%	5.4%	4.54	5.10	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	151	624	149	37	27	81%	5.6	19.9%	5.8%	14.0%	5.4%	4.54	5.10	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	22	151	624	149	37	27	81%	5.6	23.9%	5.9%	17.9%	4.3%	4.54	4.19	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	525	90	46	27	92%	4.6	14.2%	7.4%	6.9%	6.1%	7.60	6.20	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	525	90	46	27	92%	4.6	14.2%	7.4%	6.9%	6.1%	7.60	6.20	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	116	525	90	46	27	92%	4.6	17.1%	8.8%	8.4%	5.1%	7.60	5.76	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	133	622	110	52	24	79%	4.6	15.5%	7.6%	7.9%	4.2%	6.72	5.07	-0.3
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	133	622	110	52	24	79%	4.6	15.5%	7.6%	7.9%	4.2%	6.72	5.07	-0.3
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	23	133	622	110	52	24	79%	4.6	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	3.9%	6.72	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	14	54	12	2	1	0%	4.6	22.2%	3.7%	18.5%	1.9%	3.95	2.73	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	LAA	15	15	88	372	52	29	15	100%	5.9	14.0%	7.9%	6.1%	4.2%	5.08	5.59	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	84	355	50	29	15	100%	6.0	14.2%	8.1%	6.1%	4.2%	5.35	5.61	-0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	79	334	54	25	14	100%	6.1	16.1%	7.6%	8.5%	4.3%	5.37	5.45	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	51	215	31	17	9	100%	6.4	14.2%	8.1%	6.1%	4.2%	5.35	5.61	-0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	57	241	39	18	10	100%	5.7	16.1%	7.6%	8.5%	4.3%	5.37	5.45	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	18	121	509	81	38	20	86%	5.8	15.9%	7.4%	8.6%	4.0%	5.20	4.89	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	30	200	838	134	63	33	86%	5.8	15.9%	7.4%	8.6%	4.0%	5.20	4.89	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		138	116	652	2836	509	211	145	84%	4.7	18.0%	7.4%	10.5%	5.1%	5.46	5.33	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	36	200	870	156	65	44	84%	4.7	18.0%	7.4%	10.5%	5.1%	5.46	5.33	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brett Kerry (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	14.0%	7.9%	4.2%	—	5.53	15.1%	7.3%	163	-0.06	—	—	—
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	82
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	79
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	77
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	76
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	74
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	71
Greg Reynolds R 2013 · 4.66 FIP	28	SP	4.66	9.8%	3.8%	3.5%	.300	5.97	3.8%	-3.5%	25	+1.31	4.66	148	70
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	69
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	69
Joe Roa R 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SP-	4.60	11.7%	3.7%	3.7%	.278	4.47	15.5%	9.3%	121	-0.13	4.28	258	68
Dustin Beggs R 2021 · 5.09 FIP	28	SP-	5.09	11.3%	7.7%	3.6%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	407	67
Wirkin Estevez R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	26	SP	4.68	14.8%	7.3%	3.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	238	67
Brian Powell R 2002 · 5.53 FIP	28	SP-	5.53	11.8%	8.3%	4.3%	.276	4.45	14.5%	7.3%	39	-1.08	4.45	212	67
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	67
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	66
P.J. Walters R 2013 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP	4.82	12.0%	9.8%	2.7%	.333	3.97	15.9%	8.2%	83	-0.85	3.97	230	66
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	65
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	65
Seth Etherton R 2005 · 5.78 FIP	28	SP	5.78	13.5%	6.8%	5.4%	.218	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	108	65
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	88	15.1%	7.7%	1.59	5.19
Jason Berken ('12)	1.2	83	14.3%	8.0%	1.41	5.36
Bill Trotter ('37-'44, -3 WAR*)	2.4	97	15.3%*	7.0%*	1.43*	4.99*
Carlos Castillo ('01)	1.1	70	14.2%	9.0%	1.58	5.04
Ramon Garcia ('97)	1.6	104	15.1%	7.9%	1.44	4.84
Emerson Dickman ('36-'41, -1 WAR*)	1.7	87	17.0%*	8.4%*	1.54*	4.86*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*