Jesus Rios

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	24	0	38	4.93	3.07	18.4%	7.3%	—	K 13.3% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.86
2025	23	A+KC	35	0	55	3.60	3.43	18.2%	7.4%	—	K 14.0% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.15
2026	24	A+MIA	33	1	58	6.52	5.86	17.7%	13.8%	—	K 13.6% · BB 15.8% · FIP 6.63
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIA	67	0	70	6.01	6.01	12.6%	14.3%	-1.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBMIA	29	0	30	5.79	5.75	14.6%	13.7%	-0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBMIA	41	0	43	5.68	5.68	15.3%	13.5%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJeff Soptic (age 25) · Conner O'Neil (age 24) · Julian Arballo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA6.01

FIP6.01

K%12.6%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%-1.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	21	0	24	118	18	14	2	0%	1.1	10.4%	14.8%	-4.5%	2.4%	5.62	5.41	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	21	0	24	118	18	14	2	0%	1.1	15.3%	11.9%	3.4%	1.7%	5.62	4.43	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	38	179	33	13	2	0%	1.6	13.3%	8.7%	4.6%	1.4%	4.93	3.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	38	179	33	13	2	0%	1.6	13.3%	8.7%	4.6%	1.4%	4.93	3.86	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	38	179	33	13	2	0%	1.6	18.4%	7.3%	11.2%	1.1%	4.93	3.07	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	35	0	55	242	44	18	4	0%	1.6	14.0%	8.6%	5.4%	2.1%	3.60	4.15	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	35	0	55	242	44	18	4	0%	1.6	14.0%	8.6%	5.4%	2.1%	3.60	4.15	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	35	0	55	242	44	18	4	0%	1.6	18.2%	7.4%	10.7%	1.7%	3.60	3.43	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	33	1	58	283	50	39	11	3%	1.8	13.6%	15.8%	-2.2%	4.9%	6.52	6.63	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	33	1	58	283	50	39	11	3%	1.8	13.6%	15.8%	-2.2%	4.9%	6.52	6.63	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	33	1	58	283	50	39	11	3%	1.8	17.7%	13.8%	3.9%	3.9%	6.52	5.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIA	67	0	70	296	37	42	10	0%	1.0	12.6%	14.3%	-1.7%	3.2%	6.01	6.01	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	67	0	70	296	43	41	10	0%	1.0	14.6%	13.7%	0.9%	3.2%	5.79	5.75	-0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	66	0	69	291	45	39	9	0%	1.0	15.3%	13.5%	1.8%	3.3%	5.68	5.68	-0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	282	44	38	9	0%	1.0	15.6%	13.4%	2.2%	3.3%	5.66	5.70	-0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	270	42	36	9	0%	1.0	15.5%	13.5%	2.0%	3.5%	5.73	5.80	-0.9
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	29	0	30	127	19	17	4	0%	1.0	14.6%	13.7%	0.9%	3.2%	5.79	5.75	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	41	0	43	182	28	24	6	0%	1.0	15.3%	13.5%	1.8%	3.3%	5.68	5.68	-0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	48	0	50	211	33	28	7	0%	1.0	15.6%	13.4%	2.2%	3.3%	5.66	5.70	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	52	220	34	30	8	0%	1.0	15.5%	13.5%	2.0%	3.5%	5.73	5.80	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	176	742	114	100	25	0%	1.1	15.3%	13.5%	1.8%	3.3%	5.71	5.35	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	130	114	28	0%	1.1	15.3%	13.5%	1.8%	3.3%	5.71	5.35	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		113	1	175	822	108	99	24	1%	1.6	13.2%	12.0%	1.2%	2.9%	5.13	5.12	-3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	1	200	938	124	113	28	1%	1.6	13.2%	12.0%	1.2%	2.9%	5.13	5.12	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Rios (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.01	12.6%	14.3%	3.2%	—	5.71	15.2%	1.6%	206	-0.30	—	—	—
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	88
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	86
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	85
Jarod Wright R 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SU	5.73	12.7%	13.2%	3.7%	.282	4.46	13.2%	3.8%	53	-1.27	4.46	170	84
Rafael Dolis R 2012 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	13.9%	12.7%	3.0%	.287	4.02	15.8%	1.5%	66	-1.17	2.80	200	84
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	83
Scott Griggs R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	25	SU	5.11	11.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.278	4.19	19.7%	8.0%	112	-0.92	3.06	176	83
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	83
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	82
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	81
Claudio Custodio R 2015 · 5.31 FIP	24	SU	5.31	11.1%	13.2%	2.7%	.351	3.79	11.5%	4.8%	37	-1.52	3.08	186	81
Aaron Cohn R 2023 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	11.1%	10.7%	4.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	5.72	106	81
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	81
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	81
Nick Highberger R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	25	SU	4.82	12.4%	13.3%	2.0%	.279	5.74	15.0%	-1.7%	95	+0.92	3.81	249	80
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	80
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	80
Yunior Thibo R 2023 · 5.32 FIP	25	SU	5.32	14.3%	15.6%	2.7%	.231	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	110	80
Miguel Nunez R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	13.2%	13.7%	2.6%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	154	80
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	14.7%	13.7%	1.28	5.78
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*