Braxton Roxby

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 231 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AACIN	39	48	5.21	2.44	28.8%	10.6%	—	K 23.3% · BB 11.7% · FIP 3.15
2025	26	MIX2 levels	45	62	3.63	3.02	31.4%	10.3%	—	K 26.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 3.63
2026	27	MIX2 levels	44	70	3.75	3.62	22.1%	9.8%	0.8	K 19.8% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.96
2027PROJ	28	MLBSF	66	69	4.54	4.54	22.1%	10.8%	0.0
2028PROJ50% MLB	29	MLBSF	31	33	4.59	4.64	22.0%	10.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ65% MLB	30	MLBSF	38	40	4.71	4.80	21.8%	11.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command35FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsJosh Lueke (age 28) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Neil Wagner (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%22.1%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD3035

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	40	188	61	23	3	0%	1.3	26.5%	15.7%	10.8%	0.8%	4.31	3.31	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	40	188	61	23	3	0%	1.3	32.4%	12.2%	20.2%	1.6%	4.31	2.75	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	19	0	22	100	32	10	0	0%	1.2	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	0.0%	4.84	2.48	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	19	0	22	100	32	10	0	0%	1.2	32.0%	10.0%	22.0%	0.0%	4.84	1.58	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	59	248	75	18	6	0%	1.4	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	2.3%	3.34	3.60	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	59	248	75	18	6	0%	1.4	30.2%	7.3%	23.0%	2.4%	3.34	2.80	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	39	0	48	226	65	24	2	0%	1.2	23.3%	11.7%	11.6%	1.0%	5.21	3.15	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	39	0	48	226	65	24	2	0%	1.2	23.3%	11.7%	11.6%	1.0%	5.21	3.15	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	39	0	48	226	65	24	2	0%	1.2	28.8%	10.6%	18.1%	0.9%	5.21	2.44	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	62	261	82	27	6	0%	1.4	26.3%	10.0%	16.3%	2.7%	3.63	3.63	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	62	261	82	27	6	0%	1.4	26.3%	10.0%	16.3%	2.7%	3.63	3.63	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	62	261	82	27	6	0%	1.4	31.4%	10.3%	21.1%	2.3%	3.63	3.02	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	70	285	63	28	6	0%	1.6	19.8%	9.0%	10.8%	2.5%	3.75	3.96	+0.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	70	285	63	28	6	0%	1.6	19.8%	9.0%	10.8%	2.5%	3.75	3.96	+0.5
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	70	285	63	28	6	0%	1.6	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	2.1%	3.75	3.62	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	5	25	3	2	0	0%	1.3	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%	0.0%	3.38	3.10	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SF	66	0	69	291	65	31	8	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.8%	11.3%	2.8%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SF	63	0	66	280	62	30	8	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.59	4.64	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	SF	59	0	62	263	57	29	8	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	3.2%	4.71	4.80	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	SF	31	0	33	139	31	15	4	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.59	4.64	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	SF	38	0	40	169	37	19	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	3.2%	4.71	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	0	79	335	71	36	10	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.7%	10.4%	2.9%	4.57	4.25	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	851	180	91	25	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.7%	10.4%	2.9%	4.57	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		219	0	301	1308	308	141	24	0%	1.4	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	1.8%	4.03	3.48	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	0	200	868	204	94	16	0%	1.4	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	1.8%	4.03	3.48	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braxton Roxby (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	22.1%	10.8%	2.8%	—	4.72	21.9%	11.0%	128	+0.18	—	—	—
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	83
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	82
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	81
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	81
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	81
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	81
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	81
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	80
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	80
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	79
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	79
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	21.7%	10.8%	1.13	4.58
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*