Trey McLoughlin

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	37	0	42	2.34	3.45	29.1%	12.2%	—	K 23.4% · BB 13.9% · FIP 4.05
2025	26	MIX2 levels	19	1	23	3.91	2.97	27.1%	12.5%	—	K 21.8% · BB 14.2% · FIP 3.77
2026	27	MIX2 levels	44	0	67	3.61	4.48	22.8%	10.9%	—	K 19.1% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.06
2027PROJ	28	MLBHOU	33	0	35	4.90	4.90	20.1%	11.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBHOU	11	0	12	4.92	4.98	20.2%	11.1%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%20.1%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP35

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	1	21	86	19	7	7	14%	3.0	16.0%	10.0%	6.1%	11.1%	6.10	9.10	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	1	21	86	19	7	7	14%	3.0	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	8.1%	6.10	6.68	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	51	207	60	12	9	4%	2.0	21.7%	6.8%	14.9%	5.9%	3.71	5.38	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	51	207	60	12	9	4%	2.0	29.0%	5.8%	23.2%	4.3%	3.71	3.75	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	52	214	64	16	5	0%	1.5	23.7%	8.4%	15.4%	3.0%	2.79	3.79	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	52	214	64	16	5	0%	1.5	29.9%	7.5%	22.4%	2.3%	2.79	2.81	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	42	172	50	21	4	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.9%	9.5%	2.1%	2.34	4.05	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	42	172	50	21	4	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.9%	9.5%	2.1%	2.34	4.05	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	42	172	50	21	4	0%	1.1	29.1%	12.2%	16.9%	2.3%	2.34	3.45	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	1	23	96	26	12	1	5%	1.2	21.8%	14.2%	7.6%	1.3%	3.91	3.77	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	1	23	96	26	12	1	5%	1.2	21.8%	14.2%	7.6%	1.3%	3.91	3.77	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	1	23	96	26	12	1	5%	1.2	27.1%	12.5%	14.6%	1.0%	3.91	2.97	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	67	285	65	31	10	0%	1.5	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	4.1%	3.61	5.06	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	67	285	65	31	10	0%	1.5	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	4.1%	3.61	5.06	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	67	285	65	31	10	0%	1.5	22.8%	10.9%	11.9%	3.5%	3.61	4.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	HOU	33	0	35	148	30	16	5	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.1%	9.1%	3.1%	4.90	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	32	0	33	141	28	16	5	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.1%	9.1%	3.3%	4.92	4.98	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	11	0	12	51	10	6	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.1%	9.1%	3.3%	4.92	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	52	10	6	2	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.1%	9.1%	3.3%	4.92	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	98	33	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.1%	9.1%	3.3%	4.92	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		168	3	256	1060	225	108	45	2%	1.5	21.2%	10.2%	11.0%	4.2%	3.48	4.91	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	2	200	828	176	85	35	2%	1.5	21.2%	10.2%	11.0%	4.2%	3.48	4.91	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey McLoughlin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	20.1%	11.1%	3.1%	—	4.98	20.2%	9.1%	33	+0.08	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	88
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	88
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	87
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	87
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	85
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	84
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	84
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	84
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	83
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	82
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	82
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	82
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	82
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	82
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	20.2%	11.1%	1.24	4.91
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*