Juan Chacon — OGILVIE

Juan ChaconRF Portland Sea Dogs

Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 171 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†43

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .254 / .268

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%6

BABIP282

ISO79

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	197	164	51	5	2	1	26	26	7	11	7	311	426	384	811	73	365	13	13	375	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	34	31	4	1	0	0	3	13	0	1	0	129	206	161	367	32	222	38	9	179	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	171	138	31	10	0	1	26	53	3	21	3	225	359	319	678	94	341	31	15	312	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	235	199	48	6	6	0	31	52	4	20	10	241	355	332	686	90	324	22	13	317	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Greenville Drive	—	334	305	62	18	3	2	25	109	3	9	3	203	270	302	572	98	308	33	7	261	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	151	131	30	7	1	0	14	41	2	3	3	229	309	298	606	69	330	27	9	276	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	197	173	33	3	1	0	17	32	7	11	7	191	289	220	509	29	235	16	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	34	32	3	1	0	0	2	19	0	1	0	94	147	125	272	31	204	56	6	119	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	171	149	21	5	0	1	15	76	3	21	3	141	234	195	428	54	253	44	9	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	235	209	42	5	5	0	21	72	4	20	10	201	286	273	559	72	306	31	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	334	314	44	12	2	1	16	149	3	9	3	140	189	201	390	61	259	45	5	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	151	137	28	5	1	0	10	51	2	3	3	204	268	255	524	51	319	34	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	197	173	33	3	1	0	17	32	7	11	7	191	289	220	509	29	234	16	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	—	197	164	51	5	2	1	26	26	7	11	7	311	426	384	811	73	365	13	13	375	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	205	181	24	6	0	1	17	95	3	22	3	133	219	182	401	50	258	46	8	187	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	205	169	35	11	0	1	29	66	3	22	3	207	333	290	623	83	321	32	14	290	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	235	209	42	5	5	0	21	72	4	20	10	201	286	273	559	72	304	31	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	—	235	199	48	6	6	0	31	52	4	20	10	241	355	332	686	90	324	22	13	317	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	334	314	44	12	2	1	16	149	3	9	3	140	189	201	390	61	261	45	5	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	—	334	305	62	18	3	2	25	109	3	9	3	203	270	302	572	98	308	33	7	261	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	151	137	28	5	1	0	10	51	2	3	3	204	268	255	524	51	322	34	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	151	131	30	7	1	0	14	41	2	3	3	229	309	298	606	69	330	27	9	276	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	197	171	33	3	1	0	17	32	7	11	7	193	289	222	512	29	235	16	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	205	183	24	6	0	1	17	95	3	22	3	131	219	180	399	49	245	46	8	187	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	235	208	42	5	5	0	21	72	4	20	10	202	286	274	560	72	306	31	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	334	312	44	12	2	1	16	149	3	9	3	141	189	202	391	61	259	45	5	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	151	138	28	5	1	0	10	51	2	3	3	203	268	254	522	51	319	34	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	334	312	44	12	2	1	16	149	3	9	3	141	189	202	391	61	259	45	5	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	151	138	28	5	1	0	10	51	2	3	3	203	268	254	522	51	319	34	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BOS	2%	201	185	36	8	1	1	12	58	2	4	1	192	248	258	506	66	272	29	6	232	43	-14	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	BOS	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	198	254	268	523	70	282	33	0	239	43	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	31%	234	216	42	9	1	2	14	67	2	4	1	197	255	276	531	79	273	29	6	242	50	-14	+0	+0	-3	+5	-1.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	31%	73	68	14	3	0	1	4	21	1	1	0	203	261	286	547	83	283	29	5	249	50	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	73	68	14	3	0	1	4	21	1	1	0	206	260	294	554	88	283	29	5	249	36	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	605	125	27	0	9	36	187	9	9	0	207	262	296	557	89	284	29	6	249	36	-39	+2	+0	-7	+14	-3.1
Career	—	MLE		—	1493	1357	238	45	11	5	103	506	22	71	28	175	245	236	481	60	273	34	7	221	36	-23	+0	+0	-4	+8	-1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	104	20	5	2	45	220	10	31	12	176	247	237	483	61	273	34	7	221	36	-41	+1	+0	-7	+14	-3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Chacon (OGILVIE)	24	35	25	45	40	190/246/256	66	272	1	2	29%	6%	43	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Richard Nunez 2019 · A	24	39	36→30	47→55	47	182/259/252	69	257	2	9	28%	9%	47	-2.5	206/271/297	91	286	6	6	28%	8%	62	-1.4	188/264/281	93	239	9	3	24%	9%	54	-0.3
✕Jon Murphy 2014 · A	24	43	37→30	47→50	38	206/253/278	71	294	4	12	30%	5%	50	-2.3	194/252/263	69	315	4	10	37%	7%	47	-2.6	144/213/178	34	261	2	9	42%	8%	11	-2.1
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→30	50→45	40	185/239/261	76	255	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	210/271/302	92	296	8	10	30%	7%	63	-1.4	202/270/282	80	285	9	12	31%	7%	57	-0.4
✕Jordan Serena 2017 · A	24	42→44	35→30	48→50	39	197/257/259	61	295	2	11	32%	6%	47	-2.5	194/246/270	76	297	5	10	34%	5%	46	-2.6	158/205/220	62	247	5	11	37%	4%	16	-2.2
✕Roberto Baldoquin 2018 · A	24	42	37→30	43→45	38	202/247/268	67	288	5	8	31%	5%	45	-2.7	213/260/289	76	299	4	7	29%	5%	55	-1.9	209/264/268	59	287	2	4	26%	5%	50	-1.1
✕Danny Oriente 2022 · A	24	45	37→30	43→50	44	211/277/280	69	294	4	7	28%	7%	60	-1.6	215/282/286	71	281	5	11	24%	7%	63	-1.3	208/280/246	37	263	3	16	20%	7%	53	-0.8
✕Cristopher Navarro 2023 · AA	24	39	35→30	46→45	37	188/235/240	52	284	3	6	33%	5%	34	-3.5	194/248/267	73	277	4	6	30%	6%	46	-2.6	177/235/243	66	245	3	2	28%	6%	34	-0.8
✕Connor Justus 2019 · AA	24	39→37	38→40	42→45	46	187/272/266	79	264	6	8	29%	8%	56	-1.9	176/250/244	68	255	4	8	30%	7%	42	-2.9	151/222/201	49	225	2	6	31%	6%	20	-2.7
✕Nick Roscetti 2018 · A	24	42	36→30	50→45	38	200/234/271	70	270	3	8	26%	4%	40	-3.0	204/245/257	53	308	2	8	32%	5%	41	-3.0	224/263/259	36	309	0	8	26%	5%	47	-1.3
✕Cody Bohanek 2019 · AAA	24	39→36	38→40	46→50	41	187/264/259	71	271	7	10	31%	6%	52	-2.2	177/268/264	87	291	8	12	39%	8%	55	-1.9	149/254/236	86	262	7	16	41%	8%	43	-1.6
✕Seth Harrison 2016 · A	24	38→42	37→40	46→50	35	183/228/259	75	278	5	14	35%	4%	36	-3.3	204/252/295	91	284	7	12	29%	5%	54	-2.0	202/251/296	94	271	7	12	27%	5%	51	-1.7
✕Dillon Moyer 2015 · A	24	37→38	36→30	47→50	40	180/237/245	65	265	3	10	32%	6%	37	-3.3	163/213/223	60	309	3	8	45%	5%	23	-4.3	103/146/136	34	238	0	5	54%	4%	-25	-4.5
✕Alberti Chavez 2019 · AA	24	38	36→30	39→50	34	186/228/241	55	281	4	5	34%	4%	32	-3.7	206/257/276	70	290	5	6	29%	5%	51	-2.2	200/251/246	46	278	3	3	27%	5%	41	-1.0
✕Chris Madera 2017 · A	24	44	38→30	49→50	43	210/266/286	75	279	5	10	26%	6%	57	-1.8	199/249/254	55	253	3	13	21%	6%	43	-2.8	189/240/234	45	236	3	15	20%	6%	33	-2.7
✕Alexis Bastardo 2017 · A	23	40	35→40	50→55	39	190/245/246	56	274	2	10	30%	5%	40	-3.1	200/246/273	73	279	5	13	29%	5%	47	-2.6	189/226/255	66	254	6	20	28%	4%	32	-1.4
✕Jayson Hernandez 2013 · AA	24	39	39→30	49→30	37	192/235/277	84	281	6	8	33%	5%	43	-2.8	212/258/285	73	281	5	5	25%	4%	53	-2.1	222/266/253	31	284	2	0	21%	3%	46	-1.0
✕Matthew Hall 2011 · AAA	24	36	36→30	47→45	37	178/224/243	65	261	4	7	32%	5%	31	-3.7	202/256/284	82	282	5	10	29%	6%	53	-2.1	201/259/281	79	275	5	12	27%	6%	53	-1.3
✕Jose Toussen 2014 · A	24	43	35→30	44→50	44	201/249/257	57	260	2	9	23%	6%	43	-2.8	207/256/275	68	280	3	12	26%	6%	51	-2.3	197/235/235	38	269	0	19	26%	5%	30	-1.1
✕Kevin Vicuña 2022 · AAA	24	44→42	36→40	50	39	210/263/278	68	287	4	15	27%	5%	54	-2.0	227/279/316	89	297	6	12	24%	5%	69	-0.9	234/284/323	89	303	4	10	23%	4%	69	-0.4
✕Juan Sanchez 2011 · AA	24	44→45	36→30	41→50	38	209/254/276	68	278	3	6	25%	4%	50	-2.3	206/254/279	73	265	4	7	23%	5%	51	-2.3	198/245/261	64	247	3	7	20%	4%	41	-1.1