Casey Cobb prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Casey Cobb P Greenville Drive

Age 30 RHP 5'10" / 200 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%21.8%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	74	282	82	15	5	3%	2.5	21.8%	6.2%	15.5%	2.6%	1.95	3.48	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	1	74	282	82	15	5	3%	2.5	29.1%	5.3%	23.8%	1.8%	1.95	2.37	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	2	60	281	57	24	10	6%	1.8	15.8%	9.5%	6.3%	4.5%	6.27	5.46	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	2	60	281	57	24	10	6%	1.8	20.3%	8.5%	11.7%	3.6%	6.27	4.56	—
2023	27	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	29	1	58	259	63	19	11	3%	2.0	18.7%	8.4%	10.3%	5.7%	5.62	5.72	—
2023	27	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	29	1	58	259	63	19	11	3%	2.0	18.7%	8.4%	10.3%	5.7%	5.62	5.72	—
2023	27	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	29	1	58	259	63	19	11	3%	2.0	24.3%	7.3%	17.0%	4.2%	5.62	4.38	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.8%	8.8%	13.0%	3.1%	4.46	4.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	BOS	35	0	37	155	33	14	5	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.2%	12.3%	3.3%	4.56	4.65	-0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	BOS	10	0	11	46	10	4	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.2%	12.3%	3.3%	4.56	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	10	4	2	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.2%	12.3%	3.3%	4.56	4.27	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	72	36	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.2%	12.3%	3.3%	4.56	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		93	4	192	822	154	66	35	4%	2.1	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	4.2%	4.41	4.86	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	4	200	858	161	69	36	4%	2.1	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	4.2%	4.41	4.86	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Casey Cobb (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	21.8%	8.8%	3.1%	—	4.65	21.6%	12.3%	37	+0.19	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	82
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	78
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	78
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	78
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	77
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	75
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	75
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	75
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	74
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	74
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	74
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	74
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	73
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	73
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	21.7%	9.0%	1.24	4.51
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78