Pedro Garcia (P, Louisville Bats) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Pedro Garcia P Louisville Bats

Age 31 RHP 5'11" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%24.7%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	16	61	16	4	0	33%	2.6	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	0.0%	0.00	2.80	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	2	16	61	16	4	0	33%	2.6	26.2%	6.6%	19.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.82	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	53	223	71	23	4	0%	1.6	22.9%	13.6%	9.4%	2.2%	3.59	4.09	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	53	223	71	23	4	0%	1.6	31.8%	10.3%	21.5%	1.8%	3.59	2.70	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	56	241	66	20	4	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	1.8%	3.20	3.29	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	56	241	66	20	4	0%	1.1	27.4%	8.3%	19.1%	1.7%	3.20	2.74	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	50	233	78	39	12	0%	1.1	27.4%	17.4%	10.0%	5.8%	6.30	6.16	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	50	233	78	39	12	0%	1.1	27.4%	17.4%	10.0%	5.8%	6.30	6.16	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	50	233	78	39	12	0%	1.1	33.5%	16.7%	16.7%	5.2%	6.30	5.44	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	1	0	1	8	1	3	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	37.5%	-25.0%	12.5%	27.00	13.66	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	1	0	1	8	1	3	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	37.5%	-25.0%	12.5%	27.00	13.66	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	1	0	1	8	1	3	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	37.5%	-25.0%	12.5%	27.00	23.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.7%	12.9%	11.8%	3.2%	4.76	4.76	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CIN	29	0	30	127	31	16	4	0%	1.0	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	3.4%	4.85	4.94	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	CIN	10	0	11	46	11	6	2	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	3.4%	4.85	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	11	6	2	0%	1.0	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	3.4%	4.85	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	108	36	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	3.4%	4.85	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		135	2	176	766	181	101	24	1%	1.3	23.7%	13.2%	10.5%	3.1%	4.05	4.47	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	2	200	872	207	115	27	1%	1.3	23.7%	13.2%	10.5%	3.1%	4.05	4.47	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pedro Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	24.7%	12.9%	3.2%	—	4.94	24.1%	11.2%	30	+0.18	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	84
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	80
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	79
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	79
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	79
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	77
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	77
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	76
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	76
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	76
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	75
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	74
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	74
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	74
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	73
Sergio Santos R 2014 · 5.29 FIP	31	SU	5.29	27.4%	15.1%	4.7%	.411	4.17	24.7%	16.5%	16	-1.12	1.36	178	72
Grant Balfour R 2009 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	23.9%	11.4%	2.1%	.293	3.20	24.8%	16.8%	192	-0.47	2.04	533	72
Cody Hall R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	30	SU	3.92	25.9%	17.5%	1.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	134	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	24.5%	12.9%	1.27	4.80
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17