Parker Harm prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Parker Harm P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 208 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%22.2%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	ROK MLE	ACL Royals Blue	10	1	19	87	26	6	2	10%	1.9	20.3%	8.6%	11.7%	3.2%	6.16	4.24	—
2021	24	ROK RAW	ACL Royals Blue	10	1	19	87	26	6	2	10%	1.9	29.9%	6.9%	23.0%	2.3%	6.16	2.68	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	24	115	32	23	1	0%	1.4	20.7%	23.2%	-2.5%	0.0%	6.85	4.29	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	24	115	32	23	1	0%	1.4	27.8%	20.0%	7.8%	0.9%	6.85	3.86	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	33	0	38	179	44	30	2	0%	1.2	18.9%	19.3%	-0.3%	1.4%	5.21	4.68	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	33	0	38	179	44	30	2	0%	1.2	18.9%	19.3%	-0.3%	1.4%	5.21	4.68	—
2023	26	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	33	0	38	179	44	30	2	0%	1.2	24.6%	16.8%	7.8%	1.1%	5.21	3.84	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	13	73	23	16	0	0%	1.0	31.5%	21.9%	9.6%	0.0%	3.38	3.22	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	13	73	23	16	0	0%	1.0	31.5%	21.9%	9.6%	0.0%	3.38	3.22	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	13	73	23	16	0	0%	1.0	31.5%	21.9%	9.6%	0.0%	3.38	3.25	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2%	13.1%	9.1%	3.0%	4.88	4.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	KC	20	0	21	88	19	11	3	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	3.2%	4.93	5.01	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	KC	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	3.2%	4.93	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	7	28	6	4	1	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	3.2%	4.93	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	122	31	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	3.2%	4.93	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		74	1	94	454	98	85	5	1%	1.3	21.7%	18.7%	3.0%	1.1%	5.55	4.26	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	2	200	966	209	180	11	1%	1.3	21.7%	18.7%	3.0%	1.1%	5.55	4.26	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Parker Harm (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	22.2%	13.1%	3.0%	—	5.01	22.0%	9.0%	21	+0.13	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	82
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	81
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	80
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	79
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	78
Darin Downs L 2014 · 3.78 FIP	29	SU	3.78	18.2%	11.5%	1.4%	.255	4.06	12.9%	8.7%	16	+0.28	2.83	107	78
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	76
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	76
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	74
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	73
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	73
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	73
Jack Taschner L 2007 · 3.69 FIP	29	SU	3.69	23.0%	12.2%	1.8%	.286	4.41	16.2%	5.2%	97	+0.72	3.14	189	72
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	72
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	2.84	187	72
Sam Moll L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	26.5%	13.5%	3.8%	.310	2.95	25.1%	16.8%	143	-1.67	2.38	507	71
Vic Darensbourg L 2000 · 3.93 FIP	29	SU	3.93	21.5%	9.9%	2.5%	.298	4.26	15.3%	9.6%	97	+0.33	2.94	287	70
Robby Scott L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	29	SU	5.59	23.9%	15.9%	4.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	285	70
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	69
Doug Slaten L 2008 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	13.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.264	3.63	19.2%	10.2%	57	-0.93	3.22	139	69