Alek Jacob

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	49	68	4.87	4.56	26.9%	10.6%	-0.0	K 24.0% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.61
2025	27	MIX2 levels	55	61	5.19	4.63	22.5%	10.5%	-0.1	K 20.6% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.69
2026	28	MIX2 levels	50	66	5.56	4.35	21.7%	10.7%	0.2	K 18.4% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	29	MLBSD	70	73	4.82	5.22	15.0%	10.1%	-0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBSD	24	25	5.10	5.34	15.2%	10.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBSD	33	35	5.30	5.49	15.0%	10.5%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs23

Whiff%22

FB Velo10

K%10

CompsJoel Peralta (age 29) · Evan Scribner (age 28) · Chris Smith (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA4.82

FIP5.22

K%15.0%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1085.3

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p1015.0%

xwOBA vs

p230.344

CH (34%)

SI (20%)

SL (3%)

FB (62%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	0	20	72	29	2	0	0%	1.5	28.7%	3.5%	25.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.12	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	0	20	72	29	2	0	0%	1.5	40.3%	2.8%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.46	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	1	57	239	77	15	5	2%	1.3	24.4%	7.8%	16.5%	2.5%	2.68	3.42	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	1	57	239	77	15	5	2%	1.3	32.2%	6.3%	25.9%	2.1%	2.68	2.33	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	30	119	37	8	1	0%	1.4	23.8%	7.1%	16.7%	1.3%	1.19	2.72	+0.7
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	30	119	37	8	1	0%	1.4	31.1%	6.7%	24.4%	0.8%	1.19	1.88	+1.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	68	312	84	33	13	0%	1.4	24.0%	9.6%	14.4%	4.2%	4.87	4.61	-0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	68	312	84	33	13	0%	1.4	24.0%	9.6%	14.4%	4.2%	4.87	4.61	-0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	68	312	84	33	13	0%	1.4	26.9%	10.6%	16.3%	4.2%	4.87	4.56	-0.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	61	275	62	29	10	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	3.8%	5.19	4.69	-0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	61	275	62	29	10	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	3.8%	5.19	4.69	-0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	61	275	62	29	10	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	3.6%	5.19	4.63	-0.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	66	299	65	32	9	0%	1.3	18.4%	9.8%	8.6%	3.2%	5.56	4.54	+0.0
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	66	299	65	32	9	0%	1.3	18.4%	9.8%	8.6%	3.2%	5.56	4.54	+0.0
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	66	299	65	32	9	0%	1.3	21.7%	10.7%	11.0%	3.0%	5.56	4.35	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	0	56	243	53	19	8	0%	1.3	21.8%	7.8%	14.0%	3.3%	4.18	4.08	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SD	70	0	73	308	46	31	10	0%	1.0	15.0%	10.1%	5.0%	3.2%	4.82	5.22	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SD	66	0	69	291	44	30	10	0%	1.0	15.2%	10.3%	4.9%	3.3%	5.10	5.34	-0.6
2029	31	MLB MLE	SD	61	0	64	271	41	29	10	0%	1.1	15.0%	10.5%	4.5%	3.5%	5.30	5.49	-0.7
2028	30	MLB CTX	SD	24	0	25	106	16	11	4	0%	1.0	15.2%	10.3%	4.9%	3.3%	5.10	5.34	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	SD	33	0	35	148	22	16	5	0%	1.1	15.0%	10.5%	4.5%	3.5%	5.30	5.49	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		100	0	117	499	92	46	17	0%	1.2	18.4%	9.2%	9.2%	3.4%	4.72	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		171	0	200	856	158	79	29	0%	1.2	18.4%	9.2%	9.2%	3.4%	4.72	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		231	1	302	1316	294	116	41	0%	1.3	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	3.1%	3.99	4.03	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	1	200	871	194	77	27	0%	1.3	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	3.1%	3.99	4.03	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alek Jacob (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	15.0%	10.1%	3.2%	—	5.41	15.1%	4.7%	133	+0.19	—	—	—
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	64
Evan Scribner R 2013 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	16.7%	6.1%	2.9%	.271	4.59	26.9%	25.2%	60	+0.53	3.23	136	62
Chris Smith R 2009 · 5.84 FIP	28	SU	5.84	17.5%	9.5%	5.5%	.222	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	477	62
Vinny Nittoli R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	19.0%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	3.86	26.9%	20.4%	93	-0.32	3.66	331	60
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	60
Cory Rasmus R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.9%	13.2%	3.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	138	60
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	58
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	58
Brandon Puffer R 2004 · 5.23 FIP	28	SU	5.23	13.5%	11.2%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	108	58
Tony Fiore R 2000 · 5.61 FIP	28	SU	5.61	10.8%	9.5%	4.0%	.321	4.76	14.3%	3.5%	127	-0.85	4.60	142	58
Jason Boyd R 2002 · 5.81 FIP	29	SU	5.81	13.7%	10.7%	4.6%	.290	4.74	15.0%	3.7%	65	-1.07	3.68	128	58
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	58
A.J. Achter R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	15.0%	11.0%	2.2%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	174	57
Santiago Casilla R 2009 · 4.44 FIP	29	SU	4.44	15.0%	9.4%	2.6%	.324	3.29	22.1%	13.0%	170	-1.15	2.76	647	57
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	57
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	57
Pat Neshek R 2011 · 5.88 FIP	30	SU	5.88	17.9%	18.8%	3.5%	.224	3.30	22.5%	17.8%	127	-2.58	1.57	479	56
Tyler Cravy R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	28	SU	5.66	13.8%	10.4%	4.4%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	276	56
Danny Barnes R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	19.9%	11.0%	3.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	243	56
Esteban Haro R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	29	SU	4.14	11.6%	8.4%	1.7%	.302	4.25	15.6%	7.8%	78	+0.11	3.76	164	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	66	16.5%	9.8%	1.29	4.87
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*