Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | 9 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 2.5% | 1.32 | 3.54 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | 9 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 35.1% | 7.0% | 28.1% | 1.8% | 1.32 | 2.00 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 32 | 2 | 47 | 190 | 68 | 21 | 7 | 6% | 1.5 | 27.6% | 12.7% | 14.8% | 4.2% | 4.44 | 4.68 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 32 | 2 | 47 | 190 | 68 | 21 | 7 | 6% | 1.5 | 35.8% | 11.1% | 24.7% | 3.7% | 4.44 | 3.49 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 30 | 0 | 35 | 139 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.3% | 10.3% | 20.0% | 1.0% | 2.83 | 2.40 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 30 | 0 | 35 | 139 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 37.4% | 9.4% | 28.1% | 0.7% | 2.83 | 1.61 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 27% | 1.3 | 31.0% | 8.6% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 4.40 | 1.57 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 27% | 1.3 | 31.0% | 8.6% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 4.40 | 1.63 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 52 | 240 | 62 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 13.0% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.70 | 4.35 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 52 | 240 | 62 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.20 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 2 | 84 | 364 | 94 | 38 | 5 | 4% | 1.7 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 3.66 | 3.52 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 2 | 84 | 364 | 94 | 38 | 5 | 4% | 1.7 | 25.8% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 1.4% | 3.66 | 2.99 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 47 | 0 | 67 | 272 | 73 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 2.1% | 2.41 | 3.73 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ARI | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 40 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ARI | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 40 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 107 | 441 | 113 | 48 | 10 | — | — | 25.6% | 10.8% | 14.8% | 2.3% | 3.07 | 3.91 | +1.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 44 | 185 | 113 | 48 | 10 | — | — | 61.1% | 25.8% | 35.3% | 5.5% | 7.54 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 58 | 0 | 61 | 256 | 59 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 53 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 52 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 49 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 46 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 56 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 49 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 44 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 203 | 0 | 220 | 932 | 216 | 105 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.06 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 0 | 200 | 847 | 196 | 95 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 220 | 7 | 312 | 1320 | 328 | 150 | 30 | 3% | 1.4 | 24.8% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 3.68 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 4 | 200 | 845 | 210 | 96 | 19 | 3% | 1.4 | 24.8% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Taylor Rashi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.22 | 23.6% | 11.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.70 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 168 | +0.48 | — | — | — |
| Greg Holland R 2025 · 3.21 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.21 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.35 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.14 | 1.97 | 268 | 79 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 75 |
| Blake Parker R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.84 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.48 | 2.61 | 339 | 74 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.00 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 144 | -0.34 | 3.03 | 256 | 74 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 74 |
| Carlos Villanueva R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.53 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.02 | 19.0% | 15.9% | 74 | +1.49 | 3.53 | 135 | 73 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.54 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .356 | 3.18 | 30.1% | 22.1% | 127 | -0.36 | 2.25 | 317 | 72 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 72 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 70 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 70 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 0.9% | .333 | 3.74 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.54 | 3.20 | 244 | 69 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 69 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 69 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 69 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 69 |
| John Axford R 2028 · 3.10 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.10 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .333 | 3.98 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.88 | 3.10 | 197 | 68 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 68 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 68 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 22.5% | 11.4% | 1.11 | 4.49 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |