Chris Roycroft
P
Durham Bulls
Age 29
RHP
6'8" / 230 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.44
FIP4.46
K%18.0%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%5.9%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p1019.4%
K%
p2118.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.364
SI (47%)
SL (6%)
CT-1.7 (24%)
FB-2.8 (70%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 19 | 0 | 32 | 157 | 40 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.6% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 1.3% | 4.50 | 3.64 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 19 | 0 | 32 | 157 | 40 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 25.5% | 10.2% | 15.3% | 1.3% | 4.50 | 2.91 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 63 | 294 | 64 | 40 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.8% | 16.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 5.86 | 4.48 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 63 | 294 | 64 | 40 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.8% | 13.6% | 8.2% | 1.0% | 5.86 | 3.59 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 80 | 351 | 78 | 34 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 1.5% | 3.04 | 3.42 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 80 | 351 | 78 | 34 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 1.4% | 3.04 | 3.24 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 67 | 311 | 62 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.1% | 11.6% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 5.75 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 67 | 311 | 62 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 5.75 | 3.98 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 67 | 0 | 70 | 341 | 57 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 6.81 | 3.97 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | STL | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 42 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 12.2% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | STL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 42 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 12.2% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | STL | — | — | 125 | 574 | 99 | 61 | 14 | — | — | 17.2% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 5.77 | 4.19 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | STL | — | — | 72 | 303 | 99 | 61 | 14 | — | — | 32.6% | 20.2% | 12.4% | 4.5% | 10.05 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | STL | 64 | 0 | 68 | 285 | 50 | 39 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 13.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.42 | 5.51 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | STL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 46 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.53 | 5.65 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | STL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 41 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.69 | 5.84 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | STL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 48 | 37 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 13.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.42 | 5.51 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | STL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.53 | 5.65 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | STL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 39 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.69 | 5.84 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 287 | 0 | 306 | 1345 | 236 | 177 | 42 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 13.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.66 | 5.00 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 879 | 154 | 116 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 13.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.66 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 250 | 0 | 312 | 1454 | 263 | 166 | 26 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.1% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 1.8% | 5.19 | 4.01 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 0 | 200 | 931 | 169 | 106 | 17 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.1% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 1.8% | 5.19 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris Roycroft (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 2.5% | — | 5.66 | 17.3% | 3.6% | 189 | +0.76 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 85 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 81 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 80 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 80 |
| Noah Song R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 79 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.97 | 20.6% | 15.2% | 3.1% | .237 | 4.27 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 104 | -0.70 | 2.40 | 231 | 79 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 77 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 77 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .256 | 2.88 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 65 | -1.51 | 2.54 | 130 | 76 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 76 |
| Wil Browning R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 76 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.85 | 15.9% | 13.5% | 0.7% | .301 | 3.34 | 16.6% | 7.1% | 109 | -0.51 | 3.20 | 244 | 76 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.61 | 17.8% | 17.5% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 185 | 76 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 76 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 75 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 234 | 75 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.54 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 187 | 75 |
| Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 75 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2025 · 5.15 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.15 | 15.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 237 | 74 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.37 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 163 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 65 | 17.7% | 13.5% | 1.24 | 5.36 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |