Carlos A. Francisco

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	23	A+PHI	41	0	47	5.13	3.10	26.6%	13.5%	—	K 20.5% · BB 15.6% · FIP 4.10
2023	24	MIX2 levels	49	0	60	4.03	2.72	28.6%	11.0%	—	K 22.6% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.56
2024	25	AAPHI	41	1	54	5.17	4.58	21.5%	12.8%	—	K 17.4% · BB 14.1% · FIP 5.09
2027PROJ	28	MLBPHI	35	0	37	4.81	4.81	20.9%	11.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBPHI	10	0	11	4.84	4.90	20.9%	11.4%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%20.9%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies East	14	0	22	95	19	3	0	0%	1.6	13.6%	3.9%	9.7%	0.0%	3.68	2.45	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies East	14	0	22	95	19	3	0	0%	1.6	20.0%	3.2%	16.8%	0.0%	3.68	1.78	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	28	127	35	15	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.3%	7.3%	4.2%	5.08	5.38	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	28	127	35	15	4	0%	1.1	27.6%	11.8%	15.7%	3.1%	5.08	4.05	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	41	0	47	207	55	28	2	0%	1.2	20.5%	15.6%	4.9%	1.4%	5.13	4.10	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	41	0	47	207	55	28	2	0%	1.2	26.6%	13.5%	13.0%	1.0%	5.13	3.10	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	60	255	73	28	3	0%	1.2	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	1.5%	4.03	3.56	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	60	255	73	28	3	0%	1.2	28.6%	11.0%	17.6%	1.2%	4.03	2.72	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	41	1	54	242	52	31	7	2%	1.3	17.4%	14.1%	3.3%	3.1%	5.17	5.09	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	41	1	54	242	52	31	7	2%	1.3	17.4%	14.1%	3.3%	3.1%	5.17	5.09	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	41	1	54	242	52	31	7	2%	1.3	21.5%	12.8%	8.7%	2.9%	5.17	4.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	PHI	35	0	37	156	33	18	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.4%	9.4%	3.0%	4.81	4.81	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	34	0	36	151	31	17	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.4%	9.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.90	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.4%	9.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	10	5	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.4%	9.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	90	18	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.4%	9.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		171	1	212	926	182	120	19	1%	1.2	19.7%	12.9%	6.8%	2.1%	4.67	4.21	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	1	200	874	172	113	18	1%	1.2	19.7%	12.9%	6.8%	2.1%	4.67	4.21	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos A. Francisco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	20.9%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.90	20.9%	9.4%	36	+0.09	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	88
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	87
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	86
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	86
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	86
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	85
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	85
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	85
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	85
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	84
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	83
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	82
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	82
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	82
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	82
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	20.9%	11.4%	1.19	4.82
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*