Mitch Spence

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MLBOakland Athle…	35	24	151	4.58	4.03	19.4%	6.8%	1.6
2025	27	MIX2 levels	40	15	114	5.38	4.52	18.8%	7.0%	0.0	K 18.0% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.48
2026	28	MIX2 levels	19	17	83	7.13	4.88	18.4%	8.1%	0.0	K 16.0% · BB 7.6% · FIP 5.07
2027PROJ	29	MLBKC	15	15	89	5.05	5.07	17.0%	7.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ61% MLB	30	MLBKC	8	8	51	5.19	5.28	16.3%	7.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ72% MLB	31	MLBKC	9	9	56	5.22	5.24	17.5%	7.4%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff48Control51Command45FB velo43

CompsRoss Ohlendorf (age 29) · Zack Segovia (age 32) · Chris Heston (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.07

K%17.0%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP89

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

CT (38%)

SI (17%)

CU (16%)

CH (7%)

SL (20%)

FB-0.6 (18%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	23	20	105	448	118	37	10	87%	4.6	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	2.8%	3.94	4.12	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	23	20	105	448	118	37	10	87%	4.6	26.3%	8.3%	18.1%	2.2%	3.94	3.15	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	130	564	127	42	17	93%	4.8	18.8%	8.0%	10.8%	3.4%	4.70	4.42	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	130	564	127	42	17	93%	4.8	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	3.0%	4.70	3.81	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	29	29	163	703	153	53	30	100%	5.6	18.7%	6.8%	11.9%	4.6%	4.47	4.91	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	29	29	163	703	153	53	30	100%	5.6	21.8%	7.5%	14.2%	4.3%	4.47	4.59	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	35	24	151	651	126	44	20	69%	4.3	19.4%	6.8%	12.6%	3.4%	4.58	4.17	+1.3
2024	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	35	24	151	651	126	44	20	69%	4.3	19.4%	6.8%	12.6%	3.4%	4.58	4.17	+1.3
2024	26	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	35	24	151	651	126	44	20	69%	4.3	19.4%	6.8%	12.6%	3.1%	4.58	4.03	+1.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	15	114	516	97	36	19	38%	2.8	18.0%	6.7%	11.2%	3.7%	5.38	4.48	+0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	15	114	516	97	36	19	38%	2.8	18.0%	6.7%	11.2%	3.7%	5.38	4.48	+0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	15	114	516	97	36	19	38%	2.8	18.8%	7.0%	11.8%	3.7%	5.38	4.52	+0.0
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	83	381	70	31	15	89%	4.4	16.0%	7.6%	8.5%	4.3%	7.13	5.07	-0.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	83	381	70	31	15	89%	4.4	16.0%	7.6%	8.5%	4.3%	7.13	5.07	-0.2
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	83	381	70	31	15	89%	4.4	18.4%	8.1%	10.2%	3.9%	7.13	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			70	33	245	1082	198	77	39	47%	3.5	18.3%	7.1%	11.2%	3.6%	5.39	4.49	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	KC	15	15	89	376	64	28	14	100%	5.9	17.0%	7.5%	9.4%	3.8%	5.05	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	84	353	57	28	14	100%	6.0	16.3%	7.8%	8.4%	4.0%	5.19	5.28	-0.4
2029	31	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	78	330	58	24	14	100%	6.0	17.5%	7.4%	10.1%	4.2%	5.22	5.24	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	51	215	35	17	9	100%	6.4	16.3%	7.8%	8.4%	4.0%	5.19	5.28	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	56	236	41	17	10	100%	6.2	17.5%	7.4%	10.1%	4.2%	5.22	5.24	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		88	51	352	1533	274	111	57	58%	4.0	17.9%	7.3%	10.6%	3.7%	5.34	4.56	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		50	29	200	871	156	63	32	58%	4.0	17.9%	7.3%	10.6%	3.7%	5.34	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		173	130	747	3263	608	243	122	75%	4.3	18.6%	7.5%	11.2%	3.7%	4.89	4.52	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	35	200	874	163	65	33	75%	4.3	18.6%	7.5%	11.2%	3.7%	4.89	4.52	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitch Spence (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	17.0%	7.5%	3.8%	—	5.26	16.9%	9.3%	162	+0.19	—	—	—
Ross Ohlendorf R 2012 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	16.7%	10.3%	2.9%	.337	3.67	20.8%	14.6%	116	-0.93	3.30	617	70
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	67
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	67
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	66
Jason Berken R 2012 · 6.06 FIP	28	SP-	6.06	11.6%	7.4%	5.5%	.333	4.34	13.5%	6.9%	113	-1.72	3.37	468	65
Ariel Prieto R 2000 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP-	4.24	12.8%	8.8%	2.0%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	340	61
Brian Tollberg R 2002 · 4.98 FIP	29	SP	4.98	11.5%	5.9%	3.8%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	297	61
Erik Hiljus R 2002 · 6.07 FIP	29	SP	6.07	14.1%	9.7%	5.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	112	61
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	61
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	61
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	60
Seth Greisinger R 2004 · 5.38 FIP	29	SP-	5.38	15.5%	6.0%	5.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	219	60
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	60
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	59
J.P. France R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	29	SP	5.15	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.317	4.82	18.0%	3.9%	71	-0.33	4.04	577	59
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	59
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	59
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	59
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	58
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	99	17.6%	7.4%	1.46	5.27
Bill Trotter ('37-'44, -3 WAR*)	2.4	97	15.3%*	7.0%*	1.43*	4.99*
Pete Burnside ('55-'63, -2 WAR*)	2.8	95	17.6%*	8.6%*	1.33*	5.17*
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.2	77	18.0%	8.1%	1.48	4.96
Sal Romano ('21)	1.4	92	17.2%	8.9%	1.34	5.23
Xavier Rescigno ('43-'45, 0 WAR*)	1.7	112	18.7%*	7.8%*	1.47*	4.78*
Jason Bergmann ('10)	1.9	97	17.5%	9.0%	1.50	5.04