Dom Hamel

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 206 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAANYM	27	27	125	6.79	5.36	21.3%	13.2%	—	K 18.3% · BB 11.9% · FIP 5.31
2025	26	MIX2 levels	32	11	69	5.24	4.15	24.7%	7.2%	0.3	K 21.6% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.20
2026	27	MIX2 levels	26	24	112	7.07	5.28	18.5%	11.3%	—	K 15.6% · BB 10.5% · FIP 5.42
2027PROJ	28	MLBNYY	24	24	145	5.22	5.22	17.2%	9.3%	-0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBNYY	8	8	51	5.20	5.26	17.4%	9.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBNYY	12	12	72	5.26	5.36	17.4%	9.5%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control55Command55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsTravis Driskill (age 30) · Luke Irvine (age 27) · Nate Long (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%17.2%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP145

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†4040

SI (8%)

SL (62%)

FB (23%)

CT (8%)

CH-0.5 (8%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	2	2	3	9	7	0	0	100%	1.5	77.8%	0.0%	77.8%	0.0%	0.00	-3.47	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	2	2	3	9	7	0	0	100%	1.5	77.8%	0.0%	77.8%	0.0%	0.00	-1.57	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	119	490	145	54	5	96%	4.8	22.4%	12.9%	9.5%	1.4%	3.25	3.61	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	119	490	145	54	5	96%	4.8	29.6%	11.0%	18.6%	1.0%	3.25	2.57	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	26	25	124	527	160	49	12	96%	4.8	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	3.0%	3.85	3.94	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	26	25	124	527	160	49	12	96%	4.8	30.4%	9.3%	21.1%	2.3%	3.85	2.96	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	27	27	125	582	124	77	23	100%	4.6	18.3%	11.9%	6.4%	4.1%	6.79	5.31	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	27	27	125	582	124	77	23	100%	4.6	18.3%	11.9%	6.4%	4.1%	6.79	5.31	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	27	27	125	582	124	77	23	100%	4.6	21.3%	13.2%	8.1%	4.0%	6.79	5.36	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	11	69	304	75	22	12	34%	2.1	21.6%	6.6%	15.0%	3.8%	5.24	4.20	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	11	69	304	75	22	12	34%	2.1	21.6%	6.6%	15.0%	3.8%	5.24	4.20	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	11	69	304	75	22	12	34%	2.1	24.7%	7.2%	17.4%	3.9%	5.24	4.15	+0.3
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	112	531	98	60	20	92%	4.3	15.6%	10.5%	5.1%	4.2%	7.07	5.42	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	112	531	98	60	20	92%	4.3	15.6%	10.5%	5.1%	4.2%	7.07	5.42	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	112	531	98	60	20	92%	4.3	18.5%	11.3%	7.2%	3.8%	7.07	5.28	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	NYY	24	24	145	612	105	57	23	100%	6.0	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	3.7%	5.22	5.22	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	23	23	138	584	102	54	22	100%	6.0	17.4%	9.3%	8.1%	3.8%	5.20	5.26	-0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	130	548	95	52	21	100%	5.9	17.4%	9.5%	7.9%	3.9%	5.26	5.36	-0.7
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	51	215	37	20	8	100%	6.4	17.4%	9.3%	8.1%	3.8%	5.20	5.26	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	72	304	53	29	12	100%	6.0	17.4%	9.5%	7.9%	3.9%	5.26	5.36	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	20	123	523	90	49	20	95%	5.9	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	3.8%	5.19	4.91	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	847	146	79	32	95%	5.8	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	3.8%	5.19	4.91	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		138	113	551	2443	502	262	80	82%	4.0	20.5%	10.7%	9.8%	3.3%	5.19	4.53	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	41	200	886	182	95	29	82%	4.0	20.5%	10.7%	9.8%	3.3%	5.19	4.53	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dom Hamel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	17.2%	9.3%	3.7%	—	5.31	17.4%	8.0%	268	+0.09	—	—	—
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	76
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	73
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	73
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	73
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	14.6%	9.8%	2.3%	.311	4.01	17.3%	6.4%	44	-0.36	4.01	272	72
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	72
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	72
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	71
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	26	SP	4.65	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	278	71
Hiram Burgos R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	28	SP	4.08	16.3%	9.1%	2.2%	.330	4.94	19.3%	11.8%	62	+0.86	3.40	384	70
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	70
Jordan Pries R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	26	SP-	4.43	17.4%	8.2%	3.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	219	69
Octavio Acosta R 2019 · 4.19 FIP	28	SP	4.19	14.9%	8.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	333	68
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	68
Anthony Ranaudo R 2016 · 5.10 FIP	26	SP	5.10	15.5%	6.1%	4.6%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	314	68
Paul Clemens R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	28	SP	4.58	17.6%	9.1%	3.3%	.271	4.72	14.9%	3.9%	53	+0.14	4.58	345	68
Scott Carroll R 2014 · 4.35 FIP	29	SP-	4.35	11.2%	7.7%	2.2%	.296	4.52	11.9%	3.7%	248	+0.17	3.92	377	68
Caleb Boushley R 2022 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP	4.37	15.4%	8.7%	2.7%	.251	4.40	16.7%	10.3%	347	+0.03	3.05	790	68
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	68
Mike Augliera R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP-	4.27	12.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	114	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	138	17.3%	9.3%	1.46	5.21
Bill Grahame ('08-'10, 0 WAR*)	1.7	116	17.7%*	9.3%*	1.52*	5.11*
Bill Posedel ('38-'46, 1 WAR*)	3.4	136	16.9%*	8.8%*	1.33*	5.19*
Brandon Claussen ('06)	1.6	105	16.0%	8.5%	1.37	5.04
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Don Black ('43-'48, 0 WAR*)	4.0	133	17.4%*	10.4%*	1.28*	5.32*
Armando Galarraga ('12)	2.7	108	14.6%	9.6%	1.56	4.78