Luke Bell

P Birmingham Barons

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	33	0	49	3.65	2.49	27.0%	8.8%	—	K 20.4% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.62
2025	24	MIX2 levels	38	1	58	4.94	4.81	17.1%	10.9%	—	K 14.2% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.78
2026	25	MIX3 levels	18	0	32	7.39	4.68	18.9%	9.1%	—	K 9.9% · BB 12.1% · FIP 5.40
2027PROJ	26	MLBCWS	57	0	60	5.82	5.82	12.0%	13.1%	-0.8
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCWS	21	0	22	5.69	5.71	13.1%	12.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCWS	32	0	34	5.64	5.69	13.8%	12.7%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJulian Arballo (age 27) · Roman Phansalkar (age 26) · Tyler Mizenko (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 127

ERA5.82

FIP5.82

K%12.0%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%-1.1%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	6	0	5	26	9	2	0	0%	0.9	34.6%	7.7%	26.9%	0.0%	1.69	1.15	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	6	0	5	26	9	2	0	0%	0.9	34.6%	7.7%	26.9%	0.0%	1.69	0.85	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	49	204	55	18	2	0%	1.5	20.4%	9.9%	10.4%	1.8%	3.65	3.62	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	49	204	55	18	2	0%	1.5	20.4%	9.9%	10.4%	1.8%	3.65	3.62	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	49	204	55	18	2	0%	1.5	27.0%	8.8%	18.1%	1.0%	3.65	2.49	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	58	258	44	28	8	3%	1.5	14.2%	11.7%	2.5%	4.4%	4.94	5.78	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	58	258	44	28	8	3%	1.5	14.2%	11.7%	2.5%	4.4%	4.94	5.78	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	58	258	44	28	8	3%	1.5	17.1%	10.9%	6.2%	3.1%	4.94	4.81	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	32	143	27	13	5	0%	1.8	9.9%	12.1%	-2.2%	2.9%	7.39	5.40	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	32	143	27	13	5	0%	1.8	9.9%	12.1%	-2.2%	2.9%	7.39	5.40	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	32	143	27	13	5	0%	1.8	18.9%	9.1%	9.8%	3.5%	7.39	4.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CWS	57	0	60	253	30	33	8	0%	1.1	12.0%	13.1%	-1.1%	3.1%	5.82	5.82	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	56	0	59	247	32	32	8	0%	1.0	13.1%	12.8%	0.3%	3.1%	5.69	5.71	-0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	54	0	57	240	33	30	8	0%	1.1	13.8%	12.7%	1.1%	3.2%	5.64	5.69	-0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	21	0	22	93	12	12	3	0%	1.0	13.1%	12.8%	0.3%	3.1%	5.69	5.71	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	32	0	34	144	20	18	5	0%	1.1	13.8%	12.7%	1.1%	3.2%	5.64	5.69	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	236	32	30	7	0%	1.1	13.5%	12.7%	0.8%	3.2%	5.66	5.31	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	115	107	25	0%	1.1	13.5%	12.7%	0.8%	3.2%	5.66	5.31	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		95	1	145	631	101	70	19	1%	1.5	16.1%	11.0%	5.0%	3.0%	4.91	4.80	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	1	200	872	140	96	26	1%	1.5	16.1%	11.0%	5.0%	3.0%	4.91	4.80	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Bell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.82	12.0%	13.1%	3.1%	—	5.70	13.4%	0.7%	115	-0.12	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	87
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	86
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	85
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	85
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	84
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	84
Nate Bump R 2003 · 4.74 FIP	27	SU	4.74	10.2%	12.0%	1.8%	.244	4.27	12.5%	5.5%	112	-0.47	4.06	148	83
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	83
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	83
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	83
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	82
Jason Jester R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	26	SU	4.94	11.9%	9.4%	3.0%	.311	2.88	17.6%	12.5%	60	-2.06	2.48	229	82
Pat Light R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	11.8%	14.1%	1.4%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	172	82
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	81
Aaron Cohn R 2023 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	11.1%	10.7%	4.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	5.72	106	81
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	81
Marc Magliaro R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	26	SU	4.77	9.1%	10.1%	2.1%	.302	3.98	17.1%	10.6%	110	-0.79	3.94	125	80
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	80
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	80
Nick Mikolajchak R 2024 · 4.81 FIP	26	SU	4.81	13.7%	11.6%	2.5%	.286	6.79	13.1%	2.3%	42	+1.98	3.96	168	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	12.9%	12.8%	1.21	5.72
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*