Nick Avila — OGILVIE

Nick Avila P San Francisco Giants

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA4.32

FIP4.23

K%23.9%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%15.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p3222.8%

p6825.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.413

FB+0.5 (48%)

SI (13%)

CU (17%)

SL-1.4 (6%)

CT-3.4 (29%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	9	8	24	94	11	6	1	89%	2.7	8.0%	8.0%	-0.0%	1.5%	1.11	4.26	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Orange	9	8	24	94	11	6	1	89%	2.7	11.7%	6.4%	5.3%	1.1%	1.11	3.47	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	25	7	76	340	78	27	12	28%	3.0	17.7%	9.1%	8.5%	4.2%	6.51	5.07	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	25	7	76	340	78	27	12	28%	3.0	22.9%	7.9%	15.0%	3.5%	6.51	4.17	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	55	212	58	12	4	0%	1.2	21.6%	6.4%	15.2%	2.4%	1.14	3.38	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	55	212	58	12	4	0%	1.2	27.4%	5.7%	21.7%	1.9%	1.14	2.59	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	56	2	72	301	64	36	7	4%	1.3	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	2.4%	3.00	4.25	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	56	2	72	301	64	36	7	4%	1.3	21.3%	12.0%	9.3%	2.3%	3.00	4.09	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	30	140	34	13	4	8%	1.2	24.7%	8.5%	16.1%	3.0%	9.10	3.74	+0.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	30	140	34	13	4	8%	1.2	24.7%	8.5%	16.1%	3.0%	9.10	3.74	+0.3
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	2	30	140	34	13	4	8%	1.2	24.3%	9.3%	15.0%	2.9%	9.10	3.88	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	0	12	55	14	3	2	0%	1.5	25.5%	5.5%	20.0%	3.6%	8.49	3.70	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SF	12	0	13	55	13	5	2	0%	1.1	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.23	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SF	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	3.2%	4.41	4.47	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	SF	18	0	19	80	19	7	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	3.2%	4.41	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		26	0	31	135	33	10	5	0%	1.2	24.1%	7.7%	16.4%	3.4%	5.96	3.90	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		170	0	200	882	215	65	33	0%	1.2	24.1%	7.7%	16.4%	3.4%	5.96	3.90	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		162	19	257	1087	203	96	32	12%	1.6	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.16	4.27	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	15	200	845	158	75	25	12%	1.6	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.16	4.27	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Avila (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	23.9%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.47	23.1%	13.9%	20	+0.24	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	74
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	73
Tommy Nance R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	30	SU	3.96	24.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.228	3.41	24.1%	16.8%	99	-0.55	2.08	360	73
Aaron Barrett R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	23.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.246	4.56	19.9%	6.4%	38	+0.75	1.86	160	70
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	70
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	69
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	69
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	69
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	68
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	68
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	68
Yennier Cano R 2024 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.1%	9.2%	2.4%	.310	3.30	21.6%	13.7%	108	-0.10	2.43	381	67
Mike Fyhrie R 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	19.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.309	3.87	13.7%	4.4%	69	+0.79	3.08	173	67
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	67
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	67
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	67
Cory Gearrin R 2016 · 3.15 FIP	30	SU	3.15	22.8%	6.1%	2.2%	.279	3.72	21.2%	11.5%	181	+0.57	1.81	341	67
Aquilino López R 2005 · 3.10 FIP	30	SU	3.10	30.6%	8.3%	2.8%	.333	3.89	16.2%	10.5%	96	+0.79	3.10	207	67
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	67
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	67