Nick Avila
P
San Francisco Giants
+0.2
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA6.03
FIP4.39
xFIP3.61
SIERA3.34
K%23.0%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.4%
IP29
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p3222.8%
K%
p6825.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.413
FB+0.5 (48%)
SI (13%)
CU (17%)
SL-1.4 (6%)
CT-3.4 (29%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | 9 | 8 | 24 | 94 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 8.0% | 8.0% | 1.5% | 1.11 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 25 | 7 | 76 | 340 | 78 | 27 | 12 | 17.7% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 6.51 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 47 | 0 | 55 | 212 | 58 | 12 | 4 | 21.6% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 1.14 | 3.36 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 56 | 2 | 72 | 301 | 64 | 36 | 7 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.4% | 3.00 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 25 | 2 | 30 | 140 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 9.10 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | SF | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 6.03 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SF | 28 | — | 28 | 118 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 162 | 19 | 257 | 1087 | 205 | 103 | 32 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.35 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 126 | 15 | 200 | 845 | 159 | 80 | 25 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.35 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Avila (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.48 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 28 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 83 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.16 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.29 | 332 | 78 |
| Hunter Strickland R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.23 | 18.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.41 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 83 | +0.18 | 2.30 | 511 | 77 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 76 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.30 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.76 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.46 | 1.69 | 468 | 76 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 75 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 75 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 75 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.46 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 4.7% | .240 | 4.76 | 16.2% | 2.5% | 92 | -0.70 | 3.58 | 291 | 75 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 75 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 73 |
| Rafael Montero R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.57 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .222 | 3.34 | 24.6% | 16.3% | 185 | -0.23 | 2.40 | 643 | 73 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 73 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 73 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 73 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 73 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 72 |
| Jacob Barnes R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.11 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 4.7% | .303 | 3.52 | 23.1% | 15.1% | 101 | -1.59 | 1.76 | 551 | 72 |
| Will Harris R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.47 | 24.6% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .190 | 2.46 | 28.0% | 22.8% | 166 | -1.01 | 2.15 | 315 | 72 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.83 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 3.54 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.29 | 3.54 | 348 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.