Cole Waites prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Cole Waites P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%21.7%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

SL-2.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Black	9	7	17	81	28	13	1	78%	1.9	23.5%	20.1%	3.4%	1.7%	6.23	4.60	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Black	9	7	17	81	28	13	1	78%	1.9	34.6%	16.0%	18.5%	1.2%	6.23	2.87	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	0	13	47	31	6	0	0%	1.0	66.0%	12.8%	53.2%	0.0%	0.67	-0.85	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	0	13	47	31	6	0	0%	1.0	66.0%	12.8%	53.2%	0.0%	0.67	-0.20	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	45	0	47	197	80	25	2	0%	1.1	35.8%	13.9%	21.9%	0.8%	2.09	2.26	+1.3
2022	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	45	0	47	197	80	25	2	0%	1.1	40.6%	12.7%	27.9%	1.0%	2.09	1.85	+1.5
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	3	33	159	34	29	3	9%	0.9	19.1%	16.9%	2.2%	2.2%	6.82	4.81	-0.1
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	3	33	159	34	29	3	9%	0.9	19.1%	16.9%	2.2%	2.2%	6.82	4.81	-0.1
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	3	33	159	34	29	3	9%	0.9	21.4%	18.2%	3.1%	1.9%	6.82	4.86	-0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	5	18	3	2	0	0%	0.9	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	5	18	3	2	0	0%	0.9	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	5	18	3	2	0	0%	0.9	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	0	8	40	6	6	1	0%	0.8	15.0%	15.0%	0.0%	2.5%	6.75	5.47	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	13	0	13	63	12	12	3	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	5.40	—	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	13	0	13	63	12	12	3	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	5.40	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A RAW	DET	2	0	2	8	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	12.5%	-12.5%	0.0%	0.00	4.68	—
2026	28	A+ RAW	DET	2	0	2	8	4	2	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.04	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	DET	9	0	9	47	8	9	3	0%	1.0	17.0%	19.1%	-2.1%	6.4%	7.71	7.59	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.7%	9.9%	3.1%	4.80	4.85	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.7%	9.9%	3.1%	4.80	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	15	71	13	10	2	0%	0.9	17.9%	13.6%	4.3%	2.8%	5.82	4.83	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		221	0	200	925	169	130	26	0%	0.9	17.9%	13.6%	4.3%	2.8%	5.82	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		120	10	129	565	166	90	9	8%	1.1	29.4%	16.0%	13.4%	1.7%	3.98	3.56	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		186	16	200	876	257	140	15	8%	1.1	29.4%	16.0%	13.4%	1.7%	3.98	3.56	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Waites (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	21.7%	11.8%	3.0%	—	4.85	21.6%	9.9%	20	+0.08	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	82
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	82
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	82
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	81
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	80
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	80
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	80
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	80
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	80
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	79
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	79
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	79