Dylan Spacke prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Dylan Spacke P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 194 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%19.5%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	12	0	20	83	23	3	0	0%	1.7	18.8%	4.5%	14.3%	0.0%	3.10	2.08	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	12	0	20	83	23	3	0	0%	1.7	27.7%	3.6%	24.1%	0.0%	3.10	1.28	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	29	4	67	280	83	22	7	14%	2.3	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	3.5%	3.07	4.24	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	29	4	67	280	83	22	7	14%	2.3	29.6%	7.9%	21.8%	2.5%	3.07	2.97	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	32	5	65	301	60	38	8	16%	2.0	16.1%	13.9%	2.3%	3.2%	5.65	5.24	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	32	5	65	301	60	38	8	16%	2.0	19.9%	12.6%	7.3%	2.7%	5.65	4.60	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	30	0	52	221	37	27	4	0%	1.7	13.6%	13.4%	0.1%	2.1%	3.46	4.79	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	30	0	52	221	37	27	4	0%	1.7	13.6%	13.4%	0.1%	2.1%	3.46	4.79	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	30	0	52	221	37	27	4	0%	1.7	16.7%	12.2%	4.5%	1.8%	3.46	4.23	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.5%	11.1%	8.4%	3.0%	4.86	4.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BOS	33	0	34	145	29	16	5	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.1%	8.5%	3.1%	4.88	4.93	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	BOS	10	0	11	46	9	5	1	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.1%	8.5%	3.1%	4.88	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	9	5	1	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.1%	8.5%	3.1%	4.88	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	93	19	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.1%	8.5%	3.1%	4.88	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		103	9	205	885	158	101	24	9%	2.0	17.9%	11.4%	6.5%	2.7%	4.00	4.52	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	9	200	863	154	98	23	9%	2.0	17.9%	11.4%	6.5%	2.7%	4.00	4.52	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Spacke (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	19.5%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.93	19.6%	8.5%	34	+0.07	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	84
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	82
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	82
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	82
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	80
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	80
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	80
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	80
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	80
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	79
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	79
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	79
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	79
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	35	19.6%	11.1%	1.17	4.87
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71