Ian Churchill — OGILVIE

Ian Churchill P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 10 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 122

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%22.0%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	8	0	12	48	18	5	0	0%	1.5	37.5%	10.4%	27.1%	0.0%	0.75	1.25	—
2022	23	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	8	0	12	48	18	5	0	0%	1.5	37.5%	10.4%	27.1%	0.0%	0.75	1.35	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	41	165	52	25	0	0%	1.3	23.8%	17.7%	6.1%	0.0%	0.89	3.33	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	41	165	52	25	0	0%	1.3	31.5%	15.2%	16.4%	0.0%	0.89	2.39	—
2024	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	19	0	17	87	18	14	0	0%	0.9	16.8%	17.7%	-0.9%	0.0%	9.72	3.93	—
2024	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	19	0	17	87	18	14	0	0%	0.9	16.8%	17.7%	-0.9%	0.0%	9.72	3.93	—
2024	25	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	19	0	17	87	18	14	0	0%	0.9	20.7%	16.1%	4.6%	0.0%	9.72	3.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TOR	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.65	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	19	0	20	84	19	9	3	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.2%	10.7%	3.1%	4.70	4.75	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.2%	10.7%	3.1%	4.70	4.75	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.2%	10.7%	3.1%	4.70	4.37	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.2%	10.7%	3.1%	4.70	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		58	0	69	300	72	50	0	0%	1.2	23.9%	16.5%	7.4%	0.0%	2.99	3.17	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	0	200	865	207	143	0	0%	1.2	23.9%	16.5%	7.4%	0.0%	2.99	3.17	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Churchill (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	22.0%	11.2%	2.9%	—	4.75	21.9%	10.7%	20	+0.10	—	—	—
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	82
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	82
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	81
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	79
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	79
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	79
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	78
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	78
Kelly Wunsch L 2000 · 3.65 FIP	28	SU	3.65	19.7%	10.8%	1.5%	.261	4.17	17.6%	5.9%	90	+0.52	3.36	175	78
David Purcey L 2010 · 3.60 FIP	28	SU	3.60	22.4%	9.8%	2.1%	.245	4.29	16.7%	2.7%	59	+0.69	3.60	206	78
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	78
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	77
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	77
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	77
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	77
Armando Almanza L 2001 · 5.21 FIP	28	SU	5.21	25.3%	14.0%	4.5%	.260	4.73	25.3%	14.7%	108	-0.48	2.90	211	76
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	76
Hector Mercado L 2002 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	23.1%	13.3%	1.2%	.278	6.59	17.4%	3.4%	19	+3.12	3.47	125	76
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	75
Zac Rosscup L 2015 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	24.6%	11.0%	4.4%	.296	2.85	29.5%	21.7%	40	-1.99	2.56	173	75