Austin Kitchen — OGILVIE

Austin Kitchen P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 29 LHP 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 117

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%13.6%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD4545

K†3030

SI (34%)

CU (11%)

SL-0.9 (23%)

CH-1.5 (17%)

FB-4.6 (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	19	8	51	229	38	14	3	42%	2.7	12.3%	7.2%	5.1%	1.4%	4.97	3.74	—
2021	24	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	19	8	51	229	38	14	3	42%	2.7	16.6%	6.1%	10.5%	1.3%	4.97	3.20	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	4	81	335	71	23	15	11%	2.3	16.5%	7.8%	8.7%	4.6%	3.32	5.24	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	4	81	335	71	23	15	11%	2.3	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	4.5%	3.32	4.60	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	61	263	54	16	5	0%	1.3	17.3%	6.5%	10.8%	1.8%	4.45	3.47	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	61	263	54	16	5	0%	1.3	17.3%	6.5%	10.8%	1.8%	4.45	3.47	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	61	263	54	16	5	0%	1.3	20.5%	6.1%	14.4%	1.9%	4.45	3.18	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	59	261	37	18	4	2%	1.4	12.0%	6.3%	5.8%	1.6%	5.01	3.73	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	59	261	37	18	4	2%	1.4	12.0%	6.3%	5.8%	1.6%	5.01	3.73	+0.6
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	1	59	261	37	18	4	2%	1.4	14.2%	6.9%	7.3%	1.5%	5.01	3.64	+0.6
2025	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	48	1	70	293	53	18	5	2%	1.5	15.0%	5.5%	9.5%	1.6%	3.36	3.39	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	48	1	70	293	53	18	5	2%	1.5	15.0%	5.5%	9.5%	1.6%	3.36	3.39	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	48	1	70	293	53	18	5	2%	1.5	18.1%	6.1%	11.9%	1.7%	3.36	3.29	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	1	7	42	4	3	1	25%	1.8	9.5%	7.1%	2.4%	2.4%	14.14	5.10	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	SEA	6	0	6	25	3	2	1	0%	1.0	13.6%	6.0%	7.6%	2.4%	4.39	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SEA	61	0	64	272	39	18	7	0%	1.1	14.2%	6.6%	7.6%	2.6%	4.49	4.56	-0.0
2028	31	MLB MLE	SEA	57	0	60	254	37	18	7	0%	1.1	14.5%	7.2%	7.3%	2.9%	4.63	4.74	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	SEA	23	0	24	101	14	7	3	0%	1.0	14.2%	6.6%	7.6%	2.6%	4.49	4.56	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	SEA	31	0	33	139	20	10	4	0%	1.1	14.5%	7.2%	7.3%	2.9%	4.63	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	1	64	282	39	20	8	2%	1.1	13.7%	7.0%	6.7%	2.7%	5.62	4.32	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	3	200	883	122	63	25	2%	1.1	13.7%	7.0%	6.7%	2.7%	5.62	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		189	14	322	1381	204	92	32	7%	1.7	14.8%	6.7%	8.1%	2.3%	4.11	3.98	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	9	200	859	127	57	20	7%	1.7	14.8%	6.7%	8.1%	2.3%	4.11	3.98	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Kitchen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	13.6%	6.0%	2.4%	—	4.65	14.3%	7.4%	125	+0.26	—	—	—
Franklin Morales L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	29	SU	3.37	15.9%	5.4%	1.7%	.271	4.02	15.0%	7.0%	39	+0.65	3.37	101	82
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	80
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	152	80
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	80
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	79
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	79
Jeremy Bleich L 2016 · 4.35 FIP	29	SU	4.35	10.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.333	3.64	19.1%	13.1%	146	-0.71	3.20	241	78
Brian Duensing L 2015 · 4.47 FIP	32	SU	4.47	11.5%	8.1%	2.4%	.252	3.76	20.2%	11.8%	137	-0.71	2.57	198	77
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	76
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	76
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	75
James Russell L 2015 · 3.71 FIP	29	SU	3.71	13.5%	4.7%	2.1%	.331	4.20	14.1%	8.7%	111	+0.49	2.66	233	75
Caleb Thielbar L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	28	SU	4.15	11.8%	10.8%	1.2%	.253	2.68	19.0%	16.6%	57	-1.47	2.22	505	74
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	73
David Huff L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	30	SW	3.40	17.1%	3.8%	2.3%	.271	4.06	19.5%	14.6%	52	+0.66	3.40	158	73
Jake McGee L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	18.5%	7.3%	3.9%	.329	3.93	22.1%	15.6%	150	-0.67	1.39	350	73
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2019 · 3.68 FIP	29	SU	3.68	17.1%	5.3%	2.5%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	322	73
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.80	223	72
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	72
Rodolfo Aguilar L 2017 · 3.20 FIP	28	SU	3.20	15.1%	7.9%	0.7%	.339	5.46	8.1%	-5.7%	15	+2.26	2.93	115	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	14.1%	6.6%	1.01	4.50
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57