Austin Kitchen
P
Tacoma Rainiers
+0.5
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.19
FIP4.19
xFIP4.61
SIERA4.19
K%18.1%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%10.6%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL6060
CMD4545
K†4040
SI (34%)
CU (11%)
SL-0.9 (23%)
CH-1.5 (17%)
FB-4.6 (49%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 8 | 51 | 229 | 38 | 14 | 3 | 12.3% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 4.97 | 3.72 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 36 | 4 | 81 | 335 | 71 | 23 | 15 | 16.5% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 3.32 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 45 | 0 | 61 | 263 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 17.3% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 4.45 | 3.48 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 41 | 1 | 59 | 261 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 12.8% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 5.01 | 3.79 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 48 | 1 | 70 | 293 | 53 | 18 | 5 | 15.9% | 6.5% | 1.5% | 3.36 | 3.41 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 17.3% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 4.32 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 17.4% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 35 | 18 | 6 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 189 | 14 | 322 | 1381 | 209 | 98 | 32 | 15.1% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 4.11 | 3.98 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 118 | 9 | 200 | 859 | 130 | 61 | 20 | 15.1% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 4.11 | 3.98 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Kitchen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 2.3% | — | 4.42 | 17.5% | 9.6% | 168 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.33 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.6% | .271 | 4.03 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.33 | 101 | 86 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 84 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 82 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 82 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 82 |
| Colt Hynes L 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 82 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 81 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.50 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 188 | 81 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 81 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.88 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 200 | 80 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 79 |
| Kraig Sitton L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.89 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 166 | 79 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.29 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .290 | 4.54 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.25 | 2.82 | 414 | 79 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 79 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 78 |
| David Huff L 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.48 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | .271 | 4.07 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.59 | 3.48 | 158 | 77 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.72 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .329 | 3.96 | 22.1% | 15.6% | 150 | -0.76 | 1.36 | 350 | 77 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 77 |
| Roy Merritt L 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .293 | 3.92 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | +0.00 | 3.92 | 129 | 77 |
| Duane Below L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.65 | 12.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | .266 | 4.56 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 140 | +0.91 | 3.65 | 189 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.