Austin Kitchen
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 29
LHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 68 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 119
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%14.3%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%7.5%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (34%)
CU (11%)
SL-0.9 (23%)
CH-1.5 (17%)
FB-4.6 (49%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 8 | 51 | 229 | 38 | 14 | 3 | 42% | 2.7 | 12.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 4.97 | 3.63 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 8 | 51 | 229 | 38 | 14 | 3 | 42% | 2.7 | 16.6% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 1.3% | 4.97 | 3.20 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 4 | 81 | 335 | 71 | 23 | 15 | 11% | 2.3 | 16.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 3.32 | 4.95 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 4 | 81 | 335 | 71 | 23 | 15 | 11% | 2.3 | 21.2% | 6.9% | 14.3% | 4.5% | 3.32 | 4.60 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 61 | 263 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.3% | 6.5% | 10.8% | 1.8% | 4.45 | 3.43 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 61 | 263 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.5% | 6.1% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 4.45 | 3.18 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 1 | 59 | 261 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 2% | 1.4 | 12.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 1.4% | 5.01 | 3.71 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 1 | 59 | 261 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 2% | 1.4 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 5.01 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 48 | 1 | 70 | 293 | 53 | 18 | 5 | 2% | 1.5 | 15.9% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 1.3% | 3.36 | 3.30 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 48 | 1 | 70 | 293 | 53 | 18 | 5 | 2% | 1.5 | 18.1% | 6.1% | 11.9% | 1.7% | 3.36 | 3.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 65 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 2.3% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 4.48 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 38 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 35 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 4.80 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 4.48 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 4.80 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 94 | 1 | 101 | 441 | 64 | 35 | 12 | 1% | 1.1 | 14.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 5.31 | 4.40 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 2 | 200 | 869 | 126 | 69 | 24 | 1% | 1.1 | 14.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 5.31 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 189 | 14 | 322 | 1381 | 209 | 98 | 29 | 7% | 1.7 | 15.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 4.11 | 3.86 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 118 | 9 | 200 | 859 | 130 | 61 | 18 | 7% | 1.7 | 15.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 4.11 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Kitchen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 2.3% | — | 4.73 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 180 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Colt Hynes L 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 82 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 82 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.36 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% | .271 | 4.06 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.36 | 101 | 81 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 80 |
| Kraig Sitton L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.04 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 166 | 79 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 79 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 79 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 78 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 10.1% | 7.8% | 1.7% | .333 | 3.67 | 19.1% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.49 | 3.21 | 241 | 78 |
| Brian Duensing L 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.70 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.76 | 2.59 | 198 | 77 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 77 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.22 | 11.8% | 10.8% | 1.4% | .253 | 2.74 | 19.0% | 16.6% | 57 | -1.48 | 2.22 | 487 | 76 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 3.4% | .329 | 3.67 | 22.1% | 15.6% | 150 | -0.64 | 1.52 | 350 | 76 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 74 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.64 | 13.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.31 | 14.1% | 8.7% | 111 | +0.67 | 2.69 | 233 | 74 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .300 | 3.44 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -1.12 | 2.81 | 223 | 73 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 73 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 17.1% | 5.3% | 2.4% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 322 | 73 |
| David Huff L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 72 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.38 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.43 | 2.90 | 414 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 62 | 14.8% | 7.5% | 1.02 | 4.56 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |