Carlo Reyes

P South Bend Cubs

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 212 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	27	1	31	6.32	5.05	24.6%	15.5%	—	K 17.9% · BB 19.0% · FIP 6.34
2024	26	MIX2 levels	28	1	40	1.36	1.69	34.6%	6.2%	—	K 27.5% · BB 6.9% · FIP 2.60
2025	27	A+CHC	3	0	4	17.18	8.01	9.1%	13.6%	—	K 9.1% · BB 13.6% · FIP 6.55
2027PROJ	29	MLBCHC	22	0	23	4.09	4.09	24.6%	8.3%	0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	30	MLBCHC	7	0	7	4.22	4.29	24.2%	8.7%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsDiego Moreno (age 29) · Ryan Brasier (age 28) · Neil Wagner (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.09

FIP4.09

K%24.6%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%16.3%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	14	14	62	247	72	13	2	100%	4.5	19.8%	6.6%	13.2%	1.1%	2.45	2.88	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	14	14	62	247	72	13	2	100%	4.5	29.1%	5.3%	23.9%	0.8%	2.45	1.83	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	3	60	254	82	23	7	9%	1.7	25.2%	10.2%	15.0%	3.6%	2.40	4.25	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	3	60	254	82	23	7	9%	1.7	32.3%	9.1%	23.2%	2.8%	2.40	3.03	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	6	56	236	62	18	5	21%	2.0	20.4%	8.6%	11.7%	2.9%	3.54	4.06	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	6	56	236	62	18	5	21%	2.0	26.3%	7.6%	18.6%	2.1%	3.54	3.01	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	31	142	35	22	5	4%	1.2	17.9%	19.0%	-1.1%	4.3%	6.32	6.34	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	31	142	35	22	5	4%	1.2	24.6%	15.5%	9.2%	3.5%	6.32	5.05	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	40	162	56	10	2	4%	1.4	27.5%	6.9%	20.7%	1.7%	1.36	2.60	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	40	162	56	10	2	4%	1.4	27.5%	6.9%	20.7%	1.7%	1.36	2.60	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	1	40	162	56	10	2	4%	1.4	34.6%	6.2%	28.4%	1.2%	1.36	1.69	—
2025	27	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	3	0	4	22	2	3	1	0%	1.2	9.1%	13.6%	-4.5%	4.5%	17.18	6.55	—
2025	27	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	3	0	4	22	2	3	1	0%	1.2	9.1%	13.6%	-4.5%	4.5%	17.18	6.55	—
2025	27	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	3	0	4	22	2	3	1	0%	1.2	9.1%	13.6%	-4.5%	4.5%	17.18	8.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CHC	22	0	23	97	24	8	3	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.3%	16.3%	3.0%	4.09	4.09	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	21	0	22	92	22	8	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.7%	15.4%	3.2%	4.22	4.29	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.7%	15.4%	3.2%	4.22	4.29	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	7	28	7	2	1	0%	1.1	24.2%	8.7%	15.4%	3.2%	4.22	3.91	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	213	61	30	0%	1.1	24.2%	8.7%	15.4%	3.2%	4.22	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		135	25	253	1063	233	104	29	19%	1.9	21.9%	9.8%	12.2%	2.7%	3.20	3.96	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	20	200	840	184	82	23	19%	1.9	21.9%	9.8%	12.2%	2.7%	3.20	3.96	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlo Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.09	24.6%	8.3%	3.0%	—	4.29	24.2%	15.4%	22	+0.20	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	81
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	80
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	79
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	78
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	77
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	77
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	77
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	77
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	76
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	75
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	75
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	74
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	74
Michael Flynn R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	27	SU	3.99	27.6%	8.3%	3.9%	.277	4.68	16.2%	3.7%	50	+0.69	3.89	168	74
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	74
Mike Fyhrie R 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	19.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.309	3.87	13.7%	4.4%	69	+0.79	3.08	173	74
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	74
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	73
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	73