Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 10 | 9 | 35 | 159 | 32 | 15 | 2 | 90% | 3.5 | 13.7% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 4.93 | 4.40 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 10 | 9 | 35 | 159 | 32 | 15 | 2 | 90% | 3.5 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 1.3% | 4.93 | 3.30 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 53 | 236 | 57 | 26 | 1 | 77% | 4.1 | 18.3% | 13.2% | 5.0% | 0.6% | 4.39 | 3.56 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 53 | 236 | 57 | 26 | 1 | 77% | 4.1 | 24.2% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 0.4% | 4.39 | 2.67 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 67 | 277 | 82 | 28 | 2 | 56% | 3.7 | 23.1% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 0.9% | 2.55 | 3.10 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 67 | 277 | 82 | 28 | 2 | 56% | 3.7 | 29.6% | 10.1% | 19.5% | 0.7% | 2.55 | 2.29 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 32 | 17 | 107 | 459 | 103 | 44 | 8 | 53% | 3.3 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 2.2% | 2.94 | 4.08 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 32 | 17 | 107 | 459 | 103 | 44 | 8 | 53% | 3.3 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 1.7% | 2.94 | 3.38 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 53 | 2 | 73 | 297 | 108 | 32 | 2 | 4% | 1.4 | 31.4% | 10.5% | 20.9% | 0.5% | 2.10 | 2.06 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 53 | 2 | 73 | 297 | 108 | 32 | 2 | 4% | 1.4 | 36.4% | 10.8% | 25.6% | 0.7% | 2.10 | 1.81 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 48 | 221 | 54 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 6.38 | 3.60 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 48 | 221 | 54 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 14.9% | 2.3% | 6.38 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 66 | 287 | 65 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 1.2% | 2.85 | 3.10 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 66 | 287 | 65 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 1.4% | 2.85 | 3.10 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 37 | 0 | 36 | 164 | 29 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 12.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 4.95 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIN | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 36 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 4.12 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIN | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 36 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 4.12 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 80 | 346 | 65 | 39 | 8 | — | — | 18.7% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 4.31 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 68 | 285 | 65 | 39 | 8 | — | — | 22.8% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 5.30 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 60 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 50 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 4.61 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 56 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 45 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 4.78 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 48 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 4.61 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 43 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 4.78 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 255 | 0 | 272 | 1173 | 234 | 131 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 4.42 | 4.02 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 864 | 172 | 96 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 4.42 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 259 | 48 | 486 | 2100 | 446 | 229 | 31 | 19% | 1.9 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 1.5% | 3.54 | 3.49 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 107 | 20 | 200 | 865 | 184 | 94 | 13 | 19% | 1.9 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 1.5% | 3.54 | 3.49 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kody Funderburk (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.17 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 2.2% | — | 4.77 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 122 | +0.60 | — | — | — |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.25 | 16.3% | 11.8% | 1.9% | .345 | 4.05 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 169 | -0.20 | 3.03 | 299 | 78 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 76 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 76 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 75 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .377 | 4.98 | 22.2% | 15.9% | 115 | +1.25 | 3.47 | 315 | 74 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .346 | 3.67 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 100 | +0.05 | 2.52 | 430 | 74 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 73 |
| Colt Hynes L 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 71 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 71 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 71 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 71 |
| Dan Runzler L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 70 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 70 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.17 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 0.4% | .304 | 4.18 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 127 | +1.01 | 3.09 | 244 | 70 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.34 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .275 | 5.22 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.88 | 269 | 69 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 69 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 69 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 69 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 68 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 19.5% | 11.1% | 0.93 | 4.54 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |