Zach Greene prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Zach Greene P Somerset Patriots

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%20.7%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	12	0	16	63	22	4	0	0%	1.3	23.7%	7.9%	15.8%	0.0%	1.69	2.10	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	12	0	16	63	22	4	0	0%	1.3	34.9%	6.3%	28.6%	0.0%	1.69	1.10	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	60	238	91	21	6	0%	1.8	30.4%	9.9%	20.5%	3.0%	3.17	3.41	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	60	238	91	21	6	0%	1.8	38.2%	8.8%	29.4%	2.5%	3.17	2.41	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	48	4	68	288	96	32	11	8%	1.4	29.3%	11.7%	17.7%	4.2%	3.42	4.39	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	48	4	68	288	96	32	11	8%	1.4	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	3.8%	3.42	3.79	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	4	33	148	31	22	5	16%	1.3	16.3%	14.9%	1.4%	2.6%	5.51	5.01	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	4	33	148	31	22	5	16%	1.3	16.3%	14.9%	1.4%	2.6%	5.51	5.01	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	4	33	148	31	22	5	16%	1.3	20.9%	14.9%	6.1%	3.4%	5.51	5.21	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	2	0	2	7	2	1	0	0%	0.8	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.50	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	2	0	2	7	2	1	0	0%	0.8	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.50	—
2025	28	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	2	0	2	7	2	1	0	0%	0.8	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.50	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.7%	10.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYY	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	20.7%	11.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.82	4.89	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYY	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.82	4.89	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.82	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	96	32	0%	1.1	20.7%	11.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.82	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		121	8	178	744	198	85	23	7%	1.5	26.6%	11.4%	15.2%	3.1%	3.53	3.99	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	9	200	834	222	95	26	7%	1.5	26.6%	11.4%	15.2%	3.1%	3.53	3.99	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Greene (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.89	20.7%	9.6%	20	+0.14	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	88
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	85
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	84
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	82
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	81
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	79
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	79
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	78
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	78
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	78
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	77
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	77
Kevin Gryboski R 2003 · 3.67 FIP	29	SU	3.67	16.8%	8.9%	1.6%	.295	3.92	9.4%	0.2%	82	+0.25	3.67	178	77
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	77