Troy Watson — OGILVIE

Troy Watson P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%18.2%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	9	6	27	102	20	8	1	67%	3.0	13.3%	9.8%	3.5%	1.4%	1.67	3.97	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	9	6	27	102	20	8	1	67%	3.0	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	1.0%	1.67	2.99	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	98	410	49	38	5	80%	4.9	8.9%	11.1%	-2.2%	1.5%	3.32	4.60	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	16	98	410	49	38	5	80%	4.9	12.0%	9.3%	2.7%	1.2%	3.32	3.93	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	23.1%	15.4%	7.7%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	23.1%	15.4%	7.7%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	7	29	122	39	10	0	44%	1.8	28.2%	5.8%	22.5%	0.0%	2.79	1.44	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	7	29	122	39	10	0	44%	1.8	32.0%	8.2%	23.8%	0.0%	2.79	1.44	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	60	275	54	35	4	0%	1.4	15.7%	14.4%	1.3%	2.0%	4.83	4.71	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	60	275	54	35	4	0%	1.4	15.7%	14.4%	1.3%	2.0%	4.83	4.71	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	60	275	54	35	4	0%	1.4	19.6%	12.7%	6.9%	1.5%	4.83	3.92	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	36	15	75	372	81	49	19	42%	2.1	18.1%	11.9%	6.2%	7.1%	7.53	6.97	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	36	15	75	372	81	49	19	42%	2.1	18.1%	11.9%	6.2%	7.1%	7.53	6.97	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	36	15	75	372	81	49	19	42%	2.1	21.8%	13.2%	8.6%	5.1%	7.53	6.18	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	14	105	424	97	37	10	39%	2.9	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	2.9%	2.75	4.23	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	14	105	424	97	37	10	39%	2.9	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	2.9%	2.75	4.23	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	14	105	424	97	37	10	39%	2.9	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.4%	2.75	3.55	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	29	13	79	319	61	25	8	45%	2.7	15.9%	6.2%	9.7%	3.2%	2.86	4.28	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	29	13	79	319	61	25	8	45%	2.7	15.9%	6.2%	9.7%	3.2%	2.86	4.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	A RAW	SEA	1	1	1	7	3	1	0	100%	1.3	42.9%	14.3%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.29	—
2026	29	A+ RAW	SEA	3	3	9	35	5	5	0	100%	3.0	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	1.00	3.70	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	SEA	25	9	68	277	53	19	8	36%	2.7	19.1%	6.9%	12.3%	2.9%	3.16	3.94	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	SEA	10	0	11	44	8	5	2	0%	1.1	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	3.7%	5.30	5.30	-0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	SEA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	3.7%	5.30	5.30	-0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	89	363	69	30	10	—	—	19.0%	8.1%	10.9%	2.7%	3.15	4.40	+0.4
FULL	29	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	1	4	1	0	0	—	—	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	3.7%	5.30	4.92	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SEA	112	0	117	495	90	51	19	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	3.9%	5.30	5.37	-1.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	SEA	104	0	109	461	84	48	19	0%	1.1	18.1%	10.5%	7.7%	4.0%	5.38	5.49	-1.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	SEA	41	0	43	182	33	19	7	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	3.9%	5.30	5.37	-0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	SEA	57	0	60	253	46	26	10	0%	1.1	18.1%	10.5%	7.7%	4.0%	5.38	5.49	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		99	0	104	441	80	46	17	0%	1.1	18.2%	10.4%	7.8%	4.0%	5.35	5.06	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	153	88	33	0%	1.1	18.2%	10.4%	7.8%	4.0%	5.35	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		190	72	475	2037	328	206	62	38%	2.5	16.1%	10.1%	6.0%	3.0%	3.83	4.69	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	30	200	858	138	87	26	38%	2.5	16.1%	10.1%	6.0%	3.0%	3.83	4.69	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Troy Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	18.2%	10.3%	3.7%	—	5.43	18.2%	7.8%	226	+0.13	—	—	—
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	88
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	83
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	74
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	74
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	73
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	71
Seth Simmons R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	28	SW	4.27	18.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.262	6.20	13.3%	2.4%	54	+1.93	3.07	251	71
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	71
Donovan Hand R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SW	4.30	11.1%	4.3%	2.9%	.305	4.56	12.5%	5.7%	140	+0.26	4.30	237	71
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	70
Joel De La Cruz R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	14.4%	8.6%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	205	70
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	70
Murphy Smith R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SW	4.32	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	.267	4.57	13.6%	4.3%	63	+0.25	3.16	300	70
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	70
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SW	4.12	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	107	70
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	29	SU	5.54	15.4%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	69
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	69
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	69
Warwick Saupold R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	28	SW	4.82	13.7%	7.6%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	389	67
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	114	18.2%	10.3%	1.50	5.33
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19