Troy Watson
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 127
ERA5.65
FIP5.65
K%18.9%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%7.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 9 | 6 | 27 | 102 | 20 | 8 | 1 | 67% | 3.0 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.67 | 3.97 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 9 | 6 | 27 | 102 | 20 | 8 | 1 | 67% | 3.0 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 1.0% | 1.67 | 2.99 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 16 | 98 | 410 | 49 | 38 | 5 | 80% | 4.9 | 8.9% | 11.1% | -2.2% | 1.4% | 3.32 | 4.52 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 16 | 98 | 410 | 49 | 38 | 5 | 80% | 4.9 | 12.0% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 3.32 | 3.93 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 7 | 29 | 122 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 44% | 1.8 | 28.2% | 5.8% | 22.5% | 0.0% | 2.79 | 1.44 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 7 | 29 | 122 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 44% | 1.8 | 32.0% | 8.2% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 2.79 | 1.44 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 60 | 275 | 54 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.7% | 14.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 4.83 | 4.71 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 60 | 275 | 54 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 1.5% | 4.83 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 36 | 15 | 75 | 372 | 81 | 49 | 19 | 42% | 2.1 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 7.53 | 8.51 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 36 | 15 | 75 | 372 | 81 | 49 | 19 | 42% | 2.1 | 21.8% | 13.2% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 7.53 | 6.18 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 14 | 105 | 424 | 97 | 37 | 10 | 39% | 2.9 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 2.75 | 4.43 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 14 | 105 | 424 | 97 | 37 | 10 | 39% | 2.9 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 14.2% | 2.4% | 2.75 | 3.55 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 15 | 12 | 56 | 228 | 39 | 20 | 7 | 80% | 3.8 | 14.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.88 | 5.13 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 30 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 5.65 | 5.65 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | DET | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 5.65 | 5.65 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | DET | — | — | 121 | 502 | 91 | 50 | 19 | — | — | 18.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 4.36 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | DET | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 18.9% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 5.65 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | DET | 112 | 0 | 117 | 495 | 93 | 54 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 5.61 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | DET | 104 | 0 | 109 | 461 | 86 | 51 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 5.67 | 5.78 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | DET | 96 | 0 | 101 | 427 | 79 | 48 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 5.79 | 5.93 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | DET | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 34 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 5.61 | 5.68 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | DET | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 47 | 28 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 5.67 | 5.78 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | DET | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 53 | 32 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 5.79 | 5.93 | -1.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 165 | 1 | 178 | 753 | 140 | 84 | 34 | 1% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 5.70 | 5.43 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 2 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 94 | 38 | 1% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 5.70 | 5.43 | -0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 176 | 71 | 453 | 1946 | 317 | 214 | 71 | 40% | 2.6 | 16.3% | 11.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.88 | 5.13 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 31 | 200 | 860 | 140 | 94 | 32 | 40% | 2.6 | 16.3% | 11.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.88 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Troy Watson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.65 | 18.9% | 11.0% | 4.3% | — | 5.79 | 18.7% | 7.6% | 328 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 85 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 78 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.39 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 71 |
| Jason Berken R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 69 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 69 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 69 |
| Jacob Turner R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 68 |
| Brad Allen R 2024 · 6.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.07 | 14.7% | 13.2% | 4.6% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 149 | 68 |
| Joel De La Cruz R 2024 · 4.47 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.47 | 14.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 205 | 67 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 67 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 67 |
| Aaron Brooks R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.78 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 4.0% | .281 | 4.30 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 70 | -0.48 | 3.61 | 879 | 66 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 340 | 65 |
| David Griffin R 2024 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 65 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .267 | 4.47 | 13.6% | 4.3% | 63 | -0.07 | 3.14 | 300 | 65 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.48 | 14.0% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .335 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 43 | -0.06 | 4.23 | 241 | 64 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 64 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 64 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 63 |
| Colin Bates R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 113 | 18.7% | 11.1% | 1.73 | 5.68 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Matt Cain ('17) | 3 | 91 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.51 | 5.58 |