Tim Brennan — OGILVIE

Tim Brennan P Round Rock Express

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 212 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 25 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%16.4%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	124	499	82	14	5	100%	5.9	12.3%	3.3%	9.0%	1.1%	3.84	3.08	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	124	499	82	14	5	100%	5.9	16.4%	2.8%	13.6%	1.0%	3.84	2.64	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	26	112	15	10	1	88%	3.2	10.0%	10.5%	-0.4%	1.0%	3.46	4.14	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	7	26	112	15	10	1	88%	3.2	13.4%	8.9%	4.5%	0.9%	3.46	3.60	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	19	13	75	299	55	13	9	68%	3.9	14.9%	4.8%	10.1%	3.9%	2.76	4.62	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	19	13	75	299	55	13	9	68%	3.9	18.4%	4.3%	14.0%	3.0%	2.76	3.71	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	47	210	24	28	8	58%	2.5	8.7%	12.8%	-4.1%	4.8%	5.94	6.63	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	47	210	24	28	8	58%	2.5	8.7%	12.8%	-4.1%	4.8%	5.94	6.63	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	47	210	24	28	8	58%	2.5	11.4%	13.3%	-1.9%	3.8%	5.94	6.08	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TEX	4	4	25	106	17	11	3	100%	6.2	16.4%	10.7%	5.7%	3.1%	5.16	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TEX	4	4	23	97	16	11	3	100%	5.7	16.7%	10.9%	5.8%	3.3%	5.19	5.27	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	TEX	1	1	8	34	6	4	1	100%	8.0	16.7%	10.9%	5.8%	3.3%	5.19	5.27	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	8	36	6	4	1	100%	8.4	16.7%	10.9%	5.8%	3.3%	5.19	4.89	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	142	95	24	100%	6.0	16.7%	10.9%	5.8%	3.3%	5.19	4.89	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		67	52	272	1120	136	69	29	78%	4.1	12.1%	6.2%	5.9%	2.5%	3.87	4.26	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	38	200	823	100	51	21	78%	4.1	12.1%	6.2%	5.9%	2.5%	3.87	4.26	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tim Brennan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	16.4%	10.7%	3.1%	—	5.27	16.7%	5.8%	23	+0.11	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	83
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	80
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	76
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	75
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	74
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	72
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	72
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	71
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	71
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	70
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	69
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	68
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	67
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	67
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	66
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	66
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	66
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	66
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	65
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	65