Carlos Garcia

P Durham Bulls

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	23	MIX2 levels	40	0	63	4.26	3.98	27.5%	10.8%	—	K 22.3% · BB 12.0% · FIP 5.05
2023	24	MIX2 levels	38	2	75	3.70	4.03	26.8%	13.1%	—	K 22.3% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.40
2024	25	AAATB	40	5	64	4.50	3.85	23.7%	12.2%	—	K 20.3% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.00
2027PROJ	28	MLBTB	42	0	44	4.54	4.54	21.7%	10.1%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBTB	15	0	16	4.59	4.65	21.6%	10.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsMatt Ramsey (age 28) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Cody Satterwhite (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%21.7%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	19	1	33	124	35	13	0	5%	1.8	19.2%	13.1%	6.1%	0.0%	0.81	3.14	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	19	1	33	124	35	13	0	5%	1.8	28.2%	10.5%	17.7%	0.0%	0.81	2.17	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	0	25	110	31	12	0	0%	1.9	18.3%	14.8%	3.5%	0.0%	1.07	3.43	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	0	25	110	31	12	0	0%	1.9	28.2%	10.9%	17.3%	0.0%	1.07	2.07	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	26	6	66	281	63	27	9	23%	2.5	17.3%	11.0%	6.2%	4.1%	4.23	5.29	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	26	6	66	281	63	27	9	23%	2.5	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.2%	4.23	4.19	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	63	269	74	29	9	0%	1.6	22.3%	12.0%	10.3%	4.2%	4.26	5.05	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	63	269	74	29	9	0%	1.6	27.5%	10.8%	16.7%	3.3%	4.26	3.98	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	2	75	328	88	43	9	5%	2.0	22.3%	13.1%	9.2%	2.8%	3.70	4.40	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	2	75	328	88	43	9	5%	2.0	26.8%	13.1%	13.7%	2.7%	3.70	4.03	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	40	5	64	279	66	34	6	12%	1.6	20.3%	11.0%	9.4%	2.2%	4.50	4.00	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	40	5	64	279	66	34	6	12%	1.6	20.3%	11.0%	9.4%	2.2%	4.50	4.00	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	40	5	64	279	66	34	6	12%	1.6	23.7%	12.2%	11.5%	2.2%	4.50	3.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TB	42	0	44	186	40	19	5	0%	1.0	21.7%	10.1%	11.6%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TB	40	0	42	179	39	18	6	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	3.1%	4.59	4.65	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	TB	15	0	16	68	15	7	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	3.1%	4.59	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	66	14	7	2	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	3.1%	4.59	4.27	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	90	26	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	3.1%	4.59	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		176	14	327	1391	282	170	38	8%	1.9	20.3%	12.2%	8.1%	2.7%	3.57	4.44	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	9	200	850	173	104	23	8%	1.9	20.3%	12.2%	8.1%	2.7%	3.57	4.44	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	21.7%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.65	21.6%	11.4%	42	+0.11	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	84
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	84
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	83
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	82
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	82
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	82
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	82
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	81
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	81
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	81
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	81
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	81
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	81
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	43	21.6%	10.1%	1.17	4.56
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*