Carlos Garcia
P
Durham Bulls
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 103
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
K%22.4%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 19 | 1 | 33 | 124 | 35 | 13 | 0 | 5% | 1.8 | 19.2% | 13.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 0.81 | 3.14 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 19 | 1 | 33 | 124 | 35 | 13 | 0 | 5% | 1.8 | 28.2% | 10.5% | 17.7% | 0.0% | 0.81 | 2.17 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 25 | 110 | 31 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 18.3% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 1.07 | 3.43 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 25 | 110 | 31 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 28.2% | 10.9% | 17.3% | 0.0% | 1.07 | 2.07 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 26 | 6 | 66 | 281 | 63 | 27 | 9 | 23% | 2.5 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.23 | 5.34 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 26 | 6 | 66 | 281 | 63 | 27 | 9 | 23% | 2.5 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.23 | 4.19 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 63 | 269 | 74 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.3% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 4.3% | 4.26 | 5.12 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 63 | 269 | 74 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 16.7% | 3.3% | 4.26 | 3.98 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 2 | 75 | 328 | 88 | 43 | 9 | 5% | 2.0 | 22.6% | 14.1% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 4.36 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 2 | 75 | 328 | 88 | 43 | 9 | 5% | 2.0 | 26.8% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 3.70 | 4.03 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 40 | 5 | 64 | 279 | 66 | 34 | 6 | 12% | 1.6 | 20.8% | 12.8% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 4.50 | 4.12 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 40 | 5 | 64 | 279 | 66 | 34 | 6 | 12% | 1.6 | 23.7% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 4.50 | 3.85 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | TB | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 43 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 43 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TB | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TB | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.27 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 93 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 176 | 14 | 327 | 1391 | 285 | 178 | 38 | 8% | 1.9 | 20.5% | 12.8% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.57 | 4.47 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 9 | 200 | 850 | 174 | 109 | 23 | 8% | 1.9 | 20.5% | 12.8% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.57 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 22.4% | 11.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.64 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 89 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 84 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 83 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 83 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 83 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 83 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 83 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 83 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 83 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 82 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.71 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .252 | 4.13 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.42 | 3.15 | 307 | 82 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 82 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.96 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.5% | .341 | 4.97 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | +0.01 | 3.75 | 223 | 81 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 386 | 81 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 81 |
| Roman Mendez R 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.13 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .246 | 4.87 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 116 | +0.74 | 4.12 | 230 | 81 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 81 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 21.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 156 | 81 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 80 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 45 | 22.3% | 11.1% | 1.13 | 4.58 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |